Terrific night of soccer

Last night featured perhaps the best clashes of the FIFA U-20 World Cup thus far. All of the matches were extremely close, with Austria defeating Gambia 2-1 on a late goal, the Americans besting Uruguay 2-1 in extra time, Spain getting two goals in extra time to beat the Brazilians, and the Czechs slipping by Japan in a shootout. The Spain - Brazil clash was one of the best games I've seen at any level in a long while. Both teams were terrific, but Spain probably deserved the win on the strength of their chances. It's unfortunate that their first goal came on what clearly appeared to be a handball, though. The replay showed it pretty well, but also illustrated that Gerard Pique had his body between the ref and his hand, so it would have been a tough call to make (however, I still think the assistant should have picked it up).

I'm quite confident that we'll see more of several players from both the Spanish and Brazilian sides in the near future. Six of the Spainards are listed as belonging to powerhouse Real Madrid, including goalkeeping standout Adan. Others belong to such illustrious sides as Barcelona and Liverpool, while Pique is a Manchester United prospect. Another Spanish player who impressed me was Sevilla's Diego Capel, who displayed tremendous pace on his runs down the flank and created several quality chances.

The Brazilians also have their share of stars. Most of them currently play in the domestic league, but many are being targeted by top-flight European clubs. Some, like Real Madrid defender Marcelo and his fellow fullback, David Marinho of Benfica, have already made the jump to European football. My prediction is that other stars, such as striker Alexandre Pato, midfielder Renato Augusto, and goalkeeper Cassio will soon follow.

The other games were also quite good. Erwin (Jimmy) Hoffa, who apparently is nicknamed after the famous American union boss, was surprisingly not picked to start for Austria, as he has been their highest-profile player thus far. However, he came off the bench in the 71st minute, and scored a brilliant goal ten minutes later to take the Austrian side through. Japan outplayed the Czechs for most of their match, but the Europeans were able to preserve a draw until penalties, where their keeper Petr Radek made two great saves to take them through. Set pieces played a major role throughout that match, with three of the four regulation goals coming off penalties and one off a corner. The U.S. also pulled off a late equalizer and an extra-time goal to advance against Uruguay. If tonight's games have even half the drama of last night's, the real winners will be soccer fans!

Most anticipated match of tonight:
Chile versus Portugal, 7:45 ET, Commonwealth Stadium, Edmonton

U-20 Predictions Part Two

Here's my picks for Thursday's games:

Argentina vs. Poland (4:45 PM ET, BMO Field, Toronto)

Argentina were one of the favorites entering the tournament, and have done reasonably well so far. They started poorly, drawing 0-0 with the Czechs, but then hammered a weak Panama squad 6-0. They finished the group stage with a 1-0 victory over North Korea. Their defence has done tremendously well thus far not to allow a goal, but they haven't really faced a quality attacking side. Poland has been inconsistent thus far, pulling off an amazing 1-0 upset of Brazil in the opener but then getting shelled 6-1 by the Americans. They finished the group phase by drawing the South Koreans 1-1, good enough for second place in the "Group of Death, Group D. In order for them to win, they will have to follow the Greek model they utilized to perfection against Brazil: counterattack early and often, defend the middle of the pitch with all hands, and hope for an early goal.
The longer the game goes without the first goal, the better things look for Argentina: Poland will need to score early to have a good chance.Argentina will have to prove that they can score against a strong defence, and will have to spread the ball wide in order to win. I thought that was the chief problem Brazil had in the opener: they became too individualistic, and weren't able to create anything in the packed centre of the field. If Argentina can avoid the frustration that plagued Brazil, patiently wait for their chances, and prevent Poland from scoring, they should be able to take this one.

Pick: Argentina

Zambia vs. Nigeria (4:45 PM ET, Frank Clair Stadium, Ottawa)

This all-African matchup should provide an interesting game. Nigeria have had a good deal of success at this level: they reached the final in both 1989 and 2005, falling to Portugal and Argentina respectively. Their defence has been rock-solid thus far, and they have yet to concede a goal. However, they have only tallied three markers to date. They tied Japan for first place in Group F, but wound up second on goals for, as both sides had equal goal differentials.

Zambia began the tournament with a disappointing draw against Jordan. They looked better in a loss to powerhouse Spain, but saved a great performance for their final game against Uruguay, where they defeated the strong South Americans 2-0 to guarantee a spot in the Round of 16. They're peaking at the right time, and they could challenge Nigeria, but I think Nigeria's defence and experience will be enough to see them through.

Pick: Nigeria

Chile vs. Portugal (7:45 PM ET, Edmonton, Commonwealth Stadium)

This should be the marquee matchup of Thursday night. Chile dominated Group A, and proved the strength of the South American conference, as they only finished fourth in qualifying. They soundly defeated Canada and Congo by 3-0 scores, and tied Austria 0-0 in a meaningless final game. They have proved that they can both score and defend at this level. Portugal has been more inconsistent: they defeated soccer minnows New Zealand, but lost to both Mexico and Gambia. The Gambia game especially hurt, with star Bruno Gama and defender Andres Marques both picking up injuries. If they had their full side, I'd favour them more: as it is, they'll give Chile a run for their money, but I think they will fall short.

Pick: Chile


Mexico vs. Congo (7:45 ET, Olympic Stadium, Montreal)

This appears to be quite a mismatch. Mexico dominated their group, and was the only team to achieve the maximum 9 points from the round-robin phase. Congo barely squeaked through, losing to Chile, drawing Austria, and beating Canada in a game that could have gone either way. Congo will go for it at every opportunity, but their defence needs work: they allowed Canada far too many quality chances in the final game, including several free headers. Mexico is an all-around team, and their class should show through here.

Pick: Mexico

Previewing the Round of 16

On Wednesday, the Round of 16 will begin at the FIFA U-20 World Cup. Here's my breakdowns and predictions for each one of tomorrow night's games. Picks for Thursday night's games will follow tomorrow.

Wednesday:

USA versus Uruguay (7:45 PM ET, BMO Field, Toronto)

This will be an interesting one. The U.S. disappointed with a 1-1 draw in their opener against South Korea, which I saw in Montreal. However, they quickly recovered with a 6-1 demolishing of Poland and a massive 2-1 upset of Brazil. Freddy Adu has had a fantastic tournament thus far, and is perhaps showing the first real signs of living up to his tremendous potential. New York Red Bulls' striker Jozy Altidore has finished clinically thus far, while Sal Zizzo and Danny Szetela have produced well from midfield. Uruguay's team have not been as impressive to this point. They did well in the opener against a strong Spanish side, producing a draw, but barely squeaked out a 1-0 win over dismal Jordan and lost 2-0 to underdogs Zambia in the final group game. With that said, they had already qualified for the next round before the last match, and thus had little to play for. They are still one of the more impressive third-place finishers, along with Brazil, and will give the U.S. a run for their money, but I don't foresee them pulling off the win.

Pick: U.S.


Austria versus Gambia (7:45 ET, Commonwealth Stadium, Edmonton)

This will be an interesting matchup, with defensive-minded Austria taking on a Gambian side that goes for goal at every opportunity. Erwin Hoffer is the one Austrian who receives a lot of publicity, and he did produce a nice goal against Congo. However, that was one of only two goals the Austrians have so far, so scoring may be an issue for them. Against Canada, Austria showed that they can defend well as a team, which should serve them well in this match. Gambia did not look good in their first matches, getting blown out 3-0 by Mexico and barely defeating a weak New Zealand team by a score of 1-0. They rebounded with a nice 2-1 victory against Portugal, but it was a game which could have easily gone either way. There was also some poor discipline from the Gambians in that match, with captain Ken Jammeh sent off for a vicious tackle. He will miss this match, which could additionally play a factor.

Pick: Austria

Spain vs. Brazil (11:15 PM ET, Swangard Stadium, Burnaby)

This will be the marquee matchup of this round. Both teams were considered as strong possibilities to win it all going in. Spain have looked pretty good so far, but the quality of their opposition has been limited. They drew 2-2 with Uruguay, snuck past the Zambians in a 2-1 match, and defeated Jordan 4-2. Scoring has not been a problem for them. The Brazilians have also been able to score at times, particularly in their 3-2 win over South Korea, but have looked suspect on defence. They've allowed 5 goals in 3 matches, which isn't particularly bad, but isn't great either. On offence, they've displayed a lot of creativity, but less finishing. They were unable to break down the 10-man defence of Poland, and could only notch one goal in a surprising 2-1 loss to the Americans. However, I still like them to win. Brazil has a history of coming up big in crucial games at all levels, whereas Spain tends to choke whenever given half a chance.

Pick: Brazil


Japan versus the Czech Republic (11:15 p.m. ET, Royal Athletic Park, Victoria)

The Japanese have surprised me thus far with exceptionally good performances. They've scored 4 goals, and were only shut out in a meaningless group finale against Nigeria. Their defence has also been very solid, as they've only allowed one goal through 3 matches. However, their group did include such easy marks as Costa Rica and Scotland. The Czechs also faced such opponents as North Korea and Panama, who should have provided similar soft targets. They defeated Panama 2-1, but drew 2-2 with the Koreans, giving them 3 goals against in three games. Their opener, where they were able to hold the talented Argentinians to a goalless draw was impressive, though. Their soccer pedigree would suggest that they'd be favoured here, but their lack of offense thus far tells me that the Japanese will triumph.

Pick: Japan

Heartbreak in the rain

So, for a second time in as many months, Canada exits a tournament early. At the Gold Cup, this was due to a ridiculous offside call, but last night in the downpour in Edmonton, much of the blame was placed squarely on the shoulders of a fine crop of young Canadian players. However, They were in a difficult position from the start, due to Gambia's upset of Portugal, and needed to win by three to advance. Credit should go to head coach Dale Mitchell for getting the players to play the more offensive style required, and for finally starting the combination of Tosaint Ricketts and Andrea Lombardo at the front.

Canada looked good early on, with Ricketts and David Edgar having chances inside the first ten minutes. Edgar, perhaps the one well-known star on this Canadian team for his work with Newcastle United, played well outside his normal role in the defence, and posed a serious threat from midfield for much of the match. Ricketts also impressed, much as he did in the game here in Kingston last month. He seems to be able to create chances off both the break and set plays, which should be a tremendous asset for Canada in years to come. However, unlike in Kingston, his final touch was never there Sunday night, and he was replaced going into the second half.

Congo converted one in the 26th minute, somewhat against the run of play. After that, however, it went downhill. The Canadians seemed overwhelmed by the mountain they had to climb, and did not create much until the half. After the break, though, they came out strong again for a while. Jaime Peters created some fine chances off the wing, but the finish was still not there. Lombardo also had some glorious opportunities, but did not have his usual touch. When Congo scored again in the 61st minute, it was obvious the Canadians had lost all hope of advancement.

The game continued to unravel for Canada in the 73rd minute, as goalkeeper Asmir Begovic picked up a deserved straight red for handling the ball well outside his box. As Canada had already made their three substitutions, midfielder Jonathan Beaulieu-Bourgault stepped into net. Looking rather undersized in the jersey and gloves of the 6'5 Begovic, Beaulieu-Bourgault put in a terrific performance in an unfamiliar role, making five saves over the remainder of the game. Canada contintued to press in an attempt to avoid being the first host nation to go goalless in this tournament, and had some glorious chances. Edgar headed one ball just wide, and Lombardo had several fantastic opportunities, including a free header in the dying minutes, but was still unable to convert.

Canada can take both positives and negatives from this tournament. On the bright side, they proved that there is a good quality of young talent coming up. Players such as Edgar, Peters, Begovic and Will Johnson should continue to develop with their European club sides, and will hopefully have an impact with the full national team in the days to come. Canada also demonstrated resilence: they appeared completely outclassed in the initial game against Chile, but had a legitimate shot to win both of the final two games if they had been able to convert some of the excellent chances they produced. This last game also proved that these players can produce an offensive, attacking style of play when required, something that has historically been a challenge for Canada.

However, on the negative side, Canada did not have to face any of the pre-tournament favorites, and still came up empty. Chile have been a surprise, and should give Portugal all they can handle on Thursday, but we really should have been able to do better against countries that are traditionally non-soccer powerhouses, such as Austria and Congo. Additionally, this performance will dampen some of the recent enthusiasm for soccer in Canada, and will prevent Mitchell from bringing much momentum to his new job as the manager of the full national side. Still, I believe Mitchell is the right man for the job. With him working together with assistant coach Stephen Hart, who led Canada to the Gold Cup semis, coaching should not be a problem for Canada.

Thumbs up, and down:

Time to take a page from Dave Hodge's book (he hosts The Reporters every Sunday morning on TSN, which always features a Thumbs up/Thumbs down segment). After each day of games, I'll try to present some lauds and criticisms for various teams and players.

Thumbs up to Jonathan Beaulieu-Bourgault, who stepped into goal for Canada after Asmir Begovic was sent off. It is rare to see an outfield player in the net, and even more rare to see one perform as admirably as Beaulieu-Bourgault, who made five saves and did not allow Congo to score during his appearance between the post.

Thumbs up to David Edgar, who also did well in an unfamiliar role. Edgar, who is normally a defender for Canada and England's Newcastle United, stepped into the midfield against Congo in an attempt to provide some offense. He created some good chances for other players, was effective defensively, and almost scored a couple of goals himself with his head.

Thumbs down to Asmir Begovic. Begovic did not receive much help defensively in Canada's 3-0 drubbing at Chilean hands, and played well against Austria. However, he did not look good on the first goal yesterday night, and made a critical blunder late in the match when he was sent off for handling the ball well outside the area. Begovic made the right play coming out to clear the ball from the Congolese striker, but he should have either chested the ball down and booted it to safety, or waited for it to drop further and volleyed it first time. He's done well with Portsmouth in the English Premiership, and certainly looks to be a solid keeper for Canada in the future, but Sunday will not be remembered as one of his career highlights.

This Week's Coverage:

Tune in tomorrow for my previews and predictions in the Round of 16 games. Wednesday's post will focus on some of the star players still in the tournament, while Thursday and Friday's entries will review the previous night's matches.

A challenge for Canada: breaking down the U-20 possibilites

Canada has a tough road ahead of them at the U-20 World Cup. The opening 3-0 loss to Chile last Sunday, combined with Thursday's 1-0 defeat at the hands of the Austrians, has left the home squad sitting in last place in their group. If this was the full World Cup, they would already be eliminated. However, all is not lost yet, as this championship allows the top four (out of six) third-place teams to advance to the next round. If Canada is able to defeat Congo tonight, they have a good shot at grabbing one of these spots.

Here's how it breaks down. All teams are evaluated based on the number of points they have achieved from the games against the other three teams in their group. Three points are awarded for a win, one for a draw, and none for a loss. If teams are still tied, the first tiebreaker is goal differential (goals for minus goals against). If there is still a tie, the next tiebreaker is goals for, followed by fair play points (which includes the numbers of yellow and red cards handed out to each team), and finally the drawing of lots. The top two teams in each group automatically advance to the knockout phase of the tournament, while the third-place teams are compared across groups, with the top four out of six moving on.

All the matches in Groups B, D, E and F have been played, but so far, the only third place team that have locked up spots are Uruguay and Brazil. Uruguay's surprising 2-0 loss to Zambia in Victoria last night left them even with the African side with four points, but behind on goal differential, leaving them in third place in Group B. However, their four points are likely to be the best among third-place finishers. Groups D and F have their third place teams (Brazil and Costa Rica) both sitting on three points with a -1 goal differential. However, Brazil has four goals for, while Costa Rica only has two. Group E has North Korea already eliminated, as they are in third spot with only two points, which is worse than the current totals of four of the other third-place teams. Thus, Brazil is assured of finishing above both Costa Rica and North Korea, and will not have to worry about today's results.

The important match for Canada to watch will be today's Group C clash between Portugal and Gambia. This fixture, played in Montreal's Olympic Stadium (CBC, 5 PM ET), may provide the Canadians with their best chance to qualify. Portugal and Gambia currently both have three points, but Portugal has a +1 goal differential, while Gambia is -2. Canada, who take on Congo in Edmonton later tonight (CBC, 7:30 PM ET), are sitting on zero points in Group A with a -4 goal differential. If Portugal defeats Gambia by two goals and Canada wins by one, both teams would be at three points, but Canada would advance on goal differential (-3 to -4). This is the most likely scenario for Canadian advancement, and would leave them facing Group B winners Spain. There is yet another possibility to come out of Group C, depending on how New Zealand fares against Mexico, which I'll mention later.

However, there are other options for the Canadians if Portugal draw or lose. If Portugal-Gambia is a draw, both teams would seal a place in the next round with four points apiece. This would mean that Canada would have to defeat Congo, and then beat out Costa Rica in a tiebreak. If Canada win by three, they would be even with Costa Rica on goal differential, and the tiebreak would go to goals for. Costa Rica only have two (both coming against Scotland last night), so even a 3-0 Canadian victory would be enough to go through. This would leave Canada up against Group C winners Mexico in the next round, which would probably be a slightly easier task than defeating European qualifying champions Spain, but not by much.

The remaining possibilities are long shots, but still deserve to be mentioned. If Portugal somehow manage to lose to Gambia, they will also be left on three points. If they lose by two, they would wind up tied with Costa Rica on goal differential. However, they already have three goals for, so they would still advance over the Costa Ricans. If they lose 3-0, and the Canadians win by three, it would be Canada and Costa Rica advancing, with the Portuguese on the outside looking in. Portugal has looked very good in the games I've seen so far, and their star player Bruno Gama appears to be in fine form, so this scenario is unlikely to occur.

There is also the even less likely chain of events where the New Zealand squad manage to go through. They're currently on zero points with a -3 goal differential, so for this to happen, they would have to both beat heavily favoured Mexico and wind up ahead of or tied with the loser of Portugal-Gambia on goal difference. If they tie, they would have to have more goals for, which is also difficult: they haven't notched a goal so far, while Gambia have one and Portugal have three. Yet, in a tournament where Poland defeated Brazil with ten men, but still fell 6-1 to the United States, anything is clearly possible.

Footnotes:

- It has been excellent to see the amount of interest this tournament has generated. The fans have turned out in great numbers across the country, and the quality of the games has not disappointed, in my view. The dramatic upsets, such as the aforementioned Polish games against Brazil and the U.S., as well as Zambia's shocking victory over a strong Uruguayan side, have made the tournament even more exciting.

- There has been plenty of good media coverage as well. Sportsnet deserves recognition for their tournament home page, which made most of the research for this post possible. Their site also features some excellent analysis by my favorite soccer columnist, Ben Knight, and Gerry Dobson, the regular host of their English Premier League coverage. I am also indebted to Fox Soccer's Bobby McMahon, whose blog has offered some terrific coverage of the tournament, and who did a great job of breaking down the possible scenarios for advancement. He also linked me to this FIFA document (page 28),which details the exact tie-breaking process and who plays who. CBC's tournament page also has good coverage, and features columns by such soccer notables as Craig Forrest, Dick Howard, Nigel Reed, and Mitch Peacock, who will be familiar to those who follow CBC's World Cup, national team, and Toronto FC coverage.

- With this competition rapidly approaching the knockout stage, I'm going to attempt to do a daily post on the tournament until it has run its course. Stay tuned!

- Apparently, today is CBC's Soccer Day in Canada. Similar to the annual Hockey Day in Canada, they've been focusing on teams and youth players across the country. Great idea, but I wish they would have promoted it a bit more prominently: I've been watching their U-20 World Cup coverage almost every day, and am a frequent visitor to the sports section of their website, but hadn't heard anything about it until I flipped on the TV earlier. However, they've had some really cool stuff, including an interview with Cory Bowles ("Cory" of Trailer Park Boys fame) who apparently will be starring in a show called "Y Soccer" on CBC Radio. The show is set to take place from 11:30 AM - 12:00 PM each day from July 16-20. Definitely looking forward to it!

- Congrats to the Prince Edward Island women, who recently took home the silver medal in soccer (they used the proper name of football!) in the Island Games 2007, held on the island of Rhodes last week.

- Finally, also on the subject of international soccer, Queen's own former star striker Eilish McConville, a nominee for the BLG Award as Canada's top female university athlete this past year, will be representing Canada in the World University Games this summer.The games will be held in Bangkok from August 8-18. Watch this page and the Queen's Journal website for updates on how the Canadian team does.

Canada is catching on...

It is terrific to see people in this country starting to take a deep interest in soccer. This year has been tremendous for this, with the construction of BMO Field in Toronto, the fantastic support for Toronto FC, Canada's run to the semifinals at the Gold Cup, and now the U-20 World Cup being held in Canada. There's always been some support for the world's game here in Canada, but the interest, and thus the coverage, has grown by leaps and bounds lately. It's been fantastic to have the ability to watch top-quality soccer more frequently. This year alone, Sportsnet has continued to lead the way with their trademark Premiership coverage, but they've also expanded to more Canadian matches than before (even if far too many are tape-delayed), and have started to cover Toronto FC as well. CBC has also rediscovered soccer, picking up some TFC games and televising most of the U-20 World Cup, while The Score has even gotten into the act with a few TFC games and a great soccer talk show.

Outside the TV realm, the rest of the media are also starting to pay some attention. Toronto FC have been getting quite a bit of press, while the U-20 World Cup has become the sporting event of the moment (except for perhaps yesterday's NHL free agent signings!). People are turning out to soccer matches in droves, particularly for the U-20 World Cup. Over 950, 000 tickets have been sold for this tournament, making it the largest sporting event Canada has ever held (yes, bigger than either Olympics to date), which is incredibly impressive.

The quality of soccer at the U-20 level is also very high: I was tremendously impressed with what I saw from the Canadian team in their warm-up friendly in Kingston last month, and the tournament games so far have been even better. I was in Montreal over the weekend for the Poland-Brazil/USA-Korea doubleheader, and both games displayed a tremendous level of soccer talent. If there was any doubt that soccer is now big in this country, the 55, 000 raucous fans under the dome in the "Big O" dispelled it. Canada had a tough time in their opener against Chile yesterday, but if they can turn it around, the interest will continue to build. Even if they are unable to make it out of the group stage, the quality of their players and the massive interest in the tournament here are both great signs for the future.

The cat from Medicine Hat

Trevor Linden is the main reason not named Luongo that the Vancouver Canucks are still in the playoffs and not out on the golf course. He currently leads the team with 6 points, 1 ahead of Taylor Pyatt and 3 ahead of such luminaries as Markus Naslund and Daniel Sedin. However, what's even more impressive is the clutch timing of his points. Both of his goals were game-winners in the Dallas series, coming in Games 4 and 7. He also added an assist in Game 7, and set up the winning goals in Game 3 of the Dallas series and Game 2 of the current Anaheim series. Linden had a solid regular season with 12 goals and 25 points, a considerable improvement over last year's 7 goals and 16 points. In the playoffs though, he has taken his game to another level, as he usually does: there's a good reason that he has an impressive 98 points in 121 career playoff games. Linden has always led by example, and will play a major role in any further success the Canucks may have this post-season.

By the way, if you don't understand the title reference, check out http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nqSMftSKnIg: you'll be glad you did!

Triple showdown in England

The end of this year's soccer season should be incredibly interesting. Manchester United and Chelsea are still only separated by 3 points in the Premiership, will face each other in the F.A. Cup Final, and have a good chance of meeting in the Champions League final as well (United will have to get past A.C. Milan in a home-and-home, while Chelsea must face Liverpool, who are perennially excellent in Europe). United have a terrific shot at repeating their famed Treble success from 1999, while Chelsea could walk away with all four major trophies available to them, due to their League (Carling) Cup victory earlier this year. Both teams have been terrific this year, and have made the Premiership title race one to remember. This weekend, United will host Middlesbrough, while Chelsea travel to St. James' Park to take on Newcastle. Both should be superb games. However, I think the Premiership title is likely to come down to the May 9 meeting between United and Chelsea at Stamford Bridge. It should be a fascinating game, as well as a good preview of the F.A. Cup final and a possible Champions League matchup.

Drug testing gone too far...

Earlier today, UEFA issued a one-game suspension and fine to Bayern Munich star goalkeeper Oliver Kahn. The fine of 20 000 Swiss francs (just over $19 000 Canadian) is not a huge deal, but the timing of the suspensions means he will miss his team's next vital Champions League match, the first leg of the quarterfinals against AC Milan. As Kahn is still one of the world's best keepers, a vital leader on the field, and a key component of the squad's defense, Bayern will have great difficulty taking on the Italian giants without him.

However, the real issue here is not the suspension itself, but what it was given for. Kahn was apparently suspended as a result of a drug test after the team's last Champions League match against Real Madrid. Yet, it was not for testing positive: rather, Kahn (and teammate Lucio, who received a fine, but no suspension) apparently committed the heinous crime of "improper conduct" during his doping test, according to UEFA. The Associated Press story TSN picked up suggested that Kahn insulted the doctor who carried out the tests. The specific details have not been released, but it certainly seems to me that the penalty does not fit the crime: a severe fine would be much more appropriate then being forced to miss a crucial Champions League match. Kahn even sent a written apology to the doctor to UEFA before his hearing. Unless there was much more to this incident then has been released, it seems like a severe overreaction. This is not the only case where football associations have overreacted to side issues from drug tests: after all, Rio Ferdinand was banned for eight months for missing a testing appointment. Doping is definitely a problem, and a threat to fair play, but governing associations in all sports should focus on those who are actually cheating, rather than just punishing those who don't perfectly follow procedure.

NFL Playoffs: For the Want of a Holder.

Last weekend featured some very interesting NFL action. All of the favoured home teams hung on to win, but the best game was far and away the Seahawks - Cowboys match. There were many potential turning points and unusual plays: the overturned spot via video replay (without a challenge by the Seahawks, to boot), the fumble that was first ruled a touchdown and later changed to a safety, the 93-yard kickoff return for a touchdown, and many more. However, it all came down to Tony Romo, so recently hailed as the saviour of the Cowboys franchise, and his inability to set the ball up for a likely game-winning field goal from Martin Gramatica. Romo has my sympathies: it must be incredibly difficult to come so far, carrying a team that often looked hopeless into the playoffs, only to come up short at the last second. He'll likely be able to recover and be a good quarterback down the road, though. By contrast, the Eagles won on a last-minute field goal, at least partially due to the efforts of veteran holder Koy Detmer, signed only earlier in the week. This demonstrates the importance of getting the right personnel for even the smallest roles. Overall, I can't say I'm terribly disappointed to see the end of the Cowboys for this season, and their superstar WR Terrell Owens, quite possibly the most obnoxious man alive.

On to this week's games. I haven't had the stamina to make a full season's worth of predictions, so I figured I'd start now and see how I do.

New England (13-4) at San Diego (14-2)

The Patriots had a solid overall performance against the Jets, but didn't really crank up the effort until the second half. Tom Brady's experience in big games will help them, but I don't think it will be enough to help them best San Diego, whose offense features current NFL MVP LaDainian Tomlinson.

Pick: Chargers


Indianapolis (13-4) at Baltimore (13-3)

The Colts had a decent game last week, knocking off the Chiefs 23-8. Their defence looked as good or better as it has all season (which isn't saying much), but the offence struggled. Star quarterback Peyton Manning was an excellent 30 for 38, but threw three interceptions and only recorded 268 yards. In my mind at least, it is unlikely he'll do better against Baltimore's terrific defence. Manning's 4-6 career playoff record, including a 1-3 record on the road, also spells danger for the Colts. Furthermore, the Ravens should be able to find and exploit the holes in Indy's run defence, ranked worst in the league in the regular season. I like Baltimore here.

Pick: Ravens


Philadelphia (11-6) at New Orleans (10-6)

This one is a little tougher to call. Philadelphia has been hot recently, but the Saints have been great all year. The Eagles did not look particularly strong last week, against a very poor Giants team. I don't think they'll be able to take that performance up enough to beat the Saints. New Orleans has a very balanced offence, with Drew Brees, Deuce McAllister, and, of course, Reggie Bush. Home field will also be huge for them: ask opponents of the B.C. Lions what it's like playing in an incredibly loud domed stadium packed full of hostile fans.

Pick: Saints


Seattle (9-7) at Chicago (13-3)

Seattle barely knocked off the struggling Cowboys last week, due to Romo's missed hold, and did not look particularly strong for most of the season. I can't see their struggling offence doing too much against the terrific defence of "Da Bears", especially with leading receiver Darrell Jackson questionable to play due to a "turf-toe" injury, and D.J. Hackett, another starting receiver, listed as doubtful due to a sprained ankle. For the Bears, Rex Grossman has had problems at quarterback, but he should be able to take advantage of the Seahawks' injury-weakened secondary. The Bears have also been strong on the ground all year, with the running-back tandem of Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson. The only way I see the Seahawks winning is if Grossman screws up monumentally: even so, Brian Urlacher and the Bears' defense might be able to do enough to win the game on their own.

Pick: Bears.

Parity in the Northwest: or, why the NHL's schedule requires revision.

At the end of tonight's NHL games, a vast 2 points separated the Northwest Division's first and last teams. Edmonton led the division with 36 points from 32 games, closely followed by Calgary and Vancouver with 35 each (from 30 and 33 games, respectively). Colorado and Minnesota were tied for last, having picked up 34 points from 32 and 33 games respectively. The rest of the NHL features vastly greater disparities within divisions. The largest gap is in the Pacific Division, where NHL-leading Anaheim's 56 points are 31 more than divisional bottom-feeder Phoenix. In the Central Division, a 27-point gap exists between Nashville and St. Louis, the NHL's lowest-ranking team. The East features slightly smaller divides, with a 20-point separation in the Atlantic between the New York Rangers and the Philadelphia Flyers, a 18-point gulf between Buffalo and Boston in the Northeast, and a 14-point rift between Atlanta and Florida in the Southeast.

This dramatic difference in divisional skill has significant implications for the playoff hunt. Under the post-lockout NHL schedule, teams play each other team in their division 8 times. For the Northwest teams, that works out to 32 games each against teams of similar skill (as indicated by the almost-identical point totals these teams all have at this point of the year). Say that theoretically, each team wins half their games against divisional opposition (collecting 2 points per game), and earns one point from a shootout or overtime loss in half of the remaining games. That works out to a total of 42 points from 32 games. With the NHL's 84-game schedule, this leaves 52 games for each team. Last season in the Western Conference, 95 points were required to make the playoffs. Thus, a team in the Northwest would have to average just over a point per game in their remaining games to reach the playoffs.

In contrast, consider the Central Division's Detroit Red Wings and Nashville Predators. Both get to play 8 games against each of three teams that were well below a .500 record last season: the Columbus Blue Jackets, Chicago Black Hawks, and St. Louis Blues. All are faring almost as poorly this season, although Chicago has improved of late (but is currently still on 33 points, less than the bottom teams in the Northwest). Let's say that the Red Wings or Predators win six of their games against each of their bottom-feeding divisional opponents, lose one in overtime or a shootout, and lose one outright. This would give them each 39 points from these 24 games. Let's furthermore say that in the eight Detroit-Nashville games, each team wins two outright, and the remaining four are decided by overtime or a shootout, with each team winning two of these contests as well. Thus, Detroit and Nashville would have 49 points from their 32 divisional games, as opposed to the 42 calculated for a Northwest team. This may not sound like a huge gap, but consider that last year's margin between the 8th and 9th teams (in and out of the playoffs respectively) was only 2 points in the Eastern Conference, and only 3 points in the Western Conference. If Vancouver, last year's 9th place team, had earned an extra 7 points, they would have been tied with San Jose for 5th place.

This divisional edge is only one of the features of the new broken schedule. It is ridiculous to have a certain team visit your city only once every three years, particularly in an age of exciting new stars such as Crosby, Ovechkin, the Staals, Phaneuf, Malkin and so many more. This is a league trying to market itself around its star players, as was patently obvious from the TV ads they ran this fall. It doesn't help declining attendance in markets like Phoenix or St. Louis if their fans only have the chance to see exciting young stars once every three years. Furthermore, particularly with the back-to-back divisional games favoured by this current schedule, it tends to dilute excitement around watching the game, either in person or on TV. As an example of this, consider tonight's Canucks-Wild game, offered on Canucks Pay-Per-View. Who would want to pay 12 dollars to see this game, shortly after watching the identical matchup for free on Hockey Night in Canada last Saturday? There certainly is a fair bit of resistance to any change, as exemplified by the lack of progress made on the schedule at the recent NHL Board of Governors meeting: however, teams need to stop thinking in terms of what's best for their franchise short-term, and start considering what will be best for the league as a whole in the long run.

Delocalized wingers

This may possibly be the most geeky sports column I have ever written or ever will write, but bear with me. Delocalized electrons are electrons in a molecule that are not directly tied to one specific bond, but rather shared over larger sections of the molecule (for a more complete definition, see the Wikipedia article here.) The classic example of this is benzene, a 6-carbon ring structure usually depicted with 6 single bonds and 3 double bonds: due to delocalization, the actual bonds are actually between double and single character, and spread evenly out over the molecule. This makes benzene incredibly stable.

What relevance to sports does this have, you may ask? Well, it perfectly describes the innovative style of football (soccer for those of you who insist on North American terminology:P) that Manchester United have been playing thus far this season. On paper, their regular lineup appears as the standard 4-4-2 formation (four defenders, four midfielders (two in the middle, two on the wings), and two strikers). However, the key difference this season is how they have been utilizing their wingers.

Ryan Giggs and Cristiano Ronaldo are two of the best wingers in the game, and have been effective in previous campaigns with the standard winger tactics of deep runs down the sides. This year, they have taken things to a new level, via a delocalization process. Giggs usually plays the left flank, and Ronaldo the right, but this year, they both frequently move into the middle or even to the other's side of the pitch. In fact, frequently when watching United this year, Ronaldo and Giggs will combine on one side to form an attacking run, flooding one side of the defence much like the Canadian football or basketball tactic used against a zone system. This creates no end of confusion for opposing defences, and is one of the reasons that United are at the top of the Premiership table. A perfect example of this was United's second goal in the Middlesbrough match. The play developed off an attack down the left flank, but then Ronaldo darted in to the middle from his position on the right, received a cross in the box, came over to the left side of the goal and played a short pass back to Giggs, who delivered a perfect cross that Darren Fletcher headed into the net.

The other reason that this system works is the play of the wingbacks, or outside defenders. The typical problem that faces teams attempting a system like this is that when the wingers move to the same side, the width of the field is decreased, providing less attacking options. However, this is not the case for United. Wingbacks Gary Neville and Gabriel Heinze frequently step up into attack, often even at the same time, and fulfill the winger's role. This also helps when either Giggs or Ronaldo moves towards the middle, drawing the wide defenders with them: Neville or Heinze will then create an overlapping run down the open flank, which has frequently led to excellent scoring chances. Having the wingbacks press forward so aggressively means that attacks on both flanks can be maintained, even with the wingers moving into the middle or to the other side. This system is certainly unconventional, but it works very effectively. As benzene shows with its exceptional stability, sometimes delocalization can be the best tactic!

"Noble souls, through dust and heat, rise from disaster and defeat the stronger."

The title quote, taken from American poet Henry Wadsworth Longfellow, will hopefully apply to the Canadian national women's soccer team. Ironically, their defeat came at the hands of Longfellow's fellow Americans last night, in the CONCACAF Gold Cup final. The Canadians played a strong game, and battled back from trailing 1-0 early, due to a sixth-minute strike from Leslie Osbourne. In the 45th minute, Randee Hermus, a defender from Langley, B.C., equalized for Canada off a corner kick, driving a loose ball just under the crossbar from 12 yards out. In the second half, the U.S. had excellent chances to take the lead, but the respective defences were up to the challenge. Canadian keeper Erin McLeod made some huge saves, and defenders Hermus, Robin Gayle, and Melanie Booth played large roles in nullifying the American attack. Christine Sinclair, a strong contender for FIFA's Female Player of the Year award, could have won it for Canada in the 91st minute when she broke into the box, but her finish went off the side of the net.

The game went into extra time, where the Canadians seemed to tire: the U.S. squad kept pressing forward, and continually created excellent chances for strikers Abby Wambach and Natasha Kai. The Canadian defence showed their quality, and held the Americans off the board for most of the 30 minutes, despite being pinned in their own end for the majority of the extra time. However, tragedy struck towards the end of the game, with yet another controversial refereeing decision. Mexican referee Virginia Tovar, who had already ejected Canadian head coach Even Pellerud in the 86th minute, awarded the U.S. a dubious penalty in the last minute of the match after midfielder Carli Lloyd collided with Gayle in the area. Captain Kristine Lilly coolly stepped up to the spot, and executed a perfect penalty drive to the bottom right corner of the net to give the Americans the victory.

For Canada, the loss is disappointing, but bittersweet: they should be pleased that they were able to take the Americans, who Sinclair described as "maybe the best team in the world" in an interview with Sportsnet, into overtime. They deserved at least to make it to a shootout, and, as often seems to be the case with this country's national teams, were hindered by questionable officiating. However, the US also received some harsh calls during the match, and were the better team overall, demonstrating that they deserve at least their world #2 ranking. This is an important result for the Canadian team to build on: their appearance in the final means that they are already qualified for the 2007 World Cup in China, and they'll have almost a year to prepare for that competition. They've come a long way, and they didn't appear out of place on a pitch with the Americans, as they so often have in the past. Hermus' goal was the first Canada had scored in their last 5 matches against the U.S., and also the first Canadian goal against the Americans since 2003, which is definitely a step in the right direction. Their young players, such as Sinclair and Brittany Timko, are making considerable progress and having an impact on the field, and the defensive performances from Hermus, Gayle, and Booth prove that this squad can have a strong back line without Charmaine Hooper.

The performances during the game are also good news for Vancouver Whitecaps fans: their players, such as Sinclair, McLeod, Hermus, Timko, Martina Franko, and Andrea Neil, provided strong showings on the pitch, and appeared to still be in the form that won them this past year's W-League Championship. Having so many starters from the same club side can only be a good thing for the squad: as a whole, the team showed excellent on-field chemistry, and were very aware of each others' positions. With so many national team players playing together during the W-League season on the Whitecaps, this chemistry can only improve with time. Hopefully, the possible concentration of men's national team players on the new MLS side, Toronto FC, will have a similar effect on that squad, which has been hindered in the past by players' unfamiliarity with each other.

Overall, this should be a positive experience for Canada. They were unable to pull out a victory, but they were in the game against the U.S., and proved that they can compete with the elite sides in women's soccer. This game provides further evidence that their fourth-place showing, the highest ever for Canada, in the last World Cup in 2003, was not a fluke. The young core of this squad should continue to improve under the tutelage of veterans such as Neil and Franko, and hopefully, they can "rise from disaster and defeat the stronger." As the sixteenth-century French philosopher Michel de Montaigne once said, “There are some defeats more triumphant than victories.” As a fan of Canadian soccer, I sincerely hope that this will prove to be one of those defeats.

"No absolute is going to make the lion lie down with the lamb unless the lamb is inside."

The title quote, from D.H. Lawrence, appropriately sums up today's Grey Cup game. The B.C. Lions lived up to their name, and thoroughly devoured the surprisingly lamb-like Montreal Alouettes. There's a very good reason why the Lions dominated the CFL Awards last week: their collection of outstanding talents is unsurpassed in this league, and the big names delivered today. Outstanding Canadian, Outstanding Defensive Player, and Warrior of the Year Brent Johnson, only hours after collecting his new truck for his Warrior of the Year prize, proved he is worthy of his hardware, having a strong game. He and CFL Outstanding Rookie Aaron Hunt, along with front-four compatriots Tyrone Williams and Chris Wilson, had Als' quarterback Anthony Calvillo on the run all day. Hunt played extremely well, and forced Calvillo into a key fumble and turnover, which helped to increase the Lions' momentum. The CFL's Most Outstanding Player, Geroy Simon, made a few key catches, but played a more vital role in drawing the attention of the Als' secondary, and opening space for the other B.C. receivers. Dave Dickenson, named the game's most outstanding player, stepped up and delivered a huge performance. Dickenson was great through the air, and did a terrific job of reading the coverage: however, what played an even bigger role for the Lions was his performance on the ground. In scenes reminiscent of former understudy Casey Printers, Dickenson was fantastic at producing something from nothing: he frequently took off running on broken plays, outmaneuvering the Montreal defence to gain his own first downs. Rob Murphy, recipient of the league's Outstanding Lineman award, and the rest of the Lions O-line, provided tremendous protection for Dickenson, giving him time to pick apart the Als' defence.

However, the aspect of the game that played the largest role in the Lions' victory was their superior depth. It was the role players who stepped up to win the Lions the game. Paul McCallum was fantastic, going 6/6 on field goals to tie a Grey Cup record, and consistently pinning the Alouettes deep in their own end with well-executed punts to the corners. As a reward, he was named both Warrior of the Game and the game's outstanding Canadian. Korey Banks made some huge blitzes from his defensive back position to keep Calvillo under pressure, with one resulting in a quarterback sack. Javy Glatt and Otis Floyd combined for perhaps the most crucial play of the game, where Glatt went over the top of a huge pileup of players to hit Montreal running back Robert Edwards on the Lions' one-yard line, forcing a fumble that Floyd recovered. Ian Smart, most frequently utilized on punt returns, took advantage of the Montreal defense's focus on running back Joe Smith and star Lions' receivers Simon, Jason Clermont, and Paris Jackson, with a 25-yard touchdown run. The score was both the Lions' only major of the game and the first touchdown of Smart's CFL career. Kendrick Jones was also able to find some space as a result of the Montreal secondary keying on the more established receivers, and made some key catches to move the down markers for the Lions. Quarterbacks Buck Pierce and Jarious Jackson also came in and played their roles for B.C. as they had all year, executing well in short-yardage situations to pick up some crucial first downs. The ensemble effort by the entire team was the real reason why the Lions were successful in becoming the 2006 Grey Cup champions.

Gaels win national silver medals

Last Sunday, the Queen's women's varsity soccer team concluded their season in the CIS championship match against the UBC Thunderbirds. Confronted with a grim day and soggy field, they came out aggressively, and took an early lead on a third-minute strike by Renee MacLellan. The Gaels maintained the pressure, and had several chances to extend their lead. UBC responded with two quick goals shortly before the half, and added a third after the break to clinch a 3-1 victory. Anyone interested in more details on the match can check out my article in last Friday's Journal: I'll post a link to it here once it is put up on the Journal website. Despite the loss, the Gaels still had an excellent season, and proved that they are clearly one of the elite teams in the country: they should have a lot to build upon for next year. In particular, the injuries that the squad battled through all season resulted in the formation of a strong team character, and also provided some of the Gaels' younger players with valuable game experience, both of which may prove vital in the coming seasons. Their success this year will also leave the team hungry for more in future seasons, and may possibly result in greater attention and support for them on campus next year.

Update: My Journal article on the final can be found here.