Divisional round playoff predictions

The NFL playoffs are always one of my favourite times of year, and if last week's games are any indication, we're in for a good playoff season. My picks for this round are up over at The Good Point, so go check those out! The game I'm most interested in is the Steelers-Ravens clash, which gets under way shortly. From an impartial perspective, it's one of the NFL's most interesting divisional rivalries, featuring two teams that have been quite good for the last decade and more. They play similar styles, and for those like me who enjoy great defence, they're some of the best franchises to watch. Of course, I'm not entirely impartial, as I've been a Steelers' fan for most of my life, so I'm definitely decked out in my black and gold today as you can see below. Feel free to hurl insults, but the B.C. chapter of Steeler Nation is reporting for duty.

Pigskin Predictions: The Divisional Round

So, I went 1-3 last weekend, which certainly isn't promising. However, it was a rather bizarre weekend of games, and I did beat ESPN's Bill Simmons, who makes about a kajillion dollars more for his writing than I do, so I'm okay with that. The thing is, the NFL is a league of parity; as we often recite, anything can happen on any given Sunday. This becomes even more evident in the playoffs because only decent teams make it this far; the gap between a 14-2 team like the Colts and a 9-7 team like the Ravens is far closer than the gap between the Ravens and the 1-15 St. Louis Rams, so it's much harder to figure out who's going to win.With that in mind, I do have a few thoughts about this weekend's slate of games. As always, these predictions are nowhere near guaranteed and are intended for recreational purposes only.

Cardinals at Saints: (4:30 p.m. Eastern Saturday, FOX)

This should be one of the most entertaining games of the weekend, featuring two high-powered offences. The Saints have dominated for most of the year, but they slumped a bit down the stretch; it will be interesting to see if they can get back into form. Meanwhile, the Cardinals were creamed 33-7 by Green Bay in the last week of the regular season (while playing backups), but '99 Warner showed up last week and destroyed the Packers in the wild-card playoffs, finishing with 379 yards and more touchdown passes (five) than incompletions (four) in a 51-45 overtime win. The Cardinals' defence was absent for much of the game, but they actually got a pretty decent rushing performance out of Beanie Wells (14 carries for 91 yards) and they
got a key defensive play when it mattered in overtime. I agree with Samer that this team seems a lot like last year's surprise Super Bowl-contending edition; in my mind, it's even better because they've added a solid run game and a playmaking defence. I'm expecting Warner to lead them to victory again this week, despite the quality of the opposition. When '99 Warner shows up, you'd better run to the hills.



Pick: Arizona

Ravens at Colts: (8:15 p.m. Eastern Saturday, CBS)

This should be a classic "Battle of Baltimore", featuring the team that packed up and left in the middle of the night against their replacements. Karma would favour the Ravens in this one, but the Colts did finish the year 14-2 (with their only losses coming in games they weren't trying in), while the Ravens barely made the playoffs on the final day. Moreover, quarterback Joe Flacco only completed four passes for 34 yards and was picked off once in the Ravens' first-round victory over the Patriots, which doesn't exactly inspire confidence, especially considering that he's going up against Peyton Manning. However, there are some reasons to favour the Ravens. For one, they're a punishing, physical team on both offence and defence, which doesn't bode well for the Colts, who favour smaller, quicker players. The Colts also struggle running the ball (Joseph Addai doesn't inspire a lot of confidence), and Baltimore's defence might just be good enough to frustrate Manning. For me, the biggest thing going into this game is the lacklustre way the Colts finished the season; they laid down rather than going for 16-0, and I think that will come back to haunt them. That's not thanks to karma, but thanks to timing; football's a game of precise timing, where a millisecond can make the difference between a touchdown pass and an interception. That timing can only really be tested in games, as practices move at a slower speed and with less pressure. I'm guessing the Colts' offence will be a bit out of sync after taking several weeks off, and that could be all the opportunity Baltimore needs. The Colts surrendered too early, and that may hurt them tonight.



Pick: Baltimore

Cowboys at Vikings: (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. Eastern, FOX)

It's tough to figure out who to root for in this game between the team everyone hates (the Cowboys) and the quarterback everyone hates (Brett Favre). It should be an interesting contest, though; both teams have plenty of talent with balanced run/pass offences and strong defences. However, I'm taking the Cowboys based on their recent play. The Vikings struggled down the stretch while Dallas roared into the playoffs and thumped an excellent Eagles team twice in a row. Brett Favre's due to explode any time soon, and Tony Romo and company look surprisingly competent without locker-room distraction Terrell Owens. Plus, Wade Phillips is a slightly more competent coach than Brad Childress. Who doesn't want to be a Cowboy, baby?



Pick: Dallas

Jets at Chargers:

The Jets turned in an impressive performance last weekend, running over the Bengals 24-14 in the wild-card round. However, San Diego is a tougher opponent for them. The Bengals boasted one top receiver in Chad Ochocinco, an easy mark for Darrelle Revis, their star shutdown corner. The Chargers have four great receivers in Vincent Jackson, Antonio Gates, Malcolm Floyd and Legedu Naanee: Revis can only cover one of them at a time, and the rest of the Jets' secondary is merely okay. Moreover, those guys are all 6'4 or taller; Revis is 5'11. That should lead to some jump-ball opportunities, which Philip Rivers excels at throwing and the Chargers' receivers excel at bringing in. They also have a great rushing and receiving threat in RB Darren Sproles. When you factor in the Chargers' momentum over the second half of the season and that the Jets limped into the playoffs mostly thanks to their opponents laying down, this seems like a good weekend to ride the lightning.



Pick: San Diego

Enjoy the games!

On The Ground: Bruce Raffel on the Ravens' tackles

Time to continue my series of supporting interviews for this piece I wrote for The Good Point on the importance of the left tackle. Today's interview subject is Bruce Raffel, editor of the excellent Ravens' blog Baltimore Beatdown. The Ravens' tackle situation is quite an interesting one; they used the first draft pick in their history in Baltimore on Jonathan Ogden, who turned out to be a great franchise LT. Recently, they brought in Jared Gaither to replace Ogden after his retirement. This year, they drafted possibly the most famous left tackle out there, Michael Oher of The Blind Side fame, 23rd overall. Raffel has some very interesting things to say about the Ravens' moves at tackle over the years, so read on!

Andrew Bucholtz: How important do you consider the left tackle position, especially compared to the other positions on the offensive line? How important is a good left tackle to a team's overall success?

Bruce Raffel: While the center position is sort of the "quarterback" of the o-line, the left tackle s the most important piece, as they protect (usually, unless QB is lefthanded) the QB's blind side. Most great pass rushers come from the left side and therefore the best offensive lineman usually plays there. In addition to pass protection, the LT must open gaping holes for the running game as well, which of course, makes the passing game even more successful.


A.B.: What are the most important attributes of a good left tackle?

B.R.: There aren't too many LT's I can think of that don't have that massive size to go along with their incredible athleticism for such big men. Due to the speed rushers of today, the LT must have quick feet to keep up with the defense, but also have the bulk to ward off the bull rush and long yet strong arms to fend off the slap, swim and spin moves of the elite DE's in the league.


A.B.: In your mind, is there a significant difference in the skills required to play left tackle and right tackle?

B.R.: It seems that most teams put their best pass protector on the QB's blind side, which as noted earlier is usually the left tackle position. Both tackles need the size and bulk, but still must have the quick feet to be successful. However, since the best ones play LT, the money for that position is much greater than the right side. Overal, the skill set is similar, but the QB can have a better chance of avoiding a pass rusher from the right side than he can from the left.

A.B.: Obviously, Jonathan Ogden had a tremendous career with the Ravens. When he was drafted fourth overall in 1996, what did you think of the pick? Did you think it was worthwhile picking a tackle so high at the time?

Ogden was the premier LT coming out of UCLA in that draft year, and when trying to build a team for the future, taking the guy who will be protecting your QB's blind side for the next 10-12 years or so is the best place to start (which is why the Detroit Lions should have done the same thing this year rather than take a QB with the first pick). Besides, when you look at the entire career of JO, as he is called here in Baltimore, it looks like we did the right thing, eh?

A.B.: What do you think was the key to Ogden's success in the NFL: physical attributes, game smarts or a combination of the two?

B.R.: JO was a very bright young man when drafted and then became an even smarter player as he matured, both emotionally as well as physically. He watched tape on his opponents and knew their signature moves and was rarely beaten by the same guy more than once. He was also a huge physical specimen who took care of his body which permitted him to enjoy a long healthy career, at least until towards the end of all the abuse he lasted through against the best pass rushers in the league.

A.B.: When Ogden retired in 2008, were you nervous about who the Ravens would replace him with?

B.R: Ravens fans always knew that time was coming, especially towards the end. However, when we grabbed former Maryland Terrapin LT Jared Gaither with the 5th pick in the Supplemental Draft, every Ravens fan knew we had a guy that would have gone in the top part of the first round if he stayed only one more year in college. Having a year to learn from JO was the best thing that could have happened to Gaither, as he had an on the field coach in Ogden.

A.B.: How do you think Jared Gaither has done so far? Do you see him as a long-term solution at left tackle?

B.R.: Absolutely, Gaither is fast on his way to becoming an All Pro at LT. He is a massive human being at 6'9" and 334 pounds, but moves around pretty good for such a behemoth. He already had a great season last year and will only get better. Joe Flacco has a lot of confidence that his back is covered with Gaither entrenched at LT.


A.B.: The Ravens took another tackle high in the draft this year with the first-round selection of Michael Oher. What did you think of the move? Was it made because he was the best player available at that slot, or because the team needed another strong tackle?

B.R.: Most Ravens fans, including me, were looking for a wide receiver with the first round pick. When I heard that we made the trade to move up in the round, I was sure it was to grab either a WR or one of the USC LBs, such as Rey Maualuga, who I thought would be a great transition to Ray Lewis at MLB. However, when they took Michael Oher and his life story came out, it was obvious that he fit the mold of a typical Raven player. Finally when RT Willie Anderson announced his retirement, opening the door for Oher to start at RT right away, it became apparent that this is why our GM, Ozzie Newsome is well known as the "Wizard of Oz."

A.B.: Oher's quite likely one of the most well-known linemen in the NFL already thanks to Michael Lewis' book on him, despite him not playing a down yet. Do you think he'll be able to handle that pressure?

B.R.: The pressure off the field living up to the personal hype is nothing compared to learning the pro game as a starter. The Ravens are keeping him at right tackle as they have a great one in the making already at left tackle. However, Oher was a LT in college and could easily move over if there was an injury, etc. Learning at RT will be a challenge, but I was at Ravens' training camp this past week and while Oher is 6'4" and 310 pounds, there is not an ounce of belly fat on the guy, which is rare for an OT.

A.B.: A lot of the talk so far seems to have Oher as the Ravens' starting right tackle for this coming season. Do you think he'll be able to handle the shift from playing left tackle in college? Do you see him as a LT or a RT long term?

B.R.: If Jared Gaither stays healthy and continues his rapid growth as a fixture at LT, then Michael Oher will become one of the best RT's in the game very quickly. If something happens with Gaither, then Oher would seamlessly slide over to his natural position. Although a LT in college, it will actually be easier to acclimate himself to the speed and challenges of the pro game by learning right off the bat from the RT position, which is far less pressure.

A.B.: How much emphasis do the Ravens as an organization place on the offensive line in general and the left tackle in particular? If you were running the team, how much emphasis would you place on the offensive line positions?

B.R.: Although so many Ravens fans want to see this team get an elite wide receiver and air the ball out, we are not that type of team. We are a defensive-minded team, that earns its offensive success on the ground. Therefore, the O-line's abilities to open holes for the running game will set up the simple passing attack that does not have to be really good, just good enough. And we all know the run game starts with the LT's ability to collapse the line to get the RBs space to run off tackle, or even between them.

Thanks to Bruce for taking the time to answer my questions! Check out his website here!

A Tale of Three Cities...

Three of the football teams I follow all recorded important victories over the past weekend, but those victories couldn't have been more dissimilar. However, there were still common threads and themes between the three games.

First, there was Queen's 43-16 win over Western [myself, Queen's Journal] Saturday. This was particularly interesting, especially when you consider that Western was favoured by many going in. However, the score was rather deceiving.

Queen's offence was missing in action for most of the day, and only created 295 net yards and 18 first downs against Western's 510 net yards and 33 first downs. The lopsided victory was mostly due to the excellent field position Queen's offence was given by Western's 12 turnovers and inability to convert in the red zone. The strong efforts from Queen's defence and special teams also came in handy in terms of field position.

The game was also made more of a blowout by Western head coach Greg Marshall's decision to keep gambling on third downs in an attempt to come back. Five of those 12 turnovers came off turnovers on downs (another three were on lost fumbles and the final four were interceptions). Marshall said after the game [myself, this blog] that he'd rather try risky offensive strategies in an attempt to come back instead of playing it safe to try and keep the score close.

"I don't care if we lose by 100 points. I never do," he said. "We're not going to win the game by punting the football away."

I thoroughly approve: as ESPN's Gregg Easterbrook wrote in his excellent Tuesday Morning Quarterback column a few weeks back, too many coaches are more concerned with keeping the score close in a defeat than trying to win the game. As such, they opt for the safe punts late in the game, even though those do absolutely nothing for their chances of winning. Marshall doesn't subscribe to that theory, and his team lost big as a result, but they could have easily pulled off a comeback win thanks to his bold strategy if a few plays in the third quarter had turned out differently. It's good to see a coach willing to take some risks, and it's important to keep in mind that those gambles led to the one-sided nature of the final score, perhaps making this appear a more decisive victory than it really was. It was a deserved win for the Gaels and an important one, but not the rout the scoreboard seemingly indicated.

The weekend's second blowout victory was less illusory, even though the score was closer. The B.C. Lions destroyed the Hamilton Tiger-Cats [Matthew Sekeres, The Globe and Mail] 40-10 Saturday night, and this one was decided almost right after the kickoff. As Ed Willes of the Vancouver Province wrote after the game, "Two minutes and 14 seconds into the contest at B.C. Place Stadium, the affair lost all pretense of suspense and took on the dreary predictability of a Russian novel, which, come to think of it, is the way most games involving the Ticats have played out over the last seven years."

From a B.C. fan's standpoint, this kind of win was probably good to see, especially considering that it completed the Lions' perfect record in September. It also improved their overall record to 8-5, moving them into a tie for second in the powerful West with the Saskatchewan Roughriders, only one win behind the 9-4 Calgary Stampeders. Still, it came over the 2-11 Tiger-Cats, so it should be taken with a large seasoning of salt. As Stephen Brunt of The Globe and Mail wrote early in September, right after the Tiger-Cats fired Charlie Taaffe and immediately after their last horrible loss to B.C., "The Hamilton Tiger-Cats are terrible, again; they have hit the panic button, again; they are playing out the string, again; and their abused fan base is having its faith severely tested, again." This franchise has been so horrible for so long that it's hard to take them seriously. Thus, the euphoria needs to be kept in check.

The third crucial game of the weekend saw the Pittsburgh Steelers beat the Baltimore Ravens [Alan Robinson, The Associated Press via The Globe and Mail] 23-20 on Monday Night Football, thanks to an overtime field goal by Jeff Reed. This was the least decisive victory of the three, especially considering that the Steelers were heavily favoured going in and they only managed to win thanks to a tremendous second-half comeback. In essence, they pulled off what the Mustangs could only come close to against Queen's.

This game really showcased how fast everything can change in football. For the entire first half, all the commentary centred on how overrated the Steelers were, how good Baltimore quarterback Joe Flacco was and how effective the Ravens' defence was proving against quarterback Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh offensive line. In the second half, Flacco began to make bad decisions, the Steelers' offensive line started to bear up under the pressure, and Roethlisberger picked apart the Ravens' defence, nullifying most of the storylines of the game.

Michael Wilbon, an ESPN commentator who's also a tremendous columnist for the Washington Post, made a great point here about how all the writers at the game were starting to scrap their columns after the half, something I've always found very interesting. With the instant nature of deadlines these days, reporters and columnists frequently have to have their pieces almost completely written before the final whistle. I've done this myself on many occasions, and it's no problem in the case of a blowout (such as Queen's 58-14 win over U of T [myself, Out of Left Field], where I had to file right at the end of the game in order to catch the bus back], but it's much more difficult in a close contest. The brilliant Joe Posnanski described this much better than I ever could in this post. Here's the highlights, about the Yankees' stunning comeback in Game 4 of the 2001 World Series:

"Now at this point I should mention that experienced sportswriter — that is, sportswriters smarter than me — have a little trick they use when on a pushbutton deadline. They write what I like to call the adjustable column. That is they write a column that leans one way but, in case of emergency, glass can be broken, verbs can be reversed, adjectives can be turned and so on. I did none of these things, of course. The ultra-rich Yankees finally going down — and to a team in only its fourth year of existence — deserved something more than an adjustable column. It deserved the works. And so I wrote it, the Yankees is dead, it’s been a nice run, the Diamondbacks had too much pitching, hell, I don’t remember it all but I know it was confident and unwavering and Kim got Jeter out on a bunt, he struck out Bernie, man on, two outs in the ninth and I was about to send the thing …

And you know what happened. Tino hit the home run. Yankee Stadium went nuts, I guess, though I don’t remember that. Here’s what I remember: Staring at my screen at all these little words I had written, words that now might as well be in Pig Latin, words that now looked like the code in the Matrix, words that could not possibly be more worthless. I remember that feeling … like my head was about to explode. I remember looking to see if I had left any adjustable sentences in the column (“The Yankees are NOT dead?”). I remember going into a few seconds of sheer panic. I had no column. Nothing. If the Yankees won the game (and of course they would win now) I had absolutely nothing to send to the paper.*

*I’ve had nightmares like this … seriously. A lot of sportswriter friends have had nightmares like this — deadline hits, and you have a blank screen and no idea what to write and no clue what to do. I think this is the sportswriter version of the go to work in your underwear dream.

So … what to do? Well, of course I started a new file and just began typing madly, something, anything, whatever thought came to mind, not unlike this blog I suppose. It was sheer stream of consciousness, nothing but typing, and when Derek Jeter hit his home run with two outs in the bottom of the 10th (off poor Kim, who must have done something to really tick off Bob Brenly), I had some sort of mishmash of words. My phone was ringing — SEND THAT COLUMN — so I sent it without even reading it."

As Posnanski points out, you almost have to have two entirely different stories or columns ready in a close game, and then just choose whichever's appropriate for the final score. The problem with this is that you can't usually write anything too nuanced: you have to usually pick an angle for each and run with it, and that means that the other side will be diminished out of necessity, even if it's just as legitimate.

For example, in this case, you could have written a great game story focusing on the play of rookie quarterback Flacco, and it would have been absolutely appropriate if the Steelers had missed that OT field goal and the Ravens had gone on to win. You also could have written a story about Roethlisberger's experience getting the better of Flacco and the Ravens, which would not have been appropriate at all for the first half of the game but made sense in the end.

The problem is that the truth is really somewhere in the middle: both quarterbacks were good and bad at various times during the game, so it's tough to argue that a long field goal curving just inside the upright instead of bouncing off dramatically changes Roethlisberger into a hero and Flacco into a villain. Their performances really weren't all that different if you look at the whole night.

Unfortunately, it's awfully hard to write those middle-of-the road nuanced stories well, as you can't focus on an angle and you often come off as wishy-washy. I'm not saying we should get rid of angles: on the whole, they're a tremendous boon for sports journalism and they make articles much more interesting. My point is just that it's important to keep in mind how small the difference between victory and defeat can be, even if that isn't always reflected in the post-game coverage.

Overall, Queen's fans should probably be the happiest with their team's performance this past weekend. The Gaels knocked off the No. 2 team in the country by a considerable amount, and also proved they can win without a dominating performance from their offensive stars. Their fans should bear in mind that the score was somewhat deceiving, but Queen's has a nice easy match-up this weekend against the 0-5 York Lions.

Lions' fans can also take several positives from last weekend's game. Their team is now running like a well-oiled machine instead of the sputtering clunker we saw at the start of the campaign. Also, they appeared far more dominant on the gridiron than either the Gaels or the Steelers and controlled the entire game. Still, the quality of the opposition has to be considered and the utter incompetence of the Tiger-Cats has to dilute the thrill of victory somewhat. It will be interesting to see how they do tonight against a slightly better team, the Toronto Argonauts.

For Steelers' fans, things aren't nearly as rosy. Yes, they proved that they can come from behind, but they were not overly impressive for most of the game against a less-than-dominant Ravens' team. They also lost key running back Rashard Mendenhall to a season-ending injury [The Associated Press] Monday, and wound up having to go to Mewelde Moore, who started the season as the fourth-string back. Given how important the run game is to Steeler football, that doesn't bode well for the season. They also face the toughest test of any of these teams this week, as they'll have to take on the Jacksonville Jaguars this Sunday. That game should tell us a lot about this Steelers team and their prospects this year.