NHL to Hamilton conference call, part II: Vagaries of the application

One of the interesting things that came out of yesterday's media conference call on the filing of the official application to move the Phoenix Coyotes to Hamilton was the information about the NHL's application process. The application covers the territory required by NHL By-Law 36.5, and there are some curious inclusions and omissions there.

First, the application includes substantial information about the Coyotes' financial picture in Phoenix. Here are four of the key points made in the application, excerpted word-for-word from the media backgrounder I received:

"- Since inception the Club has recorded cumulative EBITDA losses in excess of $316 million.

- The Club has been unable to generate a significant fan base in Glendale demonstrated by a lack of interest in attending a game live, with the Club ranking 5th in attendance interest in that market behind the NFL, MLB, NBA, and NCAA Football. Historic support is weak, attendance is low, ticket sales continue to decline and broadcast ratings are low.

- Management of the Club has attempted to restructure its operations in an effort to increase revenues and decrease costs to reduce operating losses, and bring a greater probability of financial sustainability. Even with the most optimistic of planning assumptions the five-year horizon in Glendale projects further losses of over $40 million.

- In an effort to secure additional investors or a buyer to help meet responsibilities towards all creditors, current owner Jerry Moyes engaged an experienced adviser and retained Citibank’s Private Banking Group. There was not one expression of interest or an offer of any magnitude that would pay most of the creditors and keep the Club in Phoenix/Glendale."

There's enough material in those four points for a whole series, and some of it will be discussed in greater detail in my upcoming posts on the matter. However, the key thing to notice for the moment is the specific numbers included: cumulative EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortization) losses of $316 million and projected future losses of $40 million under "the most optimistic of planning assumptions."

What are "the most optimistic of planning assumptions"? Application author Tom Wright (whose role I explored in more detail here) had some interesting comments on the Coyotes' past and future financial prospects on the conference call, including those details.

"We had access to all the financial details of Mr. Moyes," Wright said. "In its 13 seasons [in Phoenix], the club has never approached a profit. ... The club is not financially viable and the prospect for it to become financially viable is not there either."

Wright stated that "the most optimistic of planning assumptions" case considered almost doubled ticket prices and an attendance increase of 20 per cent, both of which would be highly unlikely to succeed on their own but appear ludicrously unbelievable in combination. "Even then, the club is projected to lose $40 million dollars," he said. If anyone still believed that the Coyotes were viable in Phoenix in the long run, those details probably crushed that idea.

What's interesting is that the application goes into nowhere near as much financial detail about the new market. Here's some excerpts from the part concerned with Hamilton:

"Research clearly demonstrates Hamilton is a vibrant and viable hockey market. Based upon population, demographics, and the result of quantitative research conducted in May 2009, the support for an NHL team in Hamilton will be strong and substantial.

- Hamilton and the surrounding area have 1.4 million people and favourable demographics to support a team. While by itself, Hamilton and surrounding area is a large enough hockey market to viably sustain an NHL franchise, this specific market area is situated in Southwestern Ontario, a market area of more than 7 million where hockey is deeply entrenched and widely supported.

- The median after-tax income of Hamilton Area Residents is 14% above the Ontario average and is a key indicator of residents’ ability to spend for sports events and merchandise.

- The Club will play its home games in Copps Coliseum. A complete renovation plan has been prepared by Stadium Consultants International (SCI), of Toronto, a subsidiary of BBB Architects. The fully renovated arena will comply with the design requirements set out in the NHL’s Facility Standards.

- The owner of PSE is Jim Balsillie. Mr. Balsillie is the Co-CEO of Research In Motion (RIM.) He is a businessman, philanthropist, community leader, and passionate hockey fan. He has been recognized throughout North America and internationally as a visionary entrepreneur, influential CEO, and an extremely competent business leader. His roots in Southwestern Ontario are deep and his community contributions exemplary.

- Under Mr. Balsillie’s direction, PSE has represented, to the extent that it would even be required, its willingness and ability to sustain losses during the initial years of operation."

It's curious that the application involves so much detail about the financial history and prospects of the team in Phoenix, but only includes data about the Hamilton market and arena without any concrete estimates of the team's profitability. The last point about "a willingness and ability to sustain losses" is also interesting. Wright and Balsillie spokesman Bill Walker made some good points on that subject, and indicated that the last commitment there was mostly a pro forma one expected by the league rather than a prediction that the team could lose money initially.

"Mr. Balsillie thinks the team would be profitable immediately," Walker said. "Mr. Balsillie's view is that the team in Hamilton would be an immediate success, a sellout or close to sellout."

"We know it's a large market, we know hockey is the number-one sport in that market," Wright said. "There's every indication the team will be profitable right from the get-go."

That's what I'd certainly imagine too. Even Bettman's NHL recognizes the value of the Southern Ontario market, something I've written about a lot. It is interesting that their application doesn't appear to require specific financial estimates, though. Obviously, those would be difficult to make before ticket prices are set, broadcast deals are made and arena renovations are complete, but I would still have expected to see a few more details.

This series will continue tomorrow with more information gleaned from the conference call.

Campus Corner: Gibb leaves Queen's to go pro

Photo: Ryan Gibb makes a save against RMC forward Josh Fudge Jan. 23. (Joshua Chan photo for the Queen's Journal)

It's been a painful couple of months for some of Queen's varsity teams. Last month, star football running back Mike Giffin and hockey forward Brady Olsen both decided to leave the university level and explore opportunities in the pros, in the CFL and Central Hockey League respectively. Giffin made the CIS first all-star team this year, finished third in the country with 1,157 rushing yards, and shattered school records in rushing, scoring, carries and touchdowns. He was drafted 17th overall by the Hamilton Tiger-Cats. Olsen put up team-high offensive numbers this year with nineteen goals and 32 points, and signed a pro contract with the Rapid City Rush.

Now, another star has left the Gaels. Ryan Gibb, the goalie who was named this year's OUA East MVP and was the 2007 OUA Rookie of the Year, is moving on to the Laredo (Texas) Bucks of the Central Hockey League. Gibb has probably been the most important member of the hockey team over the last couple of seasons. His CIS-best .929 save percentage played a huge role in the Gaels' division championship this year, and he was between the pipes for 11 of their 13 wins. Without his play, they may not have made the playoffs either of the last two years: in fact, the Journal's 2007 end-of-year Darts and Laurels (before I was on the editorial board) praised Gibb as "the only reason the men were able to make the playoffs this season".

Coach Brett Gibson obviously sounded a little depressed in the press release on the subject. “It’s extremely hard to lose a player the calibre of Ryan Gibb,” said Gibson. “He was a key component of our team and we enjoyed success because of his impact play. Without question he will be missed, but this is a highlight for our program. Not only have we seen some accolades within the league, but our program has been noticed by some professional teams – that’s a positive.

Fortunately, the Gaels have a solid backup option in Brady Morrison, another goalie with OHL experience who played reasonably well last year. The difference between winning and losing has been razor-thin for this team, though, so it's not looking hopeful for next year with both their top scorer and their starting goalie gone. At least they now have an arena (the Memorial Centre), but it remains to be seen how well they'll play in it.