On Rolen, Halladay and why Ricciardi must go

So, Friday's Scott Rolen trade upset me (and many other Jays' bloggers) considerably, as you probably already know if you follow me on Twitter. I already broke it down a bit in my Last Call post at The Rookies Friday night, but I figured it was worthy of some further analysis. Without further ado, let's get to it.

First off, let's consider what the Jays lost. Rolen was hitting .320/.370/.461 in Toronto this year with an OPS+* of 122. Looking at Baseball Reference's batting leaderboards for this season, that's the 30th-highest OPS+ in the entire AL and the second-highest on the Jays (behind only Adam Lind). Even more impressive is when you compare Rolen's OPS+ to that of other third basemen; only Michael Young (137), Alex Rodriguez (135) and Evan Longoria (127) rank ahead of Rolen among third basemen (Kevin Youkilis is also ahead of Rolen with an OPS+ of 145, but he's only played 29 games at third this year and has played 59 games at first base, so he doesn't really count). Thus, he's having a pretty incredible year offensively. Part of that's because of his BABIP (batting average on balls in play) of .347, which likely isn't sustainable. However, Rolen's offence isn't necessarily an outlier, though. His numbers this year are above what he's done in his last couple of seasons, but slightly below his career average of .280/.370/.500 with an OPS+ of 124.

*For those unfamiliar with it, OPS+ basically takes OPS (on-base plus slugging) and adjusts it for park, league and era factors. More details can be found here. It's a convenient way to compare different players' batting skills. 100 is generally considered to be league average.

Yet, Rolen's bat is often mentioned behind his glove, and he's been very good in the field as well. John Dewan's Fielding Bible plus/minus system (basically, adding points for making plays others at the position miss and taking away points for missing plays others at the position make) ranked Rolen as the fifth-best third baseman in all of baseball from 2006-2008 with an impressive +47 rating. He made plenty of spectacular stops, as this Top 10 list from Ian Hunter over at Blue Jay Hunter showcases, but he was also good at making difficult plays look easy. The plus/minus stats for this year aren't out yet, but FanGraphs' fielding stats have him taking a bit of a step back; his fielding numbers are still very good, though. Rolen will be difficult to replace, both at the plate and in the field. Some will argue that he's due to regress, as he is 34, but his production this year is a considerable improvement over last year. He'll likely be very good for at least this year and the next, and perhaps even longer.

Now, let's consider what the Jays received in return from the Reds. They got third baseman Edwin Encarnacion and pitchers Josh Roenicke and Zach Stewart. Encarnacion is much less of a threat at the plate than Rolen; he's hitting .209/.333/.374 this year, with an OPS+ of 85. Now, that is slightly less than his career averages of .262/.345/.449 and an OPS+ of 102, but even those numbers aren't incredibly good. For a great defensive third baseman, his career numbers would pass muster, though.

Unfortunately, Encarnacion is anything but. He has an Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR, explained here) of -6 and a UZR/150 (UZR per 150 defensive games, so basically averaged over a season) of -23.1 this year. That's considerably worse than his career UZR/150 of -12.1, which is bad enough on its own. By comparison, Rolen has a UZR of 4.8 so far this year and a UZR/150 of 7.9, and his career UZR/150 is 7.9. Encarnacion's career stats are lacking both at the plate and in the field, and he appears to be getting worse, not better, in both areas. Also, he's already 26 and is in his fifth season in the majors, so it doesn't seem too likely that he'll suddenly morph into an amazing player. Maybe a change of scenery will do him good, maybe it won't.

In my mind, the Jays would be better off going with Jose Bautista at third; he's hitting .243/.365/.322 this year with an OPS+ of 91. That's a bit better than Encarnacion, especially in the area of on-base percentage, and the Jays could use a guy who gets on base more than another power hitter with on-base issues. Moreover, Bautista has a UZR of 1.2 and a UZR/150 of 11.6 in 139 innings at third this year; that's even better than what Rolen has offered in the field this year, at least by that measurement.

Now, if Rolen was moved to make way for Bautista, this trade makes much more sense. It doesn't sound like that's the case, though, given the limited use of Bautista so far this year despite promising signs. Moreover, chief moron-in-charge general manager J.P. Ricciardi has already spoken glowingly about Encarnacion, saying "We got a younger player at third base with a little bit more power." I don't quite get how moving from Rolen's .461 slugging percentage (.500 career) to Encarnacion's .374 (.449 career) is an upgrade. However, Ricciardi is the man who famously said "They're not lies if we know the truth" after misleading the Toronto media about an injury to B.J. Ryan, so this is positively logical by comparison.

Let's take a look at the other players involved in the trade. Roenicke and Stewart both have some potential, and Stewart's perhaps the key player; he's been highly touted by plenty of commentators and analysts for his performance in the minors, and he's only 22. Roenicke is 26 and has started to make his mark as a reliever this year (a 2.70 ERA, 1.28 WHIP (walks plus hits per inning pitched) and a 164 ERA+ (ERA adjusted for park and league factors) in 13.1 innnings this year in the majors). Stewart has a combined ERA of 1.52 and a WHIP of 1.28 in 124 innings over the past two seasons in the minors, and many of those innings came at the AA and AAA levels. Those numbers are certainly impressive and renowned ESPN analyst Keith Law is high on both pitchers, according to Bergkamp over at Drunk Jays Fans, so they could turn into something good. We'll have to see how they do as time goes on.

Thus, this trade makes some sense from a time-independent baseball perspective. Encarnacion is relatively useless, but he could improve. This could also clear the way for Bautista. The pitchers have a lot of potential, and even though Rolen was having an amazing year, he wasn't going to be productive forever.

From a time-dependent perspective, though, it hurts. The team's been telling everyone for years that they'd make a big push in 2010, and it certainly seemed very plausible considering the return of Shaun Marcum and Jesse Litsch and the likely promotion of Travis Snider. That was the main strategy they were using to keep all of us Jays fans interested throughout the last couple of poor years, and it worked for a while.

The first cracks in the facade came with the discussions of trading Roy Halladay, though, as that's clearly not a move to make if you're trying to contend. That didn't happen, but it wasn't for lack of trying. However, if you listen to Ricciardi's comments in Bruce Arthur's National Post column, the 2010 plan is still on: "'If we're going to keep Doc here, which we want, then to take away the other parts that are going to help us be a good club going forward would have been counterproductive,' Ricciardi reasoned Friday."

That's what Jays' fans want to hear, but the trade of Rolen demonstrates that it's patently false. If this team's planning to contend next year, they need a good third baseman. Encarnacion certainly isn't that guy and Bautista probably isn't. No, Rolen was moved to save $5.25 million and to pick up prospects who may someday contribute. Drew Fairservice from Ghostrunner on First accurately called it "a cold-blooded salary dump that has taken the best third baseman of his generation out of town." That's not the move of a team trying to contend, it's the move of a team rebuilding for the future, regardless of what comments are coming out of Ricciardi's mouth. Also, I find it a little hard to buy the "personal reasons" line he used, especially considering how similar it is to the comments he made to justify trading Troy Glaus for Rolen back in 2008.

However, failing to get deals done for Halladay and other veterans such as Marco Scutaro and Lyle Overbay demonstrates that the Jays aren't wholly committed to this rebuilding plan. It's as I commented Friday on Twitter: they can't even figure out how to hold a fire sale properly. Going for it next season and acquiring extra players in the offseason is risky, but could offer a massive payoff. Personally, it's the strategy I favoured, which is why I would have loved to see them keep both Halladay and Rolen. Dealing the veterans now and going into a full-fledged rebuilding campaign is safer and could let the team compete four or five years in the future. The middle road, of keeping some veteran talent but not making the necessary moves to give them a chance to win, accomplishes nothing. Unfortunately, it's become the standard one in Toronto, and that's why the likes of Arthur and Yahoo! Sports columnist Jeff Passan are calling for Ricciardi's head on a silver platter. Let me quote a bit from them:

Arthur: "If this team is loading up for 2010, it's happening at Wal-Mart.

And you still have Ricciardi. Maybe the kids coming back in the Rolen deal turn into something, and maybe this team has some better building blocks, and blah blah blah. We've heard it all before. Nobody buys what J.P. is selling anymore, whether it's his plan for the future or the best pitcher in baseball.

This should be the beginning, at long last, of the end. This should be the last act of J.P. Ricciardi's overlong, acrimonious, gaffe-prone and soul-deadening reign as the man in charge of the Toronto Blue Jays. We've seen the man behind the curtain. He's exactly who we thought he was."

Passan: "There is a fundamental and simple truth to success in the world of commodities: sell high.

Usually, it’s a guessing game. Which makes the case of J.P. Ricciardi and his absolute murdering of the Roy Halladay(notes) trade market that much more egregious. He didn’t have to speculate. He knew the value of Halladay would never be higher than it was for the past three weeks. He understood that the second the clock hit 4 p.m. ET, he would be staring at his very own Black Friday.

And do you know what he did, the Toronto Blue Jays general manager who has overseen a truly mediocre (616-619) team for nearly a decade and lavished $126 million on the underachieving Vernon Wells(notes)? Guess how he handled his chance to remake a franchise that in the cutthroat American League East dances the dance of inconsequence year after year?

He bungled the whole thing. He held when every iota of logic oozed sell. If that alone isn’t a fireable offense – and it is – surely combined with the Blue Jays’ performance and the Wells contract has Ricciardi earned his way to unemployment."

Jeff Blair of The Globe and Mail seems to have taken issue with my "fire sale" comment in the opening bit of his piece, but he's still quite critical of Ricciardi's actions as well. He does make the valid point that the Jays may still be able to get a good bit for Halladay in the offseason, as more teams may feel they have a shot of contending then, but in my mind, only having him for one season instead of two potential playoff runs will cancel that out. Like the others, Blair seems rather unimpressed with the Jays' long journey to the middle under Ricciardi. As he concludes, "Nothing that happened yesterday will remove the doubts lingering over this team – that they have just slightly interested ownership and no direction, bouncing from crisis to crisis while awaiting a 2010 payroll that will likely be right in the middle of the major-league scale. Welcome to life in baseball’s middle class. Sucks to be us, doesn’t it?"

And that lack of direction is the crux of it, for me. This is perhaps, but only perhaps a defensible baseball move, but even that's only if it's accompanied by the logical accompanying moves. It hasn't been, and that's a problem. Moreover, it has instead been accompanied by a bodyguard of conflicting nonsensical moves and explanations from Ricciardi, and that's an even bigger problem. His five-year-plans have turned into eight years of dithering. I was never really confident in his leadership, but I've now lost what faith I once had. I'll follow this up later with a post about the way forward for the Jays, but for now, it's enough to say that Ricciardi must go, and the sooner, the better. I'm not sure of the ideal candidate to replace him at the moment, but I'd take almost anyone over Ricciardi at this point. At least they'd be likely to have a plan.

A requiem for the Jays

Today's loss to the Tampa Bay Rays (47-39) dropped the Toronto Blue Jays (43-44) below the .500 mark for the first time this season, which, sadly, is probably a more accurate reflection of this team's ability than their 22-12 start that gave them the best record in the American League [Jerry Crasnick, ESPN.com]. That early start was largely piled up against weaker opponents, and was also aided by some incredible performances from unlikely pitching stars. Since then, the Jays have fallen back to earth.

This still isn't a bad team, though. The Jays aren't the best team in baseball by a long shot, but they are a bit unlucky and have a knack of losing close games by a run or two, as this most recent sweep by Tampa Bay has demonstrated; the Jays fell 3-1, 10-9 and 3-2 in a series of very winnable games that dramatically hurt their record and their playoff chances. Their Pythagorean win expectation (which suggests what a team's record should be based on runs scored and allowed) was at 46-40 after yesterday's game, not a huge difference in terms of pure games, but one that would have them right behind Tampa Bay and theoretically in contention for at least a wild-card playoff berth. Instead, the Jays have put up plenty of runs in blowout wins, but not enough in the close games. The playoffs would still be a long shot if their record sat at 46-40, but a bit of luck as to which games runs showed up in would make things seem a bit more rosy than the current gloomy atmosphere.

When you consider that the pitching rotation has been held together with dreams and duct tape this year, even a 43-44 record is impressive. Soon after the start of the year, four of last year's five regular starters were out of commission, with A.J. Burnett lost to the Yankees in free agency and Dustin McGowan, Shaun Marcum and Jesse Litsch all likely out for the season thanks to injury. The lone survivor was the staff ace, Roy Halladay, who has been outstanding as usual this year (2.79 ERA, 154 ERA+, 10-3 record), but has faced minor injury problems of his own and missed a few games. Moreover, he also may not be around for long, if general manager J.P. Ricciardi's claims about listening to trade offers for him [Jeff Blair, The Globe and Mail] are to be believed. Pitchers Ricky Romero and Scott Richmond have stepped up admirably (145 and 117 ERA+ respectively), and Brian Tallet and Brett Cecil have been okay, but it's awfully difficult to contend in the toughest division in baseball with a pitching staff composed of spare parts. The relief side's been impressive as well, particularly closer Scott Downs (213 ERA+), but also Jason Frasor and Shawn Camp (168 and 113 ERA+ respectively).

The position players have been even better. Aaron Hill is having a season at second base that would put Roberto Alomar to shame, hitting .298/.336/.496 with 20 HR and 59 RBI and making highlight-reel plays in the field. Marco Scutaro is lighting it up at shortstop and batting .283/.382/.413, while Scott Rolen's hitting .330/.390/.486 and Lyle Overbay's batting .254/.375/.469. The lineup's dragged down a bit by the likes of Alex Rios and Vernon Wells and the odd decision to keep using Raul Chavez as a part-time catcher; Chavez has a good arm and is decent defensively, but he has the bizarre statistic of having a batting average exactly equal to his on-base percentage (both .262); he hasn't drawn a single walk in 85 plate appearances. Still, this is a strong batting lineup; Toronto's team OPS+ of 104 is fourth-best in the American League, and their team OBP of .340 is seventh-best.

In any case, this season is likely a lost cause. It would be tremendously difficult to come back even into the wild-card race at this point in time, particularly considering the strength of the Jays' own division. Not all is lost, though, and that's why the recent rumours about the Halliday trade strike me as odd. Halliday is still locked up for the next year, and keeping him around would give the Jays a plethora of pitching talent; Litsch and Marcum are likely to be back, McGowan may be back as well, and Romero and Richmond are also in the mix for the rotation. Tallet could return to the bullpen, perhaps joined by Cecil, and the Jays would have one of the better pitching staffs in the league. Moreover, if their hitters can keep up their production from this year and perhaps even underacheivers like Wells and Rios can be swapped out for prospects like Travis Snider or free agents, this team could be a powerhouse that could compete for the division title.

The window of opportunity is limited, though. With the strength of the AL East, it's very difficult to compete with Boston and New York year-in and year-out, especially when your attendance numbers are among the worst in the league. Toronto fans aren't going to the ballpark in numbers any more, and it's difficult to blame them; although it's still a lot of fun to go catch a game, the team hasn't been in contention for what feels like forever. That leaves ownership with a tough decision to make. They could cut payroll to a lower level and trade away Toronto's established assets for prospects, hoping to contend down the road, but that's likely to hurt attendance even more and isn't any guarantee of success.

The other option is to roll the dice. Keep Halladay for now and be active in the off-season, either via trading prospects for established players or signing players in free agency to buttress the roster. Try to resign him to a long-term deal before the next season starts, or hope that success will be enough motivation to convince him to come back. Spend big for a year or two and go for broke; a winning team will produce buzz, increase attendance and pay off the cost of the acquisitions, especially if they make the playoffs.

The status quo isn't particularly helpful, as the Jays are good enough to raise hopes and avoid high draft picks, but bad enough not to come close to the playoffs. To me, there's little point in trying to blow the roster up and start from scratch when the team is potentially so close. In my mind, the better option is to try and win within the next couple of seasons, when the team's still close to the top. The requiem for this season has been written, but there's still a lot of hope for the future.

Jays: What else can go wrong?

Update: Jeff Blair of the Globe and Mail sees things much the same way I do: that's some validation!

That baseball injuries list I posted yesterday seems to have been ominous: news came out late yesterday that Blue Jays' third baseman Scott Rolen fractured his finger in a fielding drill. Perhaps it was bad karma, coming on the same day as the Jays finally decided to end the controversy in left field by cutting Reed Johnson.

As the Globe's Jeff Blair pointed out, this injury is a severe problem for the Jays and their strategy for the year. "And now it's all out of whack: the lineup, the defence (Rolen's range at third base was supposed to offset the net defensive loss of having David Eckstein start at shortstop over John McDonald) and the karma, for what that's worth," he wrote. "Bad day, indeed — and there's still six more to go before it begins counting."

Dustin Parkes from the always-excellent Drunk Jays Fans has more on the woes that have hit Toronto this preseason. "In no way do I believe in religion, mysticism or any other made up thing, but I'm willing to go out on a limb to suggest that Jesus has an enormous voodoo doll of the Toronto Blue Jays and really gets a kick out of plunking it with needles that he sharpens on the hooves of Beelzebub while God claps," he wrote. "The evidence is fairly irrefutable."

Parkes makes a good point: it's tough to think of what else could have gone wrong thus far, as this spring training has bordered on the ridiculous. Thanks to Rolen's injury, Marco Scutaro is now the starting third baseman. Thanks to A.J. Burnett, many fans have learned far more than they ever needed to about nail salons, their magic potions and the effect said potions have on curve balls. Thanks to Casey Janssen, those fans who never took anatomy now know all about the labrum and the dire effects of tearing it. Thanks to B.J. Ryan, many more people know Tommy John solely for the surgical procedure named after him, rather than his solid career (3.34 ERA and 288 career wins, spread out over 26 seasons). Thanks to Frank Thomas, we now know he starts slow even when he comes to camp early. Thanks to David Eckstein, sports columnists have run out of synonyms for "small", "scrappy", "gritty", and "plucky". It's this kind of stuff that might drive us all to become drunk Jays fans.