It should be an interesting Super Bowl today; a clash between two high-powered offences, as well as two very different game philosophies. The Saints have a balanced attack and an incredibly aggressive defence, while the Colts' defence excels at limiting big plays and their offence is dominant in the passing game, but struggles to run the ball. You can find my full preview piece below, as well as other ones I wrote for Rob Carnell at Salt Water Music and Ryan Gallivan at The Gally Blog. Now, it's time for the prediction.
Everyone has the Colts as big favourites, but I think this is overlooking a few things. For one, as Neil Paine points out, SRS (simple rating system, explained here), which looks at teams' average margins of victory and their opponents' average ratings, is overwhelmingly in favour of the Saints. Yes, the Saints struggled against the Vikings in the NFC Championship game, but the Colts had issues with the New York Jets, a much less well-rounded team. For another thing, the Colts haven't shown much of an ability to run the ball or stop the run consistently. They did both to some degree against the Jets, but part of that was thanks to the Jets' one-dimensional approach on both offence and defence; New York sold out to stop the pass and ran the ball as frequently as possible, allowing the Colts to burn them both ways by running at unexpected times and stacking the box against the Jets' rushing attack. New Orleans has an incredibly balanced team with a variety of options that can hurt you in the run game and the pass game, so it will be more difficult to stop them.
I also love the Saints' uber-aggressive defensive strategy of trying to force turnovers at all costs. Turnovers can often swing a game, and the Saints create a ton of them. Meanwhile, the Colts' defence is solid, but I can't stand its strategy of only trying to limit big plays. It's like the old quote, "A prevent defence only prevents victory."
In general, I think the Colts are a bit overrated. Yes, they've had great regular-season performances throughout this decade, but their one Super Bowl victory came against Rex Grossman, and I'm pretty sure I'm a more capable quarterback than Grossman. Manning and company have built a solid franchise, but not a legendary one, and playoff wins over deeply flawed teams like the Ravens and Jets haven't changed my opinion of them yet. They're good, but I don't think they're as good as their press clippings.
My final reason for picking the Saints has nothing to do with anything on the field, but rather how the Colts laid down in Week 15 rather than going for a perfect season. Sure, they got the pressure off them, but they sneered at history, and I'm hoping that will come back to bite them. As Herm Edwards once said, "YOU PLAY TO WIN THE GAME!" The Colts didn't do that, and that's why I'm hoping the Saints will go marching in today.
Prediction: Saints 35, Colts 31
Showing posts with label New Orleans Saints. Show all posts
Showing posts with label New Orleans Saints. Show all posts
Sunday, February 07, 2010
Previewing the Super Bowl, with Ryan Gallivan and Alex Holt
This year’s Super Bowl is more than just a battle between the New Orleans Saints and Indianapolis Colts; it’s also a clash of styles between the Colts’ pass-heavy offence and the Saints’ balanced attack. New Orleans was sixth in the league in rushing this year, averaging 131.6 yards per regular-season game, and fourth in passing, averaging 272.2 yards per game. The Colts were second in the NFL in passing yards per game, averaging 282.2 yards per game, but dead last in rushing, putting up only 80.9 yards on the ground.
The Colts’ rushing game hasn’t improved by the numbers in the playoffs, as they’re still only averaging 2.9 yards per attempt and 71.5 yards per game. However, those stats are somewhat deceiving. The Colts got nowhere on the ground against the Baltimore Ravens in the divisional round, putting up only 44 yards on 23 carries, but that game was out of hand early and the Colts were often running just to control the clock. Against the notably effective rushing defence of the New York Jets in the conference championship game, a contest that was much closer throughout, the Colts piled up 103 yards on 23 rushing attempts, with featured back Joseph Addai picking up 80 yards on 16 carries. Their rushing defence, which allowed 126.5 yards per game during the regular season (24th in the league), also performed much better against the Jets’ top-ranked ground attack, holding New York to 85 yards on 27 carries. Ryan Gallivan, a Colts’ fan who edits The Gally Blog, said Indianapolis’ recent transformation has overtones of déjà vu.
“This year is eerily reminiscent of 2006-2007 when the Colts beat
the Bears in the Super Bowl,” Gallivan said. “The Colts were merely adequate at
defense that year and slightly above average at running the ball. Come playoff time though, the team transmogrified into a run stopping team that could pound the ball.”
Gallivan thinks Indianapolis is likely to continue this success Sunday. He argues the passing game is performing so well that opposing teams become focused on shutting it down, leaving holes that can be exploited by the run game.
“The Colts’ run game may not win the Super Bowl for them as it did in 2007, but it is going to
continue its playoff trend and not the regular-season trend,” Gallivan said. “The biggest reason is that everyone in the football world is scared of Peyton Manning right now.”
However, that doesn’t mean the Colts have a great rushing offence. Gallivan said both of their primary running backs, Addai and Donald Brown, have significant flaws. He thinks Addai is a better option, though.
“I'm not ready to accept either of these guys right now,” he said. “Though Brown is more explosive, Addai is more sure-handed and as I don't expect the game to be won on the ground, I want Addai getting the touches. Though he lay mostly dormant this year, he showed signs of life against the Patriots and two weeks ago against the Jets. He's not a home-run guy, but if he can get going, he's very good after the first tackle. If we're needing to play ball control, we're going to be looking for him. Plus, Addai is very adept in the pass game both as a blocker and receiver.”
Gallivan figures the Colts will need to run the ball frequently Sunday despite the flaws in their ground game.
“The Colts are always better as a balanced team,” he said. “Sure, this year
they passed a gaudy 62.15 per cent of the time, but it often seemed that it was a necessity. The Saints passed nearly eight per cent less than the Colts did, for example, but the Colts often had to pass as they were trying to come from behind,which they did a record-setting seven times this season. The Colts’ offence requires the play-action pass and the stretch run for it to work most effectively, so if the run/pass ratio is close to 50 per cent, that means their offence is working how they want it to work.”
One of the key subplots leading up to the Super Bowl has been the health of Indianapolis’ star defensive end Dwight Freeney, who’s recovering from a severely torn ligament in his right ankle. Freeney hasn’t practiced all week, but Gallivan thinks he’ll be featured come game time.
“Dwight Freeney is going to play,” he said. “Terrell Owens played in the 2005 Super Bowl coming off a fractured fibula and severely sprained ankle. He healed those injuries in part in much the samemanner as Freeney, with extensive time in a hyperbaric chamber and using the microcurrent system. It's the Super Bowl, so there's no chance he won't get some playing time.”
Even if Freeney isn’t fully healed, Gallivan thinks it will benefit the Colts to have him in the lineup.
“A Dwight Freeney at, say, 60 per cent is still more effective than about 50 per cent of the DEs in the league,” he said. “Freeney and Robert Mathis are the best pass rushing tandem in the NFL. If Freeney is in at close to full strength, it means that the Saints will have to keep a TE or RB in to help Jermon Bushrod block, though that doesn't mean that Mathis will be blockable. With the two of them in with emotions this high, it could potentially negate two passing options on every play that they're in. With Freeney out, Mathis moves over to RDE and the versatile but less-proven Raheem Brock steps in at LDE. Brock is no slouch at DE, but he's not Freeney, so the whole pass rush dynamic changes with Freeney out.”
The Saints have an explosive offence of their own, but Gallivan thinks they do have weaknesses.
“I'm going to take a lot of flack for this, but the Saints aren't exactly a power team,”
he said. “They've been successful because they're generally faster than the opposing defences, which causes various matchup problems. They're not faster than the Colts’ defence, which is
built to be small, rangy and fast. Though they blitz more frequently this year under [defensive coordinator Larry] Coyer, they are a trademark Monte Kiffin Tampa-2 defence. Because they struggled mightily against the run earlier in the year, and the two games where they didn't try, they appeared more
vulnerable than they were.
Gallivan’s expecting a shootout Sunday, with both teams going for it early and often.
“I think this has the potential to be an amazing game,” he said. “Don't expect the punters to come out unless it’s something like fourth and 14 at your own 26-yard line. Sean Payton is a risk-taker and knows that this
year, Peyton Manning is a freak and must be put down. He's aware you can't be happy collecting field goals against the Colts and will go for it frequently and often. Don't be surprised when New Orleans
goes for it on fourth and 6 when they have a 48-yard field goal available. The Colts will not be as aggressive, but whoever is actually calling the shots in Indy will be more aggressive than Dungy
was these last few years.”
Gallivan said he expects the Colts’ strengths are enough to give them a close victory.
“ I think it will be a thrilling game, with the Colts pulling ahead in the last few minutes
and holding on to win 35-31,” he said.
The Saints have strengths of their own, though. Alex Holt, who’s written extensively on the NFL for The Rookies and covers Buffalo sports at And The Shot, thinks New Orleans’ balanced approach will give them an advantage Sunday.
“I certainly think having more than one offensive dimension gives the Saints somewhat of an edge,” he said. “I really is hard to win when you're only really good at one offensive aspect of the game. The Saints definitely have a much better chance of winning the game if their defence can force the Colts to rely on their running game. The catch here is that Peyton Manning's such a talented QB that shutting down the Colts' passing game is easier said than done.”
Holt said one of the Colts’ weaknesses comes from Freeney’s injury. If he sits out, they’ll miss his experience and talent, but Holt figures if he plays while hurt, the Saints may be able to take advantage of his lessened explosiveness.
“As long as the Colts actually plan on rushing Dwight Freeney back at less than 100 per cent, that's definitely going to be a matchup the Saints can take advantage of,” he said.
Holt isn’t underrating the Indianapolis defence, as he thinks their talent might pose a few issues for the Saints. It depends on New Orleans’ approach, though.
“ I think they need to keep an eye on Kelvin Hayden at CB and Antoine Bethea at FS,” Holt said. “Drew Brees is arguably the best QB in the NFL in terms of being able to successfully throw deep on a consistent basis so if the Colts' secondary has a good night, that takes away a major aspect of Brees' game and forces them to rely more on the running game, which the Colts certainly wouldn't have as hard a time stopping.”
Both teams showcase very different approaches on defence. The Colts have focused on limiting big plays by the opposing offence all year and finished 18th in the league with 339.2 total yards allowed per game, while the Saints allowed more yards (357.8) but focused on jumping routes to make interceptions and stripping the ball from opposing players instead of just bringing them down. They finished third in the league with 26 interceptions, while the Colts were 15--th with 16. Holt said that aggressive approach has worked well for the Saints in the past, but they may need to tone it down Sunday.
“Most of the time, I think these gambles are worthwhile,” he said. “It worked great with Adrian Peterson and Brett Favre in the NFC Championship. In fact, if the Jets had somehow beaten the Colts two weeks ago, I think the Saints could have had a field day trying to force fumbles and pick-sixes out of Mark Sanchez (after all, even the Bills were able to do that once this season). Unfortunately for the Saints, they're up against Peyton Manning and he's far smarter than Sanchez or Favre so they'll definitely get burned if they try the same approach they used in the championship game. The key to beating the Colts on Sunday is to force them to rely on the running game.”
Holt said he’s hoping the Saints will pull off the upset, but he expects the Colts to prevail in a high-scoring nailbiter.
“I'm rooting for the Saints to win but I know how likely a Colts win is,” he said. “I am going to go so far as to say that this game will be won with a single digit lead and probably in the 30s. It's possible that it will be in the 20s if both defences play out of their minds, or in the 40's if this becomes Cardinals-Packers redux, but 38-31 just sounds right to me. Either way, this should be the anti-Bucs-Raiders of Super Bowls.”
The Colts’ rushing game hasn’t improved by the numbers in the playoffs, as they’re still only averaging 2.9 yards per attempt and 71.5 yards per game. However, those stats are somewhat deceiving. The Colts got nowhere on the ground against the Baltimore Ravens in the divisional round, putting up only 44 yards on 23 carries, but that game was out of hand early and the Colts were often running just to control the clock. Against the notably effective rushing defence of the New York Jets in the conference championship game, a contest that was much closer throughout, the Colts piled up 103 yards on 23 rushing attempts, with featured back Joseph Addai picking up 80 yards on 16 carries. Their rushing defence, which allowed 126.5 yards per game during the regular season (24th in the league), also performed much better against the Jets’ top-ranked ground attack, holding New York to 85 yards on 27 carries. Ryan Gallivan, a Colts’ fan who edits The Gally Blog, said Indianapolis’ recent transformation has overtones of déjà vu.
“This year is eerily reminiscent of 2006-2007 when the Colts beat
the Bears in the Super Bowl,” Gallivan said. “The Colts were merely adequate at
defense that year and slightly above average at running the ball. Come playoff time though, the team transmogrified into a run stopping team that could pound the ball.”
Gallivan thinks Indianapolis is likely to continue this success Sunday. He argues the passing game is performing so well that opposing teams become focused on shutting it down, leaving holes that can be exploited by the run game.
“The Colts’ run game may not win the Super Bowl for them as it did in 2007, but it is going to
continue its playoff trend and not the regular-season trend,” Gallivan said. “The biggest reason is that everyone in the football world is scared of Peyton Manning right now.”
However, that doesn’t mean the Colts have a great rushing offence. Gallivan said both of their primary running backs, Addai and Donald Brown, have significant flaws. He thinks Addai is a better option, though.
“I'm not ready to accept either of these guys right now,” he said. “Though Brown is more explosive, Addai is more sure-handed and as I don't expect the game to be won on the ground, I want Addai getting the touches. Though he lay mostly dormant this year, he showed signs of life against the Patriots and two weeks ago against the Jets. He's not a home-run guy, but if he can get going, he's very good after the first tackle. If we're needing to play ball control, we're going to be looking for him. Plus, Addai is very adept in the pass game both as a blocker and receiver.”
Gallivan figures the Colts will need to run the ball frequently Sunday despite the flaws in their ground game.
“The Colts are always better as a balanced team,” he said. “Sure, this year
they passed a gaudy 62.15 per cent of the time, but it often seemed that it was a necessity. The Saints passed nearly eight per cent less than the Colts did, for example, but the Colts often had to pass as they were trying to come from behind,which they did a record-setting seven times this season. The Colts’ offence requires the play-action pass and the stretch run for it to work most effectively, so if the run/pass ratio is close to 50 per cent, that means their offence is working how they want it to work.”
One of the key subplots leading up to the Super Bowl has been the health of Indianapolis’ star defensive end Dwight Freeney, who’s recovering from a severely torn ligament in his right ankle. Freeney hasn’t practiced all week, but Gallivan thinks he’ll be featured come game time.
“Dwight Freeney is going to play,” he said. “Terrell Owens played in the 2005 Super Bowl coming off a fractured fibula and severely sprained ankle. He healed those injuries in part in much the samemanner as Freeney, with extensive time in a hyperbaric chamber and using the microcurrent system. It's the Super Bowl, so there's no chance he won't get some playing time.”
Even if Freeney isn’t fully healed, Gallivan thinks it will benefit the Colts to have him in the lineup.
“A Dwight Freeney at, say, 60 per cent is still more effective than about 50 per cent of the DEs in the league,” he said. “Freeney and Robert Mathis are the best pass rushing tandem in the NFL. If Freeney is in at close to full strength, it means that the Saints will have to keep a TE or RB in to help Jermon Bushrod block, though that doesn't mean that Mathis will be blockable. With the two of them in with emotions this high, it could potentially negate two passing options on every play that they're in. With Freeney out, Mathis moves over to RDE and the versatile but less-proven Raheem Brock steps in at LDE. Brock is no slouch at DE, but he's not Freeney, so the whole pass rush dynamic changes with Freeney out.”
The Saints have an explosive offence of their own, but Gallivan thinks they do have weaknesses.
“I'm going to take a lot of flack for this, but the Saints aren't exactly a power team,”
he said. “They've been successful because they're generally faster than the opposing defences, which causes various matchup problems. They're not faster than the Colts’ defence, which is
built to be small, rangy and fast. Though they blitz more frequently this year under [defensive coordinator Larry] Coyer, they are a trademark Monte Kiffin Tampa-2 defence. Because they struggled mightily against the run earlier in the year, and the two games where they didn't try, they appeared more
vulnerable than they were.
Gallivan’s expecting a shootout Sunday, with both teams going for it early and often.
“I think this has the potential to be an amazing game,” he said. “Don't expect the punters to come out unless it’s something like fourth and 14 at your own 26-yard line. Sean Payton is a risk-taker and knows that this
year, Peyton Manning is a freak and must be put down. He's aware you can't be happy collecting field goals against the Colts and will go for it frequently and often. Don't be surprised when New Orleans
goes for it on fourth and 6 when they have a 48-yard field goal available. The Colts will not be as aggressive, but whoever is actually calling the shots in Indy will be more aggressive than Dungy
was these last few years.”
Gallivan said he expects the Colts’ strengths are enough to give them a close victory.
“ I think it will be a thrilling game, with the Colts pulling ahead in the last few minutes
and holding on to win 35-31,” he said.
The Saints have strengths of their own, though. Alex Holt, who’s written extensively on the NFL for The Rookies and covers Buffalo sports at And The Shot, thinks New Orleans’ balanced approach will give them an advantage Sunday.
“I certainly think having more than one offensive dimension gives the Saints somewhat of an edge,” he said. “I really is hard to win when you're only really good at one offensive aspect of the game. The Saints definitely have a much better chance of winning the game if their defence can force the Colts to rely on their running game. The catch here is that Peyton Manning's such a talented QB that shutting down the Colts' passing game is easier said than done.”
Holt said one of the Colts’ weaknesses comes from Freeney’s injury. If he sits out, they’ll miss his experience and talent, but Holt figures if he plays while hurt, the Saints may be able to take advantage of his lessened explosiveness.
“As long as the Colts actually plan on rushing Dwight Freeney back at less than 100 per cent, that's definitely going to be a matchup the Saints can take advantage of,” he said.
Holt isn’t underrating the Indianapolis defence, as he thinks their talent might pose a few issues for the Saints. It depends on New Orleans’ approach, though.
“ I think they need to keep an eye on Kelvin Hayden at CB and Antoine Bethea at FS,” Holt said. “Drew Brees is arguably the best QB in the NFL in terms of being able to successfully throw deep on a consistent basis so if the Colts' secondary has a good night, that takes away a major aspect of Brees' game and forces them to rely more on the running game, which the Colts certainly wouldn't have as hard a time stopping.”
Both teams showcase very different approaches on defence. The Colts have focused on limiting big plays by the opposing offence all year and finished 18th in the league with 339.2 total yards allowed per game, while the Saints allowed more yards (357.8) but focused on jumping routes to make interceptions and stripping the ball from opposing players instead of just bringing them down. They finished third in the league with 26 interceptions, while the Colts were 15--th with 16. Holt said that aggressive approach has worked well for the Saints in the past, but they may need to tone it down Sunday.
“Most of the time, I think these gambles are worthwhile,” he said. “It worked great with Adrian Peterson and Brett Favre in the NFC Championship. In fact, if the Jets had somehow beaten the Colts two weeks ago, I think the Saints could have had a field day trying to force fumbles and pick-sixes out of Mark Sanchez (after all, even the Bills were able to do that once this season). Unfortunately for the Saints, they're up against Peyton Manning and he's far smarter than Sanchez or Favre so they'll definitely get burned if they try the same approach they used in the championship game. The key to beating the Colts on Sunday is to force them to rely on the running game.”
Holt said he’s hoping the Saints will pull off the upset, but he expects the Colts to prevail in a high-scoring nailbiter.
“I'm rooting for the Saints to win but I know how likely a Colts win is,” he said. “I am going to go so far as to say that this game will be won with a single digit lead and probably in the 30s. It's possible that it will be in the 20s if both defences play out of their minds, or in the 40's if this becomes Cardinals-Packers redux, but 38-31 just sounds right to me. Either way, this should be the anti-Bucs-Raiders of Super Bowls.”
Sunday, January 24, 2010
NFC Championship Live Blog
Who will face the Colts in this year's Super Bowl? Join me in the live blog below to find out!
Pigskin Predictions: Conference Championship Games
I'll be live-blogging today's games shortly, but first I thought I'd put up some predictions. Both these games could go either way, like anything in the playoffs, so these are just idle thoughts, not guarantees. If you want something with a better chance of success, check out Peter Pattakos' picks over at Cleveland Frowns; he's 8-0 so far these playoffs! With that out the way, let's get to the games.
AFC: New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts:
The Colts were a dominant team during the regular season. They went 14-2, and weren't particularly trying in the games they lost (one against the Jets). Meanwhile, Jets' head coach Rex Ryan thought they were eliminated at one point, and they only snuck into the playoffs on the last day. The Colts also beat their curse of resting starters with last weekend's win over the Ravens, so there's lots of logical reasons to pick them. However, I'm not going to. For one thing, small athletic teams like the Colts often have trouble dealing with smashmout teams like the Jets. Peyton Manning is obviously a better quarterback than Mark Sanchez, but can he handle Rex Ryan's innovative blitzes and shutdown corner supreme Darrelle Revis? The Colts can't run the ball, and I'm not sure how well they'll do throwing it all day against the Jets' great pass defence. They also have trouble stopping the run, and the Jets have a tremendous ground game, with a terrific offensive line opening holes for Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene. History's also on the Jets' side; this game's highly reminiscent of the famous Super Bowl III, where Joe Namath led the underdog Jets to victory over the Baltimore Colts. It also has overtones of the Pittsburgh Steelers' run from wild-card berth to Super Bowl in 2005-06; like this team, that one had a young quarterback and won with a punishing ground game and a strong defence. The Jets have momentum on their side, and I think they'll take the Colts' juggernaut down today.
Pick: Jets
NFC: Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints
The Vikings have been very impressive this year. They've got a great running game with Adrian Peterson, and Brett Favre has put up possibly the best season of his career. They also have arguably the best defensive line in the NFL. Despite all that, I'm going with the Saints. I love their balanced attack and their ability to constantly throw different looks at you. They have so many talented offensive players; Marques Colston, Robert Meachem, Reggie Bush, Pierre Thomas and Mike Bell, just to name a few. Their ball-hawking secondary might also cause a few problems for Favre, who never met a difficult throw he didn't like. Plus, with the combination of Prince's appalling theme song and "Pants On The Ground" guy on the sidelines, there are even more reasons to root against the Vikings than normal. I'm taking the Saints in this one.
Pick: Saints
Join me here for the AFC live blog at 3 p.m. Eastern and the NFC live blog at 6:40 p.m. Eastern!
AFC: New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts:
The Colts were a dominant team during the regular season. They went 14-2, and weren't particularly trying in the games they lost (one against the Jets). Meanwhile, Jets' head coach Rex Ryan thought they were eliminated at one point, and they only snuck into the playoffs on the last day. The Colts also beat their curse of resting starters with last weekend's win over the Ravens, so there's lots of logical reasons to pick them. However, I'm not going to. For one thing, small athletic teams like the Colts often have trouble dealing with smashmout teams like the Jets. Peyton Manning is obviously a better quarterback than Mark Sanchez, but can he handle Rex Ryan's innovative blitzes and shutdown corner supreme Darrelle Revis? The Colts can't run the ball, and I'm not sure how well they'll do throwing it all day against the Jets' great pass defence. They also have trouble stopping the run, and the Jets have a tremendous ground game, with a terrific offensive line opening holes for Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene. History's also on the Jets' side; this game's highly reminiscent of the famous Super Bowl III, where Joe Namath led the underdog Jets to victory over the Baltimore Colts. It also has overtones of the Pittsburgh Steelers' run from wild-card berth to Super Bowl in 2005-06; like this team, that one had a young quarterback and won with a punishing ground game and a strong defence. The Jets have momentum on their side, and I think they'll take the Colts' juggernaut down today.
Pick: Jets
NFC: Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints
The Vikings have been very impressive this year. They've got a great running game with Adrian Peterson, and Brett Favre has put up possibly the best season of his career. They also have arguably the best defensive line in the NFL. Despite all that, I'm going with the Saints. I love their balanced attack and their ability to constantly throw different looks at you. They have so many talented offensive players; Marques Colston, Robert Meachem, Reggie Bush, Pierre Thomas and Mike Bell, just to name a few. Their ball-hawking secondary might also cause a few problems for Favre, who never met a difficult throw he didn't like. Plus, with the combination of Prince's appalling theme song and "Pants On The Ground" guy on the sidelines, there are even more reasons to root against the Vikings than normal. I'm taking the Saints in this one.
Pick: Saints
Join me here for the AFC live blog at 3 p.m. Eastern and the NFC live blog at 6:40 p.m. Eastern!
On The Ground: Breaking down the Saints with Mark Hooper
As part of this preview of today's NFC championship game, I spoke to my Fanball colleague Mark Hooper of Who Dat Blog to get his thoughts on the Saints. My questions and his responses are below.
Andrew Bucholtz: The Saints didn't finish the regular season particularly convincingly, but they turned in a very impressive win over the Cardinals last weekend. Were you expecting more rust from them, or did you see that kind of dominant performance coming?
Mark Hooper: To be honest, I didn't see that coming. I expected more of a track meet, and I thought that first play from scrimmage set the tone. I really was thinking the Saints would do their normal slow start then finish strong, but they were cranking on all cylinders from play one. Drew Brees had arguably the best game of his season balancing the running and passing game, keeping the Cardinals on their heels all day. The Saints could do anything they wanted at any time.
A.B.: Both the Saints and the Vikings have gotten great performances from their quarterbacks this season. Who do you think will play better on Sunday, Drew Brees or Brett Favre?
M.H.: Brees. Favre had a remarkable game against the Cowboys, tossing long pinpoint passes to talented WRs and escaping the pressure. I think that game was also his finest performance of the year, and that's saying a lot. I just don't see him being able to duplicate that against the Saints defense. The Saints have had issues in their secondary this season, but their opportunistic defense and better safeties will make Favre work harder for his scores. Brees just has too much talent and at home will put together a solid game.
A.B.: On a similar note, who would you rather have, Adrian Peterson or the Saints' deep backfield?
M.H.: I see Peterson having a bigger impact that he did against the Cowboys, and I think he may be a big factor in keeping drives alive and third-down situations manageable. Reggie Bush could be a game-changer, but that's a tossup right now.
A.B.: Are there any matchups against the Vikings that bode well for the Saints? Are there any that are concerning?
M.H.: Vikes' wideouts vs. Saints' corners. That's the biggest concern, and the Saints will need to get pressure from their front-four to alleviate the pressure on their corners. If they have to resort top blitzes to slow down Favre, it could be a long day for Saints fans.
A.B.: What do you think the final score will be? Why?
M.H.: 34-31 Saints. I don't think you can overlook the Saints confidence coming off a blow-out win vs. the Cardinals (and another aging yet productive QB), and more importantly, the home-field advantage.
Thanks to Mark for taking the time to talk to me! Check out his work here.
Andrew Bucholtz: The Saints didn't finish the regular season particularly convincingly, but they turned in a very impressive win over the Cardinals last weekend. Were you expecting more rust from them, or did you see that kind of dominant performance coming?
Mark Hooper: To be honest, I didn't see that coming. I expected more of a track meet, and I thought that first play from scrimmage set the tone. I really was thinking the Saints would do their normal slow start then finish strong, but they were cranking on all cylinders from play one. Drew Brees had arguably the best game of his season balancing the running and passing game, keeping the Cardinals on their heels all day. The Saints could do anything they wanted at any time.
A.B.: Both the Saints and the Vikings have gotten great performances from their quarterbacks this season. Who do you think will play better on Sunday, Drew Brees or Brett Favre?
M.H.: Brees. Favre had a remarkable game against the Cowboys, tossing long pinpoint passes to talented WRs and escaping the pressure. I think that game was also his finest performance of the year, and that's saying a lot. I just don't see him being able to duplicate that against the Saints defense. The Saints have had issues in their secondary this season, but their opportunistic defense and better safeties will make Favre work harder for his scores. Brees just has too much talent and at home will put together a solid game.
A.B.: On a similar note, who would you rather have, Adrian Peterson or the Saints' deep backfield?
M.H.: I see Peterson having a bigger impact that he did against the Cowboys, and I think he may be a big factor in keeping drives alive and third-down situations manageable. Reggie Bush could be a game-changer, but that's a tossup right now.
A.B.: Are there any matchups against the Vikings that bode well for the Saints? Are there any that are concerning?
M.H.: Vikes' wideouts vs. Saints' corners. That's the biggest concern, and the Saints will need to get pressure from their front-four to alleviate the pressure on their corners. If they have to resort top blitzes to slow down Favre, it could be a long day for Saints fans.
A.B.: What do you think the final score will be? Why?
M.H.: 34-31 Saints. I don't think you can overlook the Saints confidence coming off a blow-out win vs. the Cardinals (and another aging yet productive QB), and more importantly, the home-field advantage.
Thanks to Mark for taking the time to talk to me! Check out his work here.
Conference Championship Madness
Today will feature the NFL's conference championship games, and I'll have plenty of coverage of them here. For starters, I wrote a pair of pieces for The Good Point talking to notable football bloggers about some elements of this weekend's matchups. You can check out the preview of the AFC contest between the Indianapolis Colts and the New York Jets (3:00 p.m. Eastern, CBS) here and the preview of the NFC clash between the New Orleans Saints and Minnesota Vikings (6:40 p.m. Eastern, FOX) here. To go along with those pieces, I'll be posting the complete interviews I conducted with each of the bloggers here. The AFC ones will be up shortly, with the NFC ones to follow in the morning. I'll also have my breakdown of each game with predictions up in the morning. Finally, I'll be live-blogging both games right here. Feel free to stop on by and join in the fun!
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