Apologies for the lateness of this piece, the counterpoint to Mike’s argument in favour of the Phillies. I got caught up in Journal work this week, as most of our sports contributors contracted severe cases of midtermitis, leaving me to carry even more of the load then normal (I wrote a personal-record five game stories, one column, one profile and one brief for Friday’s issue). Thus, there wasn’t a lot of time to do much of anything on the blogging front. In any case, though, with the Rays and Phillies splitting the first two games of the World Series, it’s still very much up for grabs, so I figured it would still be worth writing this piece: just consider it a preview of the best-of-five series that remains.
In my far-from-expert opinion, the Rays are going to take this series. It’s going to be close, as the Phillies are a very talented ball club, but the Rays win this matchup on depth. That depth is a triple-barreled advantage; it’s present in pitching, offence and defence, and it’s why Philadelphia’s championship drought will continue for at least another year.
First, consider the pitching. As Game 1 demonstrated, there isn’t a great deal of difference between the two staff aces, Cole Hamels of the Phillies and Scott Kazmir of the Rays (Hamels has an edge, but it isn’t a ridiculous one). The matchups start to favour Tampa Bay after this, though. Philly’s only other starting pitchers with an ERA+ above 100 (better than average) are Jamie Moyer (3.71 ERA, 120 ERA+) and Joe Blanton (4.20, 106). Brett Myers is slightly below league average (4.55 ERA, 98 ERA+). Moyer is 45 and threw just under 200 innings in the regular-season: he’s still got talent, but I’m not sure if I’d want him as a key starter at this point in his career. Blanton only appeared in 13 games this season and threw 70 innings: he appears to have some talent, but I wouldn’t pin my hopes on him either.
By contrast, Tampa has five solid starters. Kazmir, James Shields and Matt Garza are all hovering around 120 in ERA+, while Andy Sonnanstine and Edwin Jackson are at 100 and 99 respectively. These guys are all very impressive. Philadelphia has a bit of an edge in bullpen depth, but Tampa has some strong options too in Grant Balfour, Dan Wheeler, J.P. Howell and David Price. If Tampa’s starters can eat enough innings, bullpen depth may not be an issue.
On offence, it’s a similar story. Looking through the Game 1 starters, there isn’t a great deal of difference between the batting lineups using regular-season statistical comparisons (a larger sample size than the postseason). Tampa has a slight edge in batting average (.270 to .263) and on-base percentage (.346 to .344), but Philly leads in slugging percentage (.455 to .432) and OPS (.799 to .778). Interestingly enough, though, Tampa has the edge in OPS+ (110 to 106), which seems odd when you look at the raw OPS numbers, but is probably due to the league and park factors OPS+ takes into consideration.
The offensive edge comes from the depth, though. Philadelphia has a couple of black holes in the batting order in Carlos Ruiz (.219/.320/.300, 63 OPS+) and Pedro Feliz (.249/.302/.402, 81). Those two players are worse offensively than anyone in Tampa’s starting lineup. Chris Coste, who’s DHing in the games in Tampa, isn’t much better (.263/.325/.423, 93): his OPS+ only beats Tampa shortstop Jason Bartlett (who, as the brilliant Joe Posnanski pointed out, was a bizarre choice for Tampa’s MVP: probably picked for his defence and his .286 batting average, but he doesn’t get on base too frequently and he doesn’t have a great deal of power) and outfielder Carl Crawford, whose speed increases his value. The Rays also have terrific depth off the bench, with the likes of Rocco Baldelli, Cliff Floyd and Gabe Gross available. It’s the depth throughout the lineup that makes the Rays an appealing pick. I say they take it in six.
Showing posts with label Tampa Bay Rays. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Tampa Bay Rays. Show all posts
Saturday, October 25, 2008
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
World Series Point/Counterpoint: Mike Woods on the Phillies
Last year, former Journal sports editor (and current features editor) Mike Woods and I had a great tradition of writing point/counterpoint pieces around the major professional sporting events and issues of the year. He beat me in the World Series predictions (though to be fair, I was more making a case that the Rockies could win rather than they would), but I got my revenge in the Super Bowl. Anyway, we weren't able to fit a point/counterpoint on this year's series in the paper, but Mike and I figured we'd each write one for this site to keep the tradition alive. Here's his piece on why the Phillies will win. My case for the Rays will come later tonight.
- Andrew
Phanatical about the Phillies (Andrew's title)
By Mike Woods
No last-place team in any professional sport has won its league’s championship the following year. Admittedly, the Tampa Bay Rays have shockingly passed one test after another this season. It looked like their best days were behind them when they lost seven games in a row before the All-Star break, and many had their downfall marked for September.
Despite their miraculous run, the Rays remain young and fragile—and bravado can only take you so far. It looked like the Boston Red Sox were going to exploit that lesson after that stunning 8-run comeback in game five of the ALCS, but Boston doesn’t have the hitting depth they used to, they were tired from winning last year, and Josh Beckett had an off-series. As a result, Tampa still hasn’t been taught a lesson about the big time. The Rays are a bit late getting to school, through no fault of their own, but the Phillies should make for some fine teachers.
The Rays beat the Red Sox on the strength of their big bats. While the Phillies’ Jimmy Rollins, Ryan Howard and Chase Utley get the bulk of opponents’ attention—and rightfully so—the Phillies cleaned the field with the Dodgers with 2 RBI from Howard and Rollins hitting .143. It’s the second-tier hitters like Pat Burrell and Shane Victorino that propelled the Phillies to where they are. The Phillies had seven players with at least 58 RBI this season. B.J. Upton and Evan Longoria can’t hit home runs every at-bat. The Phillies’ bench has been strong this postseason with guys like Greg Dobbs, Geoff Jenkins and Matt Stairs (O Canada!) contributing offensively. Ryan Howard seemed to remember how to hit at the close of the NLCS, which Scott Kazmir probably had nightmares about last night. And now the Phillies get a DH, too!
Pitching depth also favours the Phillies. The Rays might have a slight edge in the rotation, but the Phillies never lost a game this year with a lead through eight innings, and Brad Lidge hasn’t blown a save in 46 tries. As much as David Price has been tough as nails, he’s still a rookie. The Phillies also have a unique influx of lefties like J.C. Romero and Scott Eyre to take on Carl Crawford and the other Rays’ righties. Let’s not forget, Ryan Madson might be the best set-up man in baseball this year.
Coming off a seven-game series surely won’t help the Rays sort out their rotation. Fatigue might be a factor later on in the series for Tampa’s starting pitchers. Philadelphia’s had plenty of time to line up who they want to start which game. Tonight they’ll start Cole Hamels, who’s been baseball’s best pitcher these playoffs.
People seem to be making a big deal of the Phillies not having played on turf all year, the surface at Tropicana Field. It may give the Phillies some trouble in the first couple of innings tonight, but consider the Rays were 38-35 on grass this year. Meanwhile, the Phillies had the NL’s best road record this season. Oh, and it’s COLD in Philly. The last time the Rays played in the cold, they gave up a seven-run lead.
None of Philadelphia’s four teams has won a championship since Dr. J and the 1983 Sixers did it. This series should be incredibly evenly-matched—even though it’s a TV ratings nightmare for baseball—and entertaining. But the Phillies have an edge in the two areas that will decide the series in my mind: the bullpen and hitting depth. The Rays are a fast, aggressive and confident team. If the Phills’ defense keeps them in check on the basepaths and these other areas play out as they should, Philadelphia’s professional sporting agony can finally end. Maybe their fans can finally stop booing—that’s something we could all cheer for.
- Andrew
Phanatical about the Phillies (Andrew's title)
By Mike Woods
No last-place team in any professional sport has won its league’s championship the following year. Admittedly, the Tampa Bay Rays have shockingly passed one test after another this season. It looked like their best days were behind them when they lost seven games in a row before the All-Star break, and many had their downfall marked for September.
Despite their miraculous run, the Rays remain young and fragile—and bravado can only take you so far. It looked like the Boston Red Sox were going to exploit that lesson after that stunning 8-run comeback in game five of the ALCS, but Boston doesn’t have the hitting depth they used to, they were tired from winning last year, and Josh Beckett had an off-series. As a result, Tampa still hasn’t been taught a lesson about the big time. The Rays are a bit late getting to school, through no fault of their own, but the Phillies should make for some fine teachers.
The Rays beat the Red Sox on the strength of their big bats. While the Phillies’ Jimmy Rollins, Ryan Howard and Chase Utley get the bulk of opponents’ attention—and rightfully so—the Phillies cleaned the field with the Dodgers with 2 RBI from Howard and Rollins hitting .143. It’s the second-tier hitters like Pat Burrell and Shane Victorino that propelled the Phillies to where they are. The Phillies had seven players with at least 58 RBI this season. B.J. Upton and Evan Longoria can’t hit home runs every at-bat. The Phillies’ bench has been strong this postseason with guys like Greg Dobbs, Geoff Jenkins and Matt Stairs (O Canada!) contributing offensively. Ryan Howard seemed to remember how to hit at the close of the NLCS, which Scott Kazmir probably had nightmares about last night. And now the Phillies get a DH, too!
Pitching depth also favours the Phillies. The Rays might have a slight edge in the rotation, but the Phillies never lost a game this year with a lead through eight innings, and Brad Lidge hasn’t blown a save in 46 tries. As much as David Price has been tough as nails, he’s still a rookie. The Phillies also have a unique influx of lefties like J.C. Romero and Scott Eyre to take on Carl Crawford and the other Rays’ righties. Let’s not forget, Ryan Madson might be the best set-up man in baseball this year.
Coming off a seven-game series surely won’t help the Rays sort out their rotation. Fatigue might be a factor later on in the series for Tampa’s starting pitchers. Philadelphia’s had plenty of time to line up who they want to start which game. Tonight they’ll start Cole Hamels, who’s been baseball’s best pitcher these playoffs.
People seem to be making a big deal of the Phillies not having played on turf all year, the surface at Tropicana Field. It may give the Phillies some trouble in the first couple of innings tonight, but consider the Rays were 38-35 on grass this year. Meanwhile, the Phillies had the NL’s best road record this season. Oh, and it’s COLD in Philly. The last time the Rays played in the cold, they gave up a seven-run lead.
None of Philadelphia’s four teams has won a championship since Dr. J and the 1983 Sixers did it. This series should be incredibly evenly-matched—even though it’s a TV ratings nightmare for baseball—and entertaining. But the Phillies have an edge in the two areas that will decide the series in my mind: the bullpen and hitting depth. The Rays are a fast, aggressive and confident team. If the Phills’ defense keeps them in check on the basepaths and these other areas play out as they should, Philadelphia’s professional sporting agony can finally end. Maybe their fans can finally stop booing—that’s something we could all cheer for.
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