Jagr bomb: a Hull of a contract

Photo: Jaromir Jagr, with mullet [Photo from James Mirtle's blog].

Perhaps the NHL can only tolerate one mullet at a time these days. In seriousness, Jaromir Jagr's decision[Eric Duhatschek,The Globe and Mail]to sign with Avangard Omsk of the Continental Hockey League (KHL, to use the Russian acroynm) is only partially surprising, but it should serve as a wake-up call to the NHL that they aren't the only league in town any more. We've heard this song somewhere before: a new league pops into existence, featuring plenty of wealthy businessmen with money to burn on their clubs, and they suddenly make a large contract offer to an aging NHL star to give their league instant respectability. That Bobby Hull contract was the key factor that launched the WHA off the ground: with him on board, the league was taken seriously and became a viable alternative for NHL players looking for a bigger payday.

Interestingly though, few media sources are making the suggestion that this could actually spell a serious challenge to the NHL, and there certainly haven't been too many comparisons to the Hull contract. Much of the coverage I've read has Jagr painted as someone looking to play out the remnants of his career closer to home in a backwater league, which doesn't seem to me to be the whole story of what's going on.* Especially considering the Russian oligarch involved
and his past spending habits on players, I wouldn't be too surprised if Jagr is merely the first big name to join the KHL.

*Aside: Would people care more if Jagr was a Canadian guy? I bet there would be lots of outrage, waving of the flag, segments on Coach's Corner and all the rest, but because he's a European, it's passed off as just a typically eccentric move. Yes, Omsk is closer to home for Jagr, but it's still quite a ways from the Czech Republic. In my mind, this is about more than just playing out his career at home.

Let's examine the stats of Jagr and Hull here using Hockey-Reference's numbers (note: Hull did make a brief NHL comeback at age 41 with the Winnipeg Jets and Hartford Whalers after they jumped into that league, but only played 27 games in that stint. His stats from that comeback are not included in the numbers below.)

Age when they jumped leagues:
Bobby Hull: 33
Jaromir Jagr: 35

Points in last NHL season before leaving:
Hull: 93 (50 goals, 43 assists) in 78 games
Jagr: 71 (25 goals, 46 assists) in 82 games

Points over last three NHL seasons before leaving:
Hull: 256 (132 goals, 124 assists) in 217 games (1.18 points per game)
Jagr: 290 (109 goals, 181 assists) in 246 games (1.18 points per game)


NHL career regular-season points when they left:
Hull: 1153 (604 goals, 549 assists) in 1036 games
Jagr: 1599 (646 goals, 953 assists) in 1273 games

Regular-season points per game career average when they left
Hull: 1.11
Jagr: 1.26

Just off that quick comparison, it looks like their stats are in the same realm. Hull was slightly younger than Jagr when he left and had a better final NHL season, but Jagr's had the better career and his recent numbers are still pretty good. I found the three-season comparison particularly interesting: yes, it's somewhat arbitrary, but I wanted to get an idea of how they'd contributed over a slightly longer period of time than just one year, as everyone has down years (and Jagr's last year was definitely a down year). The stats are very similar (except Hull's include more goals), and the points-per-game figures are identical to two decimal places.

In many ways, that's the real question with this move. If Jagr plays in Russia like he did last year (a respectable 71 points in 82 games, 35th in the NHL on a pure points basis), then the overarching portrait that has been painted of a guy who could still play in the NHL but wouldn't have been in the real upper echelon of superstars would be correct. If, however, he returns to his eye-popping 2005-06 numbers (54 goals, 69 assists, 123 points, 1.50 points per game and the Lester B. Pearson Award as the players' MVP selection) or even his 2006-07 numbers (30 goals, 66 assists, 96 points, 1.17 points per game), then the NHL really has lost a talent similar to the calibre of Bobby Hull when he left the league.

In either case, this move may not compare to landing Evgeni Malkin, but it still means a lot. Regardless of what Jagr does, the fact remains that a Russian team has snatched a player who not only still could have played in the NHL, but would have received substantial cash to do so. They've also likely outbid the NHL. Duhatschek relates that Edmonton offered Jagr more money outright ($8 million U.S., one year), but Jagr's $7 million contract in Russia is actually the equivalent of a $10 million NHL contract when you factor in that the team pays the income tax.

The tax advantage is one huge trump card for the KHL. The location in Russia is another. With the global nature of the NHL these days, there are plenty of players who call Sweden, Finland, Russia, or other European countries home, and you can bet it's easier to pop in for a visit when you're on the same continent. You probably won't see too many North Americans going over at the moment, but that may change if the money and the calibre of the competition go up enough. The league also has ambitions to expand to Finland, the Ukraine and Sweden, which you can bet would entice even more players.

The NHL may be playing the CHL down as a fringe league at the moment, but that's what they consistently did with the WHA, and look at the players that it wound up pulling in. It's going to be worth watching what continues to happen with the CHL. As Duhatschek writes, "Jagr's contract could, in some ways, be compared to the $1-million that the Winnipeg Jets of the World Hockey Association gave Bobby Hull in 1972. He adds a box-office attraction to a league that represents little immediate threat to the NHL but, like the WHA, will require monitoring in the months and years to come."

Related:
- James Mirtle has a quality tribute to Jagr, as well as an excellent primer on the KHL.
- Neate weighs in on the impact of Jagr's career [Out of Left Field].
- Greg Wyshynski's thoughts on the matter [Puck Daddy].
- Sean Zandberg on the downside of Jagr (and yes, there certainly was one, but he's seemingly been able to play like he cares during his New York stint, so I expect that to continue) [Waiting For Stanley].
- Mike Halford thinks Jagr will be back [Orland Kurtenblog].
- Mike Woods, the biggest Jaromir Jagr fan around (the man has a personalized Ottawa Senators jersey with Jagr's name and number, for crying out loud), will likely have a post on the matter whenever he finishes recuperating from hearing the news [The view from the Woods].

Mighty Ducks IV: The Return of the Scott

Scott Niedermayer's recent return should elevate the Anaheim Ducks back to their former levels of might. Even without him, they're still a solid team that has put up 32 points thus far, good enough for seventh place in a jam-packed Western Conference where they're only two points out of second. With him, they have most of the pieces that led them to last year's Stanley Cup championship. It's uncertain whether Teemu Selanne will follow Niedermayer's example and return for the remainder of the season, but the Ducks' younger forwards have done a nice job of filling the void, with Getzlaf, Perry, and Kunitz all recording over 10 goals so far.
Anaheim's had its problems so far, though. One of the most prominent is the absence of scoring depth, as no one except the three previously mentioned forwards has more than four goals and the Ducks have only averaged an anemic 2.35 goals per game, 25th-best in the league. They also haven't been amazing defensively, allowing a 12th-best 2.70 goals per game. Special teams have also been a problem, as their power play is 24th-best and their penalty kill is 25th-best. Despite all these discouraging statistics, they've still found a way to win games, particularly at home where they're 9-4-3. Many have counted them out already, but they still retain most of the core that lifted the Cup last year: now that Niedermayer has returned, the most significant departures are Dustin Penner (who is doing little to justify his gargantuan pay in Edmonton) and Selanne. They've also added two capable veterans in Todd Bertuzzi and Mathieu Schneider.
Niedermayer's return has been compared to that of Roger Clemens, who came back midway through the year with the Yankees and was largely ineffectual. There are major differences, though. Clemens was already far past his prime, while Niedermayer's still at the top of his game. It may take a little while for the rust to wear off, but Niedermayer showed last year that he's still one of the greats: he won the Conn Smythe Trophy as playoff MVP and was a finalist for the Norris Trophy as best defenceman. Once he's back on form, he should be able to turn the Ducks into a powerful contender again.
However, there is still one problem to face: that of the salary cap. Basically, the Ducks are fine for this season even with Niedermayer's contract, but are about $1 million over next season's cap. Greg Ballentine gives a great explanation of the details here. It will be interesting to see what GM Brian Burke does to clear sufficient cap space for next season so Niedermayer can return to the roster, but according to what Burke told the Globe and Mail's Eric Duhatschek, he doesn't think it will pose much of a problem.
"We have an offer," he said. "I could hang up this phone and fix this right away. We're trying to make the best hockey deal we can make. We're not in a bind at all. Of the 29 teams — we don't talk to Edmonton - so of the 28 other teams, there's plenty of interest in making this predicament go away."
Hopefully, Burke won't have to give up too much to fix his cap problems. Some, including Duhatschek, have suggested trading Schneider, but he's been one of their best players thus far, and a top-four defence lineup of Niedermayer, Chris Pronger, Francis Beauchemin, and Schneider would be the most fearsome in the league. It would be much better for the Ducks if Burke was able to move Todd Marchant instead, who is paid far too much for his five points thus far and primarily fourth-line role. It will be interesting to watch and see what happens here, but my gut feeling is that Niedermayer is just the catalyst needed to catapult the Ducks back to the echelons of the league's elite, and maybe even enough to give them another Cup.