Wanted: Better Blue Jays owners

One of the most interesting themes around the Blue Jays lately is the discussion of how their ownership has changed [Stephen Brunt, The Globe and Mail] since the death of Ted Rogers. Rogers CEO Nadir Mohamed recently said the company remains committed to the Jays in a conference call, but talked of "bringing costs in line" [Jeff Blair, The Globe and Mail]. Those comments, as well as the recent trade of Alex Rios for nothing [Bob Elliott, Toronto Sun] and Scott Rolen for prospects, have led to speculation that Rogers may sell the team, as well as plenty of indignation over the team being run like a business.

However, that indignation is misplaced in my mind. There's nothing wrong with running a team like a business; after all, a business-driven approach led to Billy Beane's Moneyball strategy in Oakland. That exact approach is more difficult to execute these days, but the business principles behind it of finding undervalued assets, developing them and then selling them for more than their true value still hold true. In fact, they often apply across sports; see Mike Gillis' "Moneypuck" plan with the Vancouver Canucks.

The problem is that Rogers is currently approaching the problem from the wrong end. What they see is declining revenues. Perhaps the best example is the rapidly falling attendance) [Sports Business Daily]. The Toronto Star's Garth Woosley wrote that the Jays' average home attendance is the 25th-worst in baseball this year and that they're the worst draw in the majors on the road. Now, the Jays' attendance hasn't always been bad, even recently; Baseball Reference indicates that they were in the upper half of the AL for the last two years and eighth the year before that.

The apparent solution for Rogers? Bring their expenses in line with their revenues. Reduce payroll to a level that will allow them to make a profit despite diminished attendance. You have to think that's at least a factor [Drew Fairservice, Ghostrunner on First] in the deal that sent third baseman Scott Rolen to Cinncinnati, even if general manager J.P. Ricciardi pulled a song-and-dance about "personal reasons" [Robert MacLeod, The Globe and Mail] (where have we heard that one before?). Moreover, they'll actually only save around $5.25 million thanks to sending cash to the Reds in the deal, as Ian Hunter of Blue Jay Hunter reported on Twitter. Still, from a fire sale point of view, it's a start. The Rios trade is another logical step in that direction (Jeff Blair, The Globe and Mail), especially as it's being called "the largest salary dump in MLB history" [Buster Olney, ESPN.com]. The real revelation of their intent will come this winter, though, when they have to make decisions on again trying to trade Roy Halladay and other veteran players.

In my mind, though, cutting payroll to match revenues will only beget a vicious cycle. Toronto is not a market where most people go to view talented prospects or enjoy a day at the ballpark; Toronto fans tend to get behind winning teams or teams that have a buzz around them. The best example is the Toronto Argonauts; during their Grey Cup campaign in 2004, they drew a ton of interest, but they've struggled since then and are barely noticed in their home market these days. The Raptors are also a strong case in point; they attracted relatively little interest during the early years when they weren't all that good, but have been coming on strong in recent years with a couple of playoff runs. Last year's step back hurt them a bit. It's a similar story with Toronto FC; sure, they haven't acheived much on the field yet, but their fans have been incredibly restless considering how new they are to the league. Even in the first season, there were plenty ticked off that they weren't already in the playoffs, and that discontent has grown over time. That's motivated the team to add older veterans like Dwayne DeRosario in hopes of winning now.

NFL International vice-president Gord Smeaton gave me the perfect quote on this when I interviewed him for the Queen's Alumni Review last fall about the NFL and their games in Toronto. "Toronto isn't a sports city," he said. "It's an entertainment city." To me, that's a perfect way to describe it. Sure, there are plenty of diehard fans who will go to games whether their team is awesome or atrocious, but they're not the ones most important to the bottom line. The difference between making money and losing it are the fans who show up only when there's something to see, and those fans are a significant force in Toronto.

Now, the Leafs are largely an exception to this, as they get plenty of interest and support even when they're awful. Part of that's due to sheer demographics, though; there are so many diehard Leafs fans in the area that there's tremendous demand for tickets regardless of how they're playing. However, for many years they stuck to the "middle way" of doing enough to make the playoffs but not enough to win it all, never really taking time to rebuild; in my mind, that was at least partly due to business-driven fears of what would happen if they ever missed the playoffs. Seeing as MLSE's largest stakeholder is the Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan, there's a good reason one of the best Leafs' sites out there is called Pension Plan Puppets. Ironically, since then, the Leafs have taken several steps in the right direction, hiring general manager Brian Burke and going into full rebuilding mode. They're still getting great fan support, and they'll be good again in the future.

Unfortunately, the Jays under Ricciardi have adopted the Leafs' old business plan; do enough to keep fans coming, but never enough to contend. They never increased their payroll to a level where they could compete with the Yankees and Red Sox in the present, but they were just as unwilling to go into a rebuilding mode and try and compete with cheap prospects a few years down the road. The middle way is inoffensive, as the team's always good enough to offer false hope (see their hot start this year) despite their lack of accomplishments. Moreover, it gives some fans a smug sense of superiority; "Well, at least we're not as bad as the Orioles or the Pirates!" That is misplaced; those organizations may be worse at the moment, but they're attempting full-fledged rebuilds and could be very good down the road. Look at Tampa Bay's turnaround last year. Meanwhile, the Jays persist in the long journey towards mediocrity.

There is perhaps some hope, though. If the team is sold, new owners may be more willing to invest in building a solid franchise. Even if Rogers hangs on to them, they may not be as tight-fisted as many fear. Toronto Sports Media reported that Prime Time Sports host Bob McCown said last night that Ricciardi should be gone by the end of the year and the payroll next year would jump to $100-120 million. With the Jays' promising young pitchers, that might just be enough to contend. A contending team with a new general manager would likely restore the fans' faith and dramatically increase attendance and interest (as well as ratings on the Rogers broadcasts of Jays content on The Fan 590 and Sportsnet), paying for itself and more in the process. There is a risk, though; if that money isn't spent wisely (hello, Vernon Wells!), the team could be worse off than before, with a losing record, lacklustre attendance and a massive payroll. I can't see the cautious suits at Rogers making that kind of a gamble on their own, but interim president Paul Beeston might be able to convince them; after all, Beeston was there during the glory years and knows just how well the city will support a good baseball team. He also knows what it takes to build a winner. If this payroll increase is in fact the case, the Rios deal might actually make some sense, as it would give the Jays more room to maneuver [Dustin Parkes, Drunk Jays Fans]. Given Rogers' track record, I'll believe it when I see it, though.

Lawrie taken 16th overall

Langley baseball star Brett Lawrie, recently the primary subject of a feature in this space, was picked 16th overall [TSN] by the Milwaukee Brewers in this afternoon's Major League Baseball First-Year Player Draft. That's the highest a Canadian position player has ever been taken: the previous record was 27th overall, established by Kevin Nicholson, a shortstop from Surrey, B.C. who went to the San Diego Padres in 1997. Only six Canadians have ever been taken in the first round: the others are my old high-school acquaintance Adam Loewen (pitcher, fourth overall to the Baltimore Orioles in 2002), Jeff Francis (pitcher, ninth overall to the Colorado Rockies in 2002), Phillipe Aumont (pitcher, 11th overall to the Seattle Mariners in 2007) and Scott Thorman (infielder, 30th overall to the Atlanta Braves in 2000). Lawrie's been getting some very high praise: here's a sampling of it.

- Shi Davidi, The Canadian Press

"Scouts rave about his raw power and some believe he may be the most advanced hitter at age 18 in the country's history. But it's the intangibles that really seem to set him apart, what one described as "the ridiculous fearlessness" he shows on the field and a relentless competitive drive to dominate.
"You could put this kid in a stadium with 50,000 people and tell him he's facing Josh Beckett tomorrow and he'd smile and think, 'I'm going to get Josh Beckett,"' said one executive who has watched Lawrie play extensively. "At this point he probably won't but he'll go up there, not be intimidated, take his swings and look good doing it. He's got no fear. Period."
Added another scout from a team thinking of drafting Lawrie: "He's consistently hit at a high level the past three years. He's definitely got good raw power and the ability to make consistent contact. His bat is very advanced."
So advanced, in fact, that he's being considered for Canada's Olympic roster.

- Jeremy Sandler, National Post:

[F]ew prospects draw favourable comparisons to such former big-league MVPs as Larry Walker and Justin Morneau.
"Larry was by far the best player that had ever walked into the [BCPL]," [Langley Blaze coach Doug] Mathieson said. "Larry was a true five-tool player and I'd say Brett is the next Larry Walker.
"Justin Morneau was a dominant player in our league, he hit more home runs, but he wasn't the all-around athlete that Brett was."
Though [Toronto Blue Jays' director of Canadian scouting Kevin] Briand never saw Walker play, he said Lawrie is as good a player he has seen in 20 years of scouting in Canada.
"His performance in the past year-and-a-half is right up there with the Justin Morneaus," said Briand. "He has just stood out." (square brackets mine)

- Terry Bell, Vancouver Province:

"Yeah. Just a little Canadian guy playing his game. Try selling that one to Kansas City Royals pitchers Luke Hochevar and Kyle Davies. Lawrie faced both of them when the Blaze did their annual tour in Arizona in March.
'They brought out Kyle Davies and Luke Hochevar to pitch against us and Brett hit doubles against both of them,' said Blaze coach Doug Mathieson.
'Kyle was throwing 90-91 m.p.h. His first pitch was a fastball. Brett took it for a ball. The second pitch was a changeup and Brett hit it off the wall. Davies kind of looked around and said, 'Excuse me.'
'Then, about the fourth inning they brought out Hochevar. First pitch fastball, bang, right off the centre-field wall. The next pitch he stole third.'
Hochevar's in the Royals rotation. Davies is in the minors after going 7-15 with Atlanta and the Royals in 2007."

-Rob Iracane, on Walkoff Walk's liveblog of the draft:

"16. Milwaukee Brewers - Brett Lawrie C, Canadia: Raw pull power and a cannon from behind the plate. He has quickness but needs to work on advanced catching skills like blocking and farting on the umpire. Our friend from the North was interviewed by Marc Hulet. Kid's probably sorry to not be drafted by the Blue Jays, thus subjecting his salary to the weak US dollar. Four catchers in the top 16!"

- Summary from Lawrie's MLB.com Draft Report:

"Scouting Canadian players can sometimes be difficult because of the lack of opportunity to see them. But scouts know all about Lawrie and his plus power potential, something he's been able to show off while playing for the Langley Blaze in British Columbia. What they don't know is where he can play, though he's shown the tools -- raw though they may be -- to handle being a catcher. It may take a while, but putting that bat behind the plate could one day make him a premium player."

Very impressive praise. Sure, we'll have to wait and see how he develops, particularly on the catching end, but Russell Martin's been doing all right there, and he only switched to the position after junior college. A catcher who can smack the ball the way Lawrie can? That's got to have people salivating over memories of Mike Piazza. Getting that kind of hitting and power with even decent defense behind the plate is a great combination.

An interesting tidbit is that Lawrie's sister Danielle pitches on the Canadian softball team and will be competing for gold in Beijing this summer, along with teammate Lauren Bay-Regula (Jason Bay's sister). Men's baseball obviously gets far more attention than women's softball, but as someone who worked as a softball umpire for five years and handled some of the highest-level minor ball, I can tell you that those players are incredibly talented as well. This neat anecdote from Bell's story shows that the baseball skills run in the family:

"Danielle won't be in Langley today. She's in Oklahoma City with Team Canada but she has a deal with her coach so she can see the draft on ESPN.
'It is exciting,' she said Tuesday when asked about her brother's rise. 'I've been kind of following it here and there. I've been busy but my dad keeps me updated. I went on the [Baseball Canada] website to follow how he was doing in the Dominican.'
And just like her Team Canada teammate Lauren Bay-Regula and her brother Jason Bay of the Pittsburgh Pirates, the Lawries get asked that one question ... who'd win if they faced off?
'We've never tested that out,' she said. 'He'd catch for me at home and I'd joke around and say, 'Oh, you wouldn't be able to hit it.' But I know that kid has crazy bat speed so I think he'd be able to get a fly ball on a couple. But he ain't hittin' them outta the park, that's for sure.'
'I think I could give her a run for her money,' Brett said with a laugh.
So dad gets the final word.
'She'd put one right under his chin and then try to break his back with a change-up,' Russ laughed. 'I know her. They have a great rivalry.'
Not to mention great futures."

One more note: it sounds like Lawrie was all set to go even higher, according to Bob Elliott's sources. As Elliott wrote this morning, "Canadian infielder Brett Lawrie will go seventh overall this afternoon in Major League Baseball's annual draft of high-schoolers and collegians.
Barring a last-minute change, the Cincinnati Reds are set to select the Langley, B.C., native if the draft falls the way they want it to. " Instead, the Reds took first baseman Yonder Alonso, who's also seen primarily as a hitter.

From MLB's draft report on Alonso: It can be quite a debate over which college first baseman should go first on Draft day. Alonso is a hitter, period, with a great approach and power, especially the other way right now. Defensively, he's no great shakes, but it's that bat that teams will dream about putting in the middle of their lineup to produce plenty of runs in the future.

I'm guessing what must have happened here is the Reds were looking for a pure hitter and had Alonso ranked above Lawrie, but were sure he'd be taken before the draft got to their slot. Some people had him above seventh in mock drafts, some just below. Thus, when he fell to them, they must have decided to jump that way and leave Lawrie. However, Baseball America's John Manuel thought it was unusual: he was expecting them to take shortstop Gordon Beckham, who went to the White Sox with the next pick.

"Not so fast my friend.
Gordon Beckham is NOT going to Cincinnati. The Reds took Yonder Alonso in something of a surprise, but Alonso is a heck of a hitter. He’s short to the ball, quick through the zone and has a polished approach. This really is the first case where a team took a college first baseman and decided he was just too good to ignore, no matter that they have a young first baseman in Joey Votto. But Votto has played left field in the past and some scouts believe he actually could be better defensively in left field. Alonso might be part of a post-Adam Dunn team in Cincinnati and should go off in the Great American Ballpark. Now the big question is for the White Sox — Smoak or Gordon Beckham?

You can bet the Brewers are happy Elliott's prediction didn't come true: according to Jim Callis' mock draft at Baseball America, he was the guy they wanted all along, but they weren't sure he'd still be available. As Callis writes, "The Brewers would love Lawrie and until last night didn't think he had much of a chance to last 16 picks. If he doesn't, they'll have to react to whomever falls, possibly Wallace and more likely Friedrich. Milwaukee had been rumored to be interested in a college reliever to help shore up its big league bullpen, but that's not a priority here." He also correctly predicted the Brewers taking Lawrie. As Manuel wrote on the Baseball America draft blog, Lawrie could be a bit of a steal even, considering the resources the Brewers put into Canadian scouting.

When’s the last time we got the Brewers right? But here, we did, with the Brewers making Lawrie the top-drafted Canadian hitter ever. No one scouts Canada as aggressively as the Brewers and they’ve seen Lawrie well against their team in extended spring training. So if Lawrie can catch, and hit like scouts think he can, he could be a tremendous value at 16.

Update: Gary Ahuja and John Gordon at the Langley Times have some excellent related content, including this main piece, a short piece on Brett and Danielle, and a video interview.

Baseball: Langley prospects blaze trail to the majors

Photo: Brett Lawrie batting for the Canadian junior team in Mexico (Photo from the Langley Blaze website).

Many of the eyes of the baseball world are on my neighbourhood these days, mostly due to the exceptional baseball talent cropping up in its backyard. The key player is phenom Brett Lawrie of the Langley Blaze, who has been high on many people's lists for a long time. Bob Elliott, the great baseball columnist for Sun Media, has had him as the top-rated Canadian prospect since at least April, and wrote an excellent piece on the weekend about how fast Lawrie's stock has been rising. The scouts Elliott quotes offer some very significant praise:

"'He hits the ball with more authority than Justin Morneau in his draft year,' one scout said.
'He's the best high school hitter I've ever seen from Canada,' said another."

That's just the beginning. Consider this passage from later in the article:

"The highlight was a doubleheader sweep of the Seattle Mariners rookie-class Dominican summer league team in which Lawrie hit five homers.
The right-handed hitter had homered three times when a scout said jokingly: 'Well, he hit the ball out to left and centre, but if he was any good he'd be able to it out to right, too.' Two pitches later ... home run to right field.
Asked what he was going to put on his report, the scout answered: 'I'm going to compare him with Babe Ruth ... but I might be a tad light.'
There is not a Ruth in this year's draft. There is only one Lawrie.
'He's such a polished hitter,' said the scouting director of one club which has Lawrie in the mix. 'We go into Ohio or Pennsylvania and see a high school hitter have a great day but the pitcher is throwing 82 m.p.h. We saw Lawrie in Arizona, in Florida and now in the Dominican. He's hitting bombs off second-year pros.'"

There's a key point in there. One of the more interesting but sometimes overlooked points from Michael Lewis' famous book Moneyball (soon to be reviewed in this space) is how Billy Beane and the Oakland A's were big on drafting college players instead of high-school players because they were less of a gamble. Their plan was they could evaluate players more effectively after they had an extensive track record playing against the high-calibre opposition in college than they could from the limited stats and vastly differing quality of competition available in high-school leagues. As I see it, the advantage with this is more of the players you select will work out in the long run: the disadvantage is you're likely to miss out on the absolute cream of the crop, as it's unlikely they'll go unselected out of high school and take the college route. The advantage of Canadian high-schoolers from the Vancouver area is they offer the best of both worlds: they have the chance to compete in a high-quality league where stats actually mean something (the British Columbia Premier Baseball League, spotlighted in Matthew Sekeres' excellent Globe feature this past weekend), but they also haven't been passed over in a previous draft.

Consider this excerpt from Sekeres' piece.

"Major League Baseball's first-year player draft is less than two weeks away and most of the reports have already been filed. In a couple of weeks, the scouts will return to size up British Columbia's crop of 2009 draft-eligible players, who in some cases are just 16.
So goes the cycle of the best amateur baseball league in the country, and a loop that is changing the face of player development in Canada.
Almost a decade after B.C.'s amateur baseball revolution, the Premier League, for players 16 to 18, is a can't-miss stop for professional scouts and college coaches. Since a formal merger between barnstorming clubs on Vancouver Island and the Lower Mainland in 1999, the league has averaged about seven drafted players a year. Mixed among them are some world-class talents.
'It's certainly the standard in the country,' said Greg Hamilton, the director of national teams for Baseball Canada. 'It brings together the vast majority of talent in one league and matches them with the top coaches.'
From a developmental perspective, the 11-team league measures up to, and beyond, high-school baseball south of the border and it is designed to graduate players into U.S. collegiate ranks. The very best might immediately sign with major-league clubs.
'Normally, the top players play down to the lower players,' said Walt Burrows, the Canadian supervisor for MLB's scouting bureau. 'In their league, it's the opposite. So not only is it a pretty good brand of baseball, but the elite players are challenged. That's the difference between their league and any other league in the country.' ... Today, almost every BCPBL game is a showcase, featuring players worthy of being drafted or of receiving athletic scholarships. The quantity, and quality, of Canadians in the major leagues is on an upswing, and those who monitored the Premier League say it is one of the driving forces behind the trend."

That sounds pretty good to me. It's not just all talk, either: the list of players that have come out of this league is very impressive, including Victoria Mariners' outfielder Rich Harden (now a star pitcher with the Oakland A's), first baseman Justin Morneau and pitcher Jeff Francis of the North Delta Blue Jays (now with the Minnesota Twins and Colorado Rockies respectively), and the highest-drafted Canadian ever, pitcher Adam Loewen of the Whalley Chiefs.

(Interesting sidebar: I actually briefly went to high school with Loewen, who was drafted fourth overall by Baltimore in 2002. He finished Grade 12 at Fraser Valley Christian High that year, the same year I completed Grade Eight.)

Another impressive thing about this league is the opportunities its players have to compete against high-calibre outside competition. Before three of the top Blaze prospects (Lawrie, pitcher Stosh Wawrzasek and outfielder Carter Morrison, who Elliott has ranked fourth and 16th respectively on his most recent list of Canadian prospects) joined the Canadian national junior team for a series against major league clubs' Dominican teams, their club went to Arizona for spring training to take on some pro minor league teams. Check out this piece from my Langley Times colleague Gary Ahuja for more on that trip and the season prospects for the Blaze.

The national junior team also offers some great opportunities for the top Canadian ballplayers, and they're certainly holding their own against tough competition. The team went 7-1 overall against the major-league clubs' Dominican affiliates. All the Langley prospects did well for themselves: Morrison went 3 for 5 with a home run, double and five RBIs in the latest game, Wawrzasek threw six innings over two games with seven strikeouts while allowing only two runs, and Lawrie hit an amazing .500 (17 for 34) during the series with eight home runs. Overall against pro teams this spring, he hit .700 with 14 extra-base hits. As Sekeres writes, his best performance was against the Mariners' affiliate, where he hit an unprecedented five home runs (to all fields) in one day during a doubleheader.

Lawrie probably helped his stock the most with those exhibition trips, but it's been rising faster than technology stocks during the late nineties. On Elliott's April 13 ratings, Lawrie was listed as the top Canadian prospect, but he was rated only 135th on the Perfect Game combined list (high school and college) and only 143rd on Baseball America's top-300 high school prospects list. By April 28, Elliott had him as a potential second-rounder, but others were slower to jump on board: Richard Griffin had him as a third-rounder at best as recently as May 21. The original Baseball America and Perfect Game ratings on him were still in force by May 8, but he'd jumped to 37th in Baseball American's rankings by May 24th. He then quickly rose to 16th, and he's now being trumpeted as at least a mid-first round pick by Sekeres, a possible top-15 selection by Baseball Digest Daily, and even possibly as high as 10th overall by Elliott. Jeff Blair discussed him on Prime Time Sports yesterday and said it would be interesting to see what happens if the Jays have the opportunity to take him with the 16th pick, but he doesn't expect that to occur. "The buzz you're hearing is he won't be available when the Jays pick," he said.

The last word on Lawrie should appropriately go to Elliott:

"Lawrie is a fast-moving stock on the Baseball America top 100 list, going from 56th to 37th to 16th in the past three weeks.
Then came the trip to the Dominican where Lawrie and his pals knocked down fences beating Yankees farmhands 11-3, sweeping the Mariners 8-5 and 14-5, losing 8-7 in the ninth to the Angels, beating the Rangers 8-7, knocking off the Twins 7-1 and humbling the Blue Jays 21-5.
'A bunch of high school kids from Canada laying beatings like that on pros. They almost won every game,' another scout said. 'I'm sure by now they are telling stories on the island, the kid is going to be a legend.'"

This guy could really be special, and his Langley teammates aren't too shoddy, either.

Key links:
- Langley Times articles on Lawrie, Wawrzasek and Morrison by Gary Ahuja.
- Matthew Sekeres' Globe feature on the Premier League.
- Elliott's latest column on Lawrie.
- Neate had some thoughts on Lawrie in his latest baseball post.