Still working on figuring out the best time for this feature. Any thoughts on when you'd like to see it? As always, let me know in the comments or via Twitter, Facebook or e-mail. Be sure to leave your submissions for upcoming editions as well!
Video Of The Day: Relient K - Sadie Hawkins Dance
I've always liked this song. For one thing, it's a nice anthem for us somewhat nerdy types. For another thing, it reminds you of the dangers of egotism; thinking you're a big deal usually is a prerequisite to a fall.
My Links:
- None of the stories I've written this week have been posted yet, but you can check out this video I did for The South Delta Leader on the opening of the new Canada Line transit system Monday:
The Best Of The Intertubes:
Hockey:
- The great Tom Benjamin fills Greg Wyshynski in on the five reasons he loves hockey. Benjamin's long been one of my favourite writers, so it's pretty cool to see why he likes the game [Puck Daddy].
- Benjamin also has a good look at the Red Wings' signing of Todd Bertuzzi [Canucks Corner].
- David Backes and Ryan Kesler playing together for Team USA? That might be a bit awkward after Kesler's comments about Backes' wife during last year's playoffs [Nucks Misconduct].
- Chemmy brings us a public service announcement on behalf of Leafs' defenceman Luke Schenn [Pension Plan Puppets].
- Claude Lemieux will join a cast of former NHLers and figure skaters on the CBC figure skating show Battle Of The Blades this fall. Think of it as Dancing With The Stars, but on ice. Will Kris Draper go all Tonya Harding on Lemieux? [James Mirtle, From The Rink].
Football:
- Joe Posnanski breaks down the real reason Brett Favre came back. It's not what you think; it's much, much worse! [JoeBlog]
- Minda Haas gets her hands on a Heisman Trophy. Could she be a darkhorse candidate this year? [Getting To First Base].
- lowercase breaks down the Mountain West Conference [The Phoenix Pub].
- It's not just the Raiders' coaches who fight. But who would have guessed the Bills would be next? [Los Angeles Times, via The AP's Dave Goldberg].
Baseball:
- Ian Hunter on the surprising humanity of Roy Halladay [The Blue Jay Hunter].
- Keith Law takes down the Jays' failure to sign three of their first four picks [Drunk Jays Fans].
- Aaron Fischman looks at the state of the Dodgers [Dodger Blue Blog].
- Will Carroll has some nice praise for Joe Posnanski's The Machine (which will be released to the general public on 09/09/09!). "If there's a better sports book this year, I haven't read it." Can't wait to buy this one. [Twitter]
Basketball:
- Chuck Knoblockhead examines the real reason behind the Rick Pitino restaurant affair, with the help of Bill James and "Babermetrics" [Style Points].
- Did Shaq steal his reality TV show plan from former Suns' teammate Steve Nash? [Fully Clips]
- A Kevin Garnett Chelsea jersey? Would have expected KG to show better taste than that. [Ball Don't Lie].
- Nat looks at the Raptors' acquisitions of Amir Johnson and Sonny Weems [Heels on Hardwood].
Soccer:
- Sam breaks down Manchester United's disappointing loss to Burnley [The Canadian Stretford End].
- Ginge looks at if World Soccer Daily host Steven Cohen is going after Antony Ananins, the man who organized the advertising boycott of Cohen's show [Ginge Talks The Footy].
- Looking at the MLS teams heading in to the playoffs [Avoiding The Drop].
Other Sports:
- Usain Bolt follows in JFK's footsteps [Chris Chase, Fourth-Place Medal].
That does it for today's edition of The Link Train. Send me your submissions for tomorrow!
Showing posts with label Will Carroll. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Will Carroll. Show all posts
Thursday, August 20, 2009
Tuesday, June 16, 2009
Comparing the MLB and NFL drafts
Inspired by a Twitter suggestion from Will Carroll of Baseball Prospectus, I figured it would be interesting to compare the washout rate of first-round prospects across the four major North American sports. Carroll suggested 2004 as a year, so I started there, but the baseball evaluation was difficult, as several of those prospects are just beginning to crack the league. Thus, I went back a couple years further to the 2002 draft. It's a nice distance, as prospects' status is usually pretty well set after seven years. This MLB draft also has the added appeal of being featured by Michael Lewis in Moneyball. Here's the first part of the comparison, looking at the MLB and NFL first-round drafts; I'll have the second half, looking at the NBA and NHL, up tomorrow.
First, a note on the evaluation system used. I was looking for a simple way to compare prospects across sports, so I went with a five-point scale. Under this system, players ranked as a five are presumed to be among the best in the league at their position, while players ranked as a four are labeled as regular starters, threes are marginal players who were still in the league last season, twos are busts and ones are the worst busts.
In order to figure out who slots in where, I tried to come up with a system that could be relatively comparable across positions and sports. Obviously, single stats like on-base percentage or rushing yards won't work for this. However, all of these leagues do have stats for how many games a player was involved in and if they were selected to play in the league's all-star game. Thus, I was able to create a system that can be applied across sports with only minimal tweaking. The specific criteria for each sport are listed before that sport's table. This clearly isn't going to be a perfect system, and there are other variables such as team quality that aren't taken into consideration here; a starter on a poor team might be worse than a prospect or backup at a better team The seven years of distance does help with this, though, as teams have usually traded players who could start somewhere else by this point. This also doesn't account for injuries, as it made the most sense to base this on last year's stats; however, I have included some notes on certain players who might have fit into a higher category if not for injury or other circumstances. This is intended just as an overall look at the differences between the drafts, though, not an absolute evaluation of any of these players. Moreover, limiting this to one year means it may not be applicable generally; it's more of an attempt to try and get a handle on the differences between the leagues. Ratings and notes are after the tables:
[Table from Wikipedia]
System:
5 = All-star (appeared in at least one all-star game)
4 = Solid (in league, played in 2/3 of games or more last season for everyday players, pitched 40 or more innings for pitchers)
3 = Marginal (played in at least one game in the big leagues last season)
2 = One-off (made it to the big leagues at least once, not in league last year)
1 = Bust (never played in the big leagues as of last year)
Ratings:
5 = Fielder, Saunders, Kazmir, Hamels: four players, 13.3 per cent of all 30 draft picks
4 = Upton, Greinke, Francis, Hermida, Greene, Swisher, Loney, Span, Guthrie, Francoeur, Blanton, Cain: 12 players, 33.3 per cent
3 = Bullington, Loewen, Moore, Ring: four players, 13.3 per cent
2 = Meyer, Adams: two players, 6.67 per cent
1 = Gruler, Everts, Brownlie, McCurdy, Santos, Grigsby, Fritz, Mayberry: eight players, 26.7 per cent
Notes: Grienke and Swisher could potentially crack the all-star ranks; Upton might as well if he returns to previous form. Loewen (who I went to high school with) was decent, but struggled with control; he was badly hurt last year and had to give up pitching, but is now trying to come back as an everyday player in Toronto's system. Bullington, the number-one pick overall (largely thanks to his low contract demands), is now a Blue Jays' reliever. Francoeur started off well, but has been horrible lately and might fall down to marginal status if his slide continues. Mayberry made his MLB debut this season with the Phillies.
NFL:
Draft:
[Table from Wikipedia]
System:
5 = All-star (at least one Pro Bowl selection)
4= Solid (started 2/3 or more of team's regular-season games last year)
3 = Marginal (started at one point in time, played in the league last year)
2 = One-off (started more than five games in their career, didn't play last year)
1 = Bust (started less than five games in their career)
Rankings:
5 = Peppers, Williams, Henderson, Freeney, Shockey, Haynesworth, Walker, Reed, Sheppard: nine players, 28.1 per cent of all 32 picks,
4 = Jammer, McKinnie, Jones, Buchanon, Graham, Thomas, Colombo: seven players, 21.9 per cent of all picks
3 = Carr, Sims, Stallworth, Duckett, Lelie, Harris, Grant, Stevens, Simmons, Thomas, Ramsey: 11 players, 34.4 per cent of all picks
2 = Harrington, Williams, Green: three players, 8.8 per cent of all picks
1 = Bryant, Rumph: two players, 6.3 per cent of all picks
Notes: Jones is not expected to start this year. Williams has been out of the league for a couple of seasons, but is trying to get back in, as is Bryant. Stallworth played in 11 games last year, but only started seven and is facing legal trouble. Grant started all of the Saints' first eight games last year and then was injured; he could easily move up to a four with a healthy season. Sheppard is a two-time Pro Bowler from 2004 and 2006, but only started three games last year. Colombo is also a metal guitarist. Simmons started the Steelers' first four games last season and then got hurt, but was released in the off-season. He has not yet found a new team.
How the leagues stack up:
As you can see from the above table, the NFL first-round draftees from 2002 were much more successful. Only 6.3 per cent of all the NFL first-round draftees examined ranked as ones, compared to 26.7 per cent of all MLB first-round draftees. That's even more impressive when you consider that even the NFL player considered the biggest bust by these metrics (Wendell Bryant) played in 29 career games and started nine; the 26.7 per cent of MLB players ranked as ones never played in the big leagues. Moreover, 28.7 per cent of NFL first-rounders from 2002 earned at least one Pro Bowl nod prior to this year, while only 13.3 per cent of MLB first-rounders from that year made the All-Star game.
That doesn't mean that NFL teams are necessarily inherently better at evaluating talent, though. NFL picks have several other factors working in their favour. For one thing, NFL players are selected out of college, not high school, so GMs already have a good idea of how they perform against tough competition; some MLB picks are taken out of the college ranks, but many are chosen straight from high school.
Moreover, the NFL draft is limited to seven rounds while the MLB draft goes 50 rounds; the sheer numbers of players selected means that first-round picks face much stiffer competition for roster spots. The extensive minor league system in baseball and the longer expected development time means that many top picks will never see the big leagues, while a first-round pick in the NFL is all but guaranteed to at least play in the league (which is why the evaluation of what's considered a class-two and class-one bust in each league is offset in my system). Still, the success/failure rates do make for an interesting read. What will perhaps be more illuminating to look at is how the NHL and NBA compare to the NFL, as the development systems and the numbers of players selected are more similar to those found in football. I'll have a post with the NHL and NBA numbers tomorrow.
First, a note on the evaluation system used. I was looking for a simple way to compare prospects across sports, so I went with a five-point scale. Under this system, players ranked as a five are presumed to be among the best in the league at their position, while players ranked as a four are labeled as regular starters, threes are marginal players who were still in the league last season, twos are busts and ones are the worst busts.
In order to figure out who slots in where, I tried to come up with a system that could be relatively comparable across positions and sports. Obviously, single stats like on-base percentage or rushing yards won't work for this. However, all of these leagues do have stats for how many games a player was involved in and if they were selected to play in the league's all-star game. Thus, I was able to create a system that can be applied across sports with only minimal tweaking. The specific criteria for each sport are listed before that sport's table. This clearly isn't going to be a perfect system, and there are other variables such as team quality that aren't taken into consideration here; a starter on a poor team might be worse than a prospect or backup at a better team The seven years of distance does help with this, though, as teams have usually traded players who could start somewhere else by this point. This also doesn't account for injuries, as it made the most sense to base this on last year's stats; however, I have included some notes on certain players who might have fit into a higher category if not for injury or other circumstances. This is intended just as an overall look at the differences between the drafts, though, not an absolute evaluation of any of these players. Moreover, limiting this to one year means it may not be applicable generally; it's more of an attempt to try and get a handle on the differences between the leagues. Ratings and notes are after the tables:
[Table from Wikipedia]
System:
5 = All-star (appeared in at least one all-star game)
4 = Solid (in league, played in 2/3 of games or more last season for everyday players, pitched 40 or more innings for pitchers)
3 = Marginal (played in at least one game in the big leagues last season)
2 = One-off (made it to the big leagues at least once, not in league last year)
1 = Bust (never played in the big leagues as of last year)
Ratings:
5 = Fielder, Saunders, Kazmir, Hamels: four players, 13.3 per cent of all 30 draft picks
4 = Upton, Greinke, Francis, Hermida, Greene, Swisher, Loney, Span, Guthrie, Francoeur, Blanton, Cain: 12 players, 33.3 per cent
3 = Bullington, Loewen, Moore, Ring: four players, 13.3 per cent
2 = Meyer, Adams: two players, 6.67 per cent
1 = Gruler, Everts, Brownlie, McCurdy, Santos, Grigsby, Fritz, Mayberry: eight players, 26.7 per cent
Notes: Grienke and Swisher could potentially crack the all-star ranks; Upton might as well if he returns to previous form. Loewen (who I went to high school with) was decent, but struggled with control; he was badly hurt last year and had to give up pitching, but is now trying to come back as an everyday player in Toronto's system. Bullington, the number-one pick overall (largely thanks to his low contract demands), is now a Blue Jays' reliever. Francoeur started off well, but has been horrible lately and might fall down to marginal status if his slide continues. Mayberry made his MLB debut this season with the Phillies.
NFL:
Draft:
[Table from Wikipedia]
System:
5 = All-star (at least one Pro Bowl selection)
4= Solid (started 2/3 or more of team's regular-season games last year)
3 = Marginal (started at one point in time, played in the league last year)
2 = One-off (started more than five games in their career, didn't play last year)
1 = Bust (started less than five games in their career)
Rankings:
5 = Peppers, Williams, Henderson, Freeney, Shockey, Haynesworth, Walker, Reed, Sheppard: nine players, 28.1 per cent of all 32 picks,
4 = Jammer, McKinnie, Jones, Buchanon, Graham, Thomas, Colombo: seven players, 21.9 per cent of all picks
3 = Carr, Sims, Stallworth, Duckett, Lelie, Harris, Grant, Stevens, Simmons, Thomas, Ramsey: 11 players, 34.4 per cent of all picks
2 = Harrington, Williams, Green: three players, 8.8 per cent of all picks
1 = Bryant, Rumph: two players, 6.3 per cent of all picks
Notes: Jones is not expected to start this year. Williams has been out of the league for a couple of seasons, but is trying to get back in, as is Bryant. Stallworth played in 11 games last year, but only started seven and is facing legal trouble. Grant started all of the Saints' first eight games last year and then was injured; he could easily move up to a four with a healthy season. Sheppard is a two-time Pro Bowler from 2004 and 2006, but only started three games last year. Colombo is also a metal guitarist. Simmons started the Steelers' first four games last season and then got hurt, but was released in the off-season. He has not yet found a new team.
How the leagues stack up:
As you can see from the above table, the NFL first-round draftees from 2002 were much more successful. Only 6.3 per cent of all the NFL first-round draftees examined ranked as ones, compared to 26.7 per cent of all MLB first-round draftees. That's even more impressive when you consider that even the NFL player considered the biggest bust by these metrics (Wendell Bryant) played in 29 career games and started nine; the 26.7 per cent of MLB players ranked as ones never played in the big leagues. Moreover, 28.7 per cent of NFL first-rounders from 2002 earned at least one Pro Bowl nod prior to this year, while only 13.3 per cent of MLB first-rounders from that year made the All-Star game.
That doesn't mean that NFL teams are necessarily inherently better at evaluating talent, though. NFL picks have several other factors working in their favour. For one thing, NFL players are selected out of college, not high school, so GMs already have a good idea of how they perform against tough competition; some MLB picks are taken out of the college ranks, but many are chosen straight from high school.
Moreover, the NFL draft is limited to seven rounds while the MLB draft goes 50 rounds; the sheer numbers of players selected means that first-round picks face much stiffer competition for roster spots. The extensive minor league system in baseball and the longer expected development time means that many top picks will never see the big leagues, while a first-round pick in the NFL is all but guaranteed to at least play in the league (which is why the evaluation of what's considered a class-two and class-one bust in each league is offset in my system). Still, the success/failure rates do make for an interesting read. What will perhaps be more illuminating to look at is how the NHL and NBA compare to the NFL, as the development systems and the numbers of players selected are more similar to those found in football. I'll have a post with the NHL and NBA numbers tomorrow.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
