Andrew Tinnish and the CIS influence on the Blue Jays

One of the interesting aspects of the personnel shakeup new Blue Jays' general manager Alex Anthopolous conducted today is the role it gave to a CIS alumnus. Andrew Tinnish was named as the director of amateur scouting. He'd previously been in the pro scouting department. As reported over at fellow TheScore.com Sports Federation site Mop Up Duty, Tinnish was a rather legendary CIS baseball player and coach with the Brock Badgers.

Tinnish played with the team from 1995 to 1999. During that span, he was named team MVP three times, and also holds team records for single season batting average (.500), at bats (146), hits (73), doubles (22) and RBIs (65). He's also the team leader in career at-bats (633), hits (239), doubles (47), home runs (25) and RBIs (210). The more sabermetric stats are not presented on the Brock baseball website, but I'd imagine he'd be up there in those as well. That's a very impressive career. The Badgers probably wish he was still with them; they lost 9-2 to Western yesterday, finishing their season with a 9-9 record and missing the playoffs for the first time in school history.

CIS baseball probably isn't going to have many players make it to the majors any time soon, but it still isn't a bad sport or league. It's nice to see one of its most famous lights gain a more prominent role with the Blue Jays. Of course, he isn't the only Canadian university alumnus involved with the organization: new general manager Alex Anthopolous has an economics degree from McMaster (no word on if he ever worked with the baseball team, but he's said he wasn't much of an athlete) and new professional scout and former director of professional scouting Jon Lalonde graduated from Laurentian University with a Bachelor of Commerce specializing in Sports Administration. In an industry where the front office roles are often dominated by Americans from marquee schools, it's cool to see some CIS connections.

Update: As pointed out in the comments over at The CIS Blog, there technically isn't a CIS baseball league. Brock, McMaster and five other teams play in the OUA's baseball league. They are CIS members and the OUA is a CIS regional association, but it also has other sports like baseball that do not have national competition under the CIS banner. To complicate matters further, there's also the Canadian Intercollegiate Baseball Association, which does host national championships and features many CIS institutions such as Dalhousie, McGill, Queen's and Concordia. To my knowledge, it is not affiliated with CIS.

[Cross-posted to The CIS Blog]

The (Delayed) Link Train: Where We're Highway Stars

Apologies for the delay in this Link Train post; I was planning to run it last night as per usual, but life got in the way and prevented me from finishing it until now. I should hopefully have another one ready at the normal time tonight, and perhaps even a piece of my own before then if all goes well. As always, leave links for upcoming editions in the comments, or send them to me via Twitter, Facebook or e-mail.

Video Of The Day: Deep Purple - Highway Star



One of the all-time great driving songs, this song also was one of the first real hits in the hard rock/heavy metal vein (along with Led Zeppelin's Communication Breakdown and Black Sabbath's Paranoid). It's the first track from Deep Purple's seminal 1972 album Machine Head, one of the most influential hard rock albums out there. Moreover, it shows off Jon Lord's incredible use of the Hammond organ. If anyone ever tells you the organ has no place in rock, make them listen to Deep Purple for a while.

My Links:

- My weekly CFL column, The Whole 110 Yards, is up over at The Rookies. I break down the past week's action, preview this coming week's games, and discuss the ultimate CFL road trip and the brief existence of the Sacramento Gold Miners [The Rookies].

The Best Of The Intertubes:

Football:

- Instead of a doctor, Marc Bulger is going to consult Kurt Warner on how to return from injury more quickly. Dr. James Andrews must have been too busy with Favre [Sportress of Blogitude].

- My Rookies colleague Skating Tomato previews the Buffalo Bills' season. They are the Buffalo Bills, so I predict moments of brilliance followed by eventual soul-crushing defeat [Style Points].

- A nice Steelers Daily Six Pack from Frank Mineo, featuring Isaac Redman's celebrations, Jeff Reed's pranks, Mike Wallace's Madden workout and more [Behind The Steel Curtain].

- Oh yeah, and some guy named Favre did something [Vikings Throne].

Baseball:

- Bob Elliott has a good take on the Jays drafting nine Canadians, but only signing one (he is Tony Fernandez's son, though, which is cool). [Canadian Baseball Network].

- Michael Harrison weighs in on the Jays' failure to sign three of their top four draft picks [Blue Jays Way].

- Jeff Blair on how not trading for Halladay may keep the Red Sox out of the playoffs. [The Globe and Mail].

- Eyebleaf makes the valuable point that it's nice to see the Jays going over slot on their later picks, even if they couldn't get it done at the top [Sports and the City]. Personally, I'd rather see them lock up the top picks and then sign as many of the rest as possible, though.

- Oh, and the justification by J.P. Ricciardi on why he finally decided to start going over slot years after he should have started? “I think because everyone else was doing it.". I love that our general manager uses high school popularity contest logic to make baseball decisions. [Shi Davidi, The Canadian Press, via The Globe and Mail].

- Speaking of Ricciardi, Cam Hutchinson of The Saskatoon Star-Phoenix has a nice bit on him in his most recent sports humour column. "A woman in Norwalk, Conn., who spent $2,000 to stage a dinner to honour herself as 'Nurse of the Year' has been charged with reckless endangerment and criminal impersonation for pretending to be a nurse. In sports lexicon, this is comparable to J.P. Ricciardi masquerading as a MLB general manager." I firmly endorse this sentiment.


Soccer:

- Adam reviews Fox Soccer Channel's Champions League coverage so far [Avoiding The Drop].

- Jason Davis reports that San Antonio might be interested in an MLS team again. [Match Fit USA]

- Andy Hutchins isn't impressed with Bill Simmons' recent foray into soccer writing. I liked Simmons' piece and thought he made some good points, but Hutchins brings up some interesting ones as well. [The Rookies]


Basketball:

- Washington Wizards' centre Brendan Haywood made some rather stupid homophobic comments about Stephon Marbury on Hardcore Sports Radio Monday. [Transcribed by Tas Melas, Sports Radio Interviews].

- Kelly Dwyer has an excellent takedown of Haywood's comments [Ball Don't Lie].

- A fantastic take on the matter by Kevin Arnovitz, who explains what it's like to be a gay sports journalist and invites Haywood to discuss the issue with him [TrueHoop].

- Sarah has an interesting post on the subject as well, exploring the comments on Dwyer's piece [Hornets Hype].

- In lighter NBA news, Lang Whitaker has a good review of the first episode of Shaq Vs., which saw The Big Diesel take on Big Ben (Ben Roethlisberger). Samer Ocho Cinco also looked at this over at The Rookies. [Slam Online].

Hockey:

Brandon Worley looks at the question of if Tom Hicks' financial troubles will affect the Stars [Defending Big D].

Greg Wyshynski takes a look at the Sharks stripping Patrick Marleau of the captaincy [Puck Daddy].

Vance wonders why the Islanders have three expensive goalies and not much else [Bangin Panger].

Yankee Canuck introduces us to Vancouver's new prospect, Michael Ward [Nucks Misconduct].

That does it for today's links. As mentioned above, I should have more tonight. Thanks for reading, and be sure to send me your tips and links!

Wanted: Better Blue Jays owners

One of the most interesting themes around the Blue Jays lately is the discussion of how their ownership has changed [Stephen Brunt, The Globe and Mail] since the death of Ted Rogers. Rogers CEO Nadir Mohamed recently said the company remains committed to the Jays in a conference call, but talked of "bringing costs in line" [Jeff Blair, The Globe and Mail]. Those comments, as well as the recent trade of Alex Rios for nothing [Bob Elliott, Toronto Sun] and Scott Rolen for prospects, have led to speculation that Rogers may sell the team, as well as plenty of indignation over the team being run like a business.

However, that indignation is misplaced in my mind. There's nothing wrong with running a team like a business; after all, a business-driven approach led to Billy Beane's Moneyball strategy in Oakland. That exact approach is more difficult to execute these days, but the business principles behind it of finding undervalued assets, developing them and then selling them for more than their true value still hold true. In fact, they often apply across sports; see Mike Gillis' "Moneypuck" plan with the Vancouver Canucks.

The problem is that Rogers is currently approaching the problem from the wrong end. What they see is declining revenues. Perhaps the best example is the rapidly falling attendance) [Sports Business Daily]. The Toronto Star's Garth Woosley wrote that the Jays' average home attendance is the 25th-worst in baseball this year and that they're the worst draw in the majors on the road. Now, the Jays' attendance hasn't always been bad, even recently; Baseball Reference indicates that they were in the upper half of the AL for the last two years and eighth the year before that.

The apparent solution for Rogers? Bring their expenses in line with their revenues. Reduce payroll to a level that will allow them to make a profit despite diminished attendance. You have to think that's at least a factor [Drew Fairservice, Ghostrunner on First] in the deal that sent third baseman Scott Rolen to Cinncinnati, even if general manager J.P. Ricciardi pulled a song-and-dance about "personal reasons" [Robert MacLeod, The Globe and Mail] (where have we heard that one before?). Moreover, they'll actually only save around $5.25 million thanks to sending cash to the Reds in the deal, as Ian Hunter of Blue Jay Hunter reported on Twitter. Still, from a fire sale point of view, it's a start. The Rios trade is another logical step in that direction (Jeff Blair, The Globe and Mail), especially as it's being called "the largest salary dump in MLB history" [Buster Olney, ESPN.com]. The real revelation of their intent will come this winter, though, when they have to make decisions on again trying to trade Roy Halladay and other veteran players.

In my mind, though, cutting payroll to match revenues will only beget a vicious cycle. Toronto is not a market where most people go to view talented prospects or enjoy a day at the ballpark; Toronto fans tend to get behind winning teams or teams that have a buzz around them. The best example is the Toronto Argonauts; during their Grey Cup campaign in 2004, they drew a ton of interest, but they've struggled since then and are barely noticed in their home market these days. The Raptors are also a strong case in point; they attracted relatively little interest during the early years when they weren't all that good, but have been coming on strong in recent years with a couple of playoff runs. Last year's step back hurt them a bit. It's a similar story with Toronto FC; sure, they haven't acheived much on the field yet, but their fans have been incredibly restless considering how new they are to the league. Even in the first season, there were plenty ticked off that they weren't already in the playoffs, and that discontent has grown over time. That's motivated the team to add older veterans like Dwayne DeRosario in hopes of winning now.

NFL International vice-president Gord Smeaton gave me the perfect quote on this when I interviewed him for the Queen's Alumni Review last fall about the NFL and their games in Toronto. "Toronto isn't a sports city," he said. "It's an entertainment city." To me, that's a perfect way to describe it. Sure, there are plenty of diehard fans who will go to games whether their team is awesome or atrocious, but they're not the ones most important to the bottom line. The difference between making money and losing it are the fans who show up only when there's something to see, and those fans are a significant force in Toronto.

Now, the Leafs are largely an exception to this, as they get plenty of interest and support even when they're awful. Part of that's due to sheer demographics, though; there are so many diehard Leafs fans in the area that there's tremendous demand for tickets regardless of how they're playing. However, for many years they stuck to the "middle way" of doing enough to make the playoffs but not enough to win it all, never really taking time to rebuild; in my mind, that was at least partly due to business-driven fears of what would happen if they ever missed the playoffs. Seeing as MLSE's largest stakeholder is the Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan, there's a good reason one of the best Leafs' sites out there is called Pension Plan Puppets. Ironically, since then, the Leafs have taken several steps in the right direction, hiring general manager Brian Burke and going into full rebuilding mode. They're still getting great fan support, and they'll be good again in the future.

Unfortunately, the Jays under Ricciardi have adopted the Leafs' old business plan; do enough to keep fans coming, but never enough to contend. They never increased their payroll to a level where they could compete with the Yankees and Red Sox in the present, but they were just as unwilling to go into a rebuilding mode and try and compete with cheap prospects a few years down the road. The middle way is inoffensive, as the team's always good enough to offer false hope (see their hot start this year) despite their lack of accomplishments. Moreover, it gives some fans a smug sense of superiority; "Well, at least we're not as bad as the Orioles or the Pirates!" That is misplaced; those organizations may be worse at the moment, but they're attempting full-fledged rebuilds and could be very good down the road. Look at Tampa Bay's turnaround last year. Meanwhile, the Jays persist in the long journey towards mediocrity.

There is perhaps some hope, though. If the team is sold, new owners may be more willing to invest in building a solid franchise. Even if Rogers hangs on to them, they may not be as tight-fisted as many fear. Toronto Sports Media reported that Prime Time Sports host Bob McCown said last night that Ricciardi should be gone by the end of the year and the payroll next year would jump to $100-120 million. With the Jays' promising young pitchers, that might just be enough to contend. A contending team with a new general manager would likely restore the fans' faith and dramatically increase attendance and interest (as well as ratings on the Rogers broadcasts of Jays content on The Fan 590 and Sportsnet), paying for itself and more in the process. There is a risk, though; if that money isn't spent wisely (hello, Vernon Wells!), the team could be worse off than before, with a losing record, lacklustre attendance and a massive payroll. I can't see the cautious suits at Rogers making that kind of a gamble on their own, but interim president Paul Beeston might be able to convince them; after all, Beeston was there during the glory years and knows just how well the city will support a good baseball team. He also knows what it takes to build a winner. If this payroll increase is in fact the case, the Rios deal might actually make some sense, as it would give the Jays more room to maneuver [Dustin Parkes, Drunk Jays Fans]. Given Rogers' track record, I'll believe it when I see it, though.

On Rolen, Halladay and why Ricciardi must go

So, Friday's Scott Rolen trade upset me (and many other Jays' bloggers) considerably, as you probably already know if you follow me on Twitter. I already broke it down a bit in my Last Call post at The Rookies Friday night, but I figured it was worthy of some further analysis. Without further ado, let's get to it.

First off, let's consider what the Jays lost. Rolen was hitting .320/.370/.461 in Toronto this year with an OPS+* of 122. Looking at Baseball Reference's batting leaderboards for this season, that's the 30th-highest OPS+ in the entire AL and the second-highest on the Jays (behind only Adam Lind). Even more impressive is when you compare Rolen's OPS+ to that of other third basemen; only Michael Young (137), Alex Rodriguez (135) and Evan Longoria (127) rank ahead of Rolen among third basemen (Kevin Youkilis is also ahead of Rolen with an OPS+ of 145, but he's only played 29 games at third this year and has played 59 games at first base, so he doesn't really count). Thus, he's having a pretty incredible year offensively. Part of that's because of his BABIP (batting average on balls in play) of .347, which likely isn't sustainable. However, Rolen's offence isn't necessarily an outlier, though. His numbers this year are above what he's done in his last couple of seasons, but slightly below his career average of .280/.370/.500 with an OPS+ of 124.

*For those unfamiliar with it, OPS+ basically takes OPS (on-base plus slugging) and adjusts it for park, league and era factors. More details can be found here. It's a convenient way to compare different players' batting skills. 100 is generally considered to be league average.

Yet, Rolen's bat is often mentioned behind his glove, and he's been very good in the field as well. John Dewan's Fielding Bible plus/minus system (basically, adding points for making plays others at the position miss and taking away points for missing plays others at the position make) ranked Rolen as the fifth-best third baseman in all of baseball from 2006-2008 with an impressive +47 rating. He made plenty of spectacular stops, as this Top 10 list from Ian Hunter over at Blue Jay Hunter showcases, but he was also good at making difficult plays look easy. The plus/minus stats for this year aren't out yet, but FanGraphs' fielding stats have him taking a bit of a step back; his fielding numbers are still very good, though. Rolen will be difficult to replace, both at the plate and in the field. Some will argue that he's due to regress, as he is 34, but his production this year is a considerable improvement over last year. He'll likely be very good for at least this year and the next, and perhaps even longer.

Now, let's consider what the Jays received in return from the Reds. They got third baseman Edwin Encarnacion and pitchers Josh Roenicke and Zach Stewart. Encarnacion is much less of a threat at the plate than Rolen; he's hitting .209/.333/.374 this year, with an OPS+ of 85. Now, that is slightly less than his career averages of .262/.345/.449 and an OPS+ of 102, but even those numbers aren't incredibly good. For a great defensive third baseman, his career numbers would pass muster, though.

Unfortunately, Encarnacion is anything but. He has an Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR, explained here) of -6 and a UZR/150 (UZR per 150 defensive games, so basically averaged over a season) of -23.1 this year. That's considerably worse than his career UZR/150 of -12.1, which is bad enough on its own. By comparison, Rolen has a UZR of 4.8 so far this year and a UZR/150 of 7.9, and his career UZR/150 is 7.9. Encarnacion's career stats are lacking both at the plate and in the field, and he appears to be getting worse, not better, in both areas. Also, he's already 26 and is in his fifth season in the majors, so it doesn't seem too likely that he'll suddenly morph into an amazing player. Maybe a change of scenery will do him good, maybe it won't.

In my mind, the Jays would be better off going with Jose Bautista at third; he's hitting .243/.365/.322 this year with an OPS+ of 91. That's a bit better than Encarnacion, especially in the area of on-base percentage, and the Jays could use a guy who gets on base more than another power hitter with on-base issues. Moreover, Bautista has a UZR of 1.2 and a UZR/150 of 11.6 in 139 innings at third this year; that's even better than what Rolen has offered in the field this year, at least by that measurement.

Now, if Rolen was moved to make way for Bautista, this trade makes much more sense. It doesn't sound like that's the case, though, given the limited use of Bautista so far this year despite promising signs. Moreover, chief moron-in-charge general manager J.P. Ricciardi has already spoken glowingly about Encarnacion, saying "We got a younger player at third base with a little bit more power." I don't quite get how moving from Rolen's .461 slugging percentage (.500 career) to Encarnacion's .374 (.449 career) is an upgrade. However, Ricciardi is the man who famously said "They're not lies if we know the truth" after misleading the Toronto media about an injury to B.J. Ryan, so this is positively logical by comparison.

Let's take a look at the other players involved in the trade. Roenicke and Stewart both have some potential, and Stewart's perhaps the key player; he's been highly touted by plenty of commentators and analysts for his performance in the minors, and he's only 22. Roenicke is 26 and has started to make his mark as a reliever this year (a 2.70 ERA, 1.28 WHIP (walks plus hits per inning pitched) and a 164 ERA+ (ERA adjusted for park and league factors) in 13.1 innnings this year in the majors). Stewart has a combined ERA of 1.52 and a WHIP of 1.28 in 124 innings over the past two seasons in the minors, and many of those innings came at the AA and AAA levels. Those numbers are certainly impressive and renowned ESPN analyst Keith Law is high on both pitchers, according to Bergkamp over at Drunk Jays Fans, so they could turn into something good. We'll have to see how they do as time goes on.

Thus, this trade makes some sense from a time-independent baseball perspective. Encarnacion is relatively useless, but he could improve. This could also clear the way for Bautista. The pitchers have a lot of potential, and even though Rolen was having an amazing year, he wasn't going to be productive forever.

From a time-dependent perspective, though, it hurts. The team's been telling everyone for years that they'd make a big push in 2010, and it certainly seemed very plausible considering the return of Shaun Marcum and Jesse Litsch and the likely promotion of Travis Snider. That was the main strategy they were using to keep all of us Jays fans interested throughout the last couple of poor years, and it worked for a while.

The first cracks in the facade came with the discussions of trading Roy Halladay, though, as that's clearly not a move to make if you're trying to contend. That didn't happen, but it wasn't for lack of trying. However, if you listen to Ricciardi's comments in Bruce Arthur's National Post column, the 2010 plan is still on: "'If we're going to keep Doc here, which we want, then to take away the other parts that are going to help us be a good club going forward would have been counterproductive,' Ricciardi reasoned Friday."

That's what Jays' fans want to hear, but the trade of Rolen demonstrates that it's patently false. If this team's planning to contend next year, they need a good third baseman. Encarnacion certainly isn't that guy and Bautista probably isn't. No, Rolen was moved to save $5.25 million and to pick up prospects who may someday contribute. Drew Fairservice from Ghostrunner on First accurately called it "a cold-blooded salary dump that has taken the best third baseman of his generation out of town." That's not the move of a team trying to contend, it's the move of a team rebuilding for the future, regardless of what comments are coming out of Ricciardi's mouth. Also, I find it a little hard to buy the "personal reasons" line he used, especially considering how similar it is to the comments he made to justify trading Troy Glaus for Rolen back in 2008.

However, failing to get deals done for Halladay and other veterans such as Marco Scutaro and Lyle Overbay demonstrates that the Jays aren't wholly committed to this rebuilding plan. It's as I commented Friday on Twitter: they can't even figure out how to hold a fire sale properly. Going for it next season and acquiring extra players in the offseason is risky, but could offer a massive payoff. Personally, it's the strategy I favoured, which is why I would have loved to see them keep both Halladay and Rolen. Dealing the veterans now and going into a full-fledged rebuilding campaign is safer and could let the team compete four or five years in the future. The middle road, of keeping some veteran talent but not making the necessary moves to give them a chance to win, accomplishes nothing. Unfortunately, it's become the standard one in Toronto, and that's why the likes of Arthur and Yahoo! Sports columnist Jeff Passan are calling for Ricciardi's head on a silver platter. Let me quote a bit from them:

Arthur: "If this team is loading up for 2010, it's happening at Wal-Mart.

And you still have Ricciardi. Maybe the kids coming back in the Rolen deal turn into something, and maybe this team has some better building blocks, and blah blah blah. We've heard it all before. Nobody buys what J.P. is selling anymore, whether it's his plan for the future or the best pitcher in baseball.

This should be the beginning, at long last, of the end. This should be the last act of J.P. Ricciardi's overlong, acrimonious, gaffe-prone and soul-deadening reign as the man in charge of the Toronto Blue Jays. We've seen the man behind the curtain. He's exactly who we thought he was."

Passan: "There is a fundamental and simple truth to success in the world of commodities: sell high.

Usually, it’s a guessing game. Which makes the case of J.P. Ricciardi and his absolute murdering of the Roy Halladay(notes) trade market that much more egregious. He didn’t have to speculate. He knew the value of Halladay would never be higher than it was for the past three weeks. He understood that the second the clock hit 4 p.m. ET, he would be staring at his very own Black Friday.

And do you know what he did, the Toronto Blue Jays general manager who has overseen a truly mediocre (616-619) team for nearly a decade and lavished $126 million on the underachieving Vernon Wells(notes)? Guess how he handled his chance to remake a franchise that in the cutthroat American League East dances the dance of inconsequence year after year?

He bungled the whole thing. He held when every iota of logic oozed sell. If that alone isn’t a fireable offense – and it is – surely combined with the Blue Jays’ performance and the Wells contract has Ricciardi earned his way to unemployment."

Jeff Blair of The Globe and Mail seems to have taken issue with my "fire sale" comment in the opening bit of his piece, but he's still quite critical of Ricciardi's actions as well. He does make the valid point that the Jays may still be able to get a good bit for Halladay in the offseason, as more teams may feel they have a shot of contending then, but in my mind, only having him for one season instead of two potential playoff runs will cancel that out. Like the others, Blair seems rather unimpressed with the Jays' long journey to the middle under Ricciardi. As he concludes, "Nothing that happened yesterday will remove the doubts lingering over this team – that they have just slightly interested ownership and no direction, bouncing from crisis to crisis while awaiting a 2010 payroll that will likely be right in the middle of the major-league scale. Welcome to life in baseball’s middle class. Sucks to be us, doesn’t it?"

And that lack of direction is the crux of it, for me. This is perhaps, but only perhaps a defensible baseball move, but even that's only if it's accompanied by the logical accompanying moves. It hasn't been, and that's a problem. Moreover, it has instead been accompanied by a bodyguard of conflicting nonsensical moves and explanations from Ricciardi, and that's an even bigger problem. His five-year-plans have turned into eight years of dithering. I was never really confident in his leadership, but I've now lost what faith I once had. I'll follow this up later with a post about the way forward for the Jays, but for now, it's enough to say that Ricciardi must go, and the sooner, the better. I'm not sure of the ideal candidate to replace him at the moment, but I'd take almost anyone over Ricciardi at this point. At least they'd be likely to have a plan.

A requiem for the Jays

Today's loss to the Tampa Bay Rays (47-39) dropped the Toronto Blue Jays (43-44) below the .500 mark for the first time this season, which, sadly, is probably a more accurate reflection of this team's ability than their 22-12 start that gave them the best record in the American League [Jerry Crasnick, ESPN.com]. That early start was largely piled up against weaker opponents, and was also aided by some incredible performances from unlikely pitching stars. Since then, the Jays have fallen back to earth.

This still isn't a bad team, though. The Jays aren't the best team in baseball by a long shot, but they are a bit unlucky and have a knack of losing close games by a run or two, as this most recent sweep by Tampa Bay has demonstrated; the Jays fell 3-1, 10-9 and 3-2 in a series of very winnable games that dramatically hurt their record and their playoff chances. Their Pythagorean win expectation (which suggests what a team's record should be based on runs scored and allowed) was at 46-40 after yesterday's game, not a huge difference in terms of pure games, but one that would have them right behind Tampa Bay and theoretically in contention for at least a wild-card playoff berth. Instead, the Jays have put up plenty of runs in blowout wins, but not enough in the close games. The playoffs would still be a long shot if their record sat at 46-40, but a bit of luck as to which games runs showed up in would make things seem a bit more rosy than the current gloomy atmosphere.

When you consider that the pitching rotation has been held together with dreams and duct tape this year, even a 43-44 record is impressive. Soon after the start of the year, four of last year's five regular starters were out of commission, with A.J. Burnett lost to the Yankees in free agency and Dustin McGowan, Shaun Marcum and Jesse Litsch all likely out for the season thanks to injury. The lone survivor was the staff ace, Roy Halladay, who has been outstanding as usual this year (2.79 ERA, 154 ERA+, 10-3 record), but has faced minor injury problems of his own and missed a few games. Moreover, he also may not be around for long, if general manager J.P. Ricciardi's claims about listening to trade offers for him [Jeff Blair, The Globe and Mail] are to be believed. Pitchers Ricky Romero and Scott Richmond have stepped up admirably (145 and 117 ERA+ respectively), and Brian Tallet and Brett Cecil have been okay, but it's awfully difficult to contend in the toughest division in baseball with a pitching staff composed of spare parts. The relief side's been impressive as well, particularly closer Scott Downs (213 ERA+), but also Jason Frasor and Shawn Camp (168 and 113 ERA+ respectively).

The position players have been even better. Aaron Hill is having a season at second base that would put Roberto Alomar to shame, hitting .298/.336/.496 with 20 HR and 59 RBI and making highlight-reel plays in the field. Marco Scutaro is lighting it up at shortstop and batting .283/.382/.413, while Scott Rolen's hitting .330/.390/.486 and Lyle Overbay's batting .254/.375/.469. The lineup's dragged down a bit by the likes of Alex Rios and Vernon Wells and the odd decision to keep using Raul Chavez as a part-time catcher; Chavez has a good arm and is decent defensively, but he has the bizarre statistic of having a batting average exactly equal to his on-base percentage (both .262); he hasn't drawn a single walk in 85 plate appearances. Still, this is a strong batting lineup; Toronto's team OPS+ of 104 is fourth-best in the American League, and their team OBP of .340 is seventh-best.

In any case, this season is likely a lost cause. It would be tremendously difficult to come back even into the wild-card race at this point in time, particularly considering the strength of the Jays' own division. Not all is lost, though, and that's why the recent rumours about the Halliday trade strike me as odd. Halliday is still locked up for the next year, and keeping him around would give the Jays a plethora of pitching talent; Litsch and Marcum are likely to be back, McGowan may be back as well, and Romero and Richmond are also in the mix for the rotation. Tallet could return to the bullpen, perhaps joined by Cecil, and the Jays would have one of the better pitching staffs in the league. Moreover, if their hitters can keep up their production from this year and perhaps even underacheivers like Wells and Rios can be swapped out for prospects like Travis Snider or free agents, this team could be a powerhouse that could compete for the division title.

The window of opportunity is limited, though. With the strength of the AL East, it's very difficult to compete with Boston and New York year-in and year-out, especially when your attendance numbers are among the worst in the league. Toronto fans aren't going to the ballpark in numbers any more, and it's difficult to blame them; although it's still a lot of fun to go catch a game, the team hasn't been in contention for what feels like forever. That leaves ownership with a tough decision to make. They could cut payroll to a lower level and trade away Toronto's established assets for prospects, hoping to contend down the road, but that's likely to hurt attendance even more and isn't any guarantee of success.

The other option is to roll the dice. Keep Halladay for now and be active in the off-season, either via trading prospects for established players or signing players in free agency to buttress the roster. Try to resign him to a long-term deal before the next season starts, or hope that success will be enough motivation to convince him to come back. Spend big for a year or two and go for broke; a winning team will produce buzz, increase attendance and pay off the cost of the acquisitions, especially if they make the playoffs.

The status quo isn't particularly helpful, as the Jays are good enough to raise hopes and avoid high draft picks, but bad enough not to come close to the playoffs. To me, there's little point in trying to blow the roster up and start from scratch when the team is potentially so close. In my mind, the better option is to try and win within the next couple of seasons, when the team's still close to the top. The requiem for this season has been written, but there's still a lot of hope for the future.

TSN2 deal is done

Well, Rogers Cable finally came to an agreement [Fadoo.ca] to carry TSN2 shortly before Jaypocalypse Now would have occured next week when the Jays faced the Red Sox in games only available on TSN2 [Neate Sager, Out of Left Field]. No specifics have been released yet, but it's a good bet that Rogers caved in the end; TSN had all the leverage in this one thanks to their agreements with every other cable/satellite provider (which demonstrated that their terms can't have been all that unreasonable). Someone at Rogers' baseball division ultimately sold the cable side for 30 pieces of silver with the decision to put Jays-Red Sox on TSN2, as the great Chris Zelkovich of the Toronto Star noted earlier this week on his blog:

"A deal has to be coming because, if it isn't, Rogers call-centre employees will have to show up for work that day with bulletproof vests and industrial-strength earplugs as they try to explain to angry Jays fans that they can watch the game only by switching to Bell TV or Star Choice."

Exactly. You can't have a company-owned asset only visible on a channel the company refuses to carry for what seem like highly spurious reasons (namely, not wanting more competition to hurt the ailing Rogers Sportsnet). TSN2 has proven to be a legitimate channel and carries a lot of good stuff, so this should have happened much earlier, but the Jays-Sox deal was the final straw that eliminated the cable division's remaining leverage. It's a shame for Rogers subscribers that it took the company so long to come to their senses, as they've already missed a lot of good stuff (notably Raptors games and NBA playoff games), but better late than never. In the end, this will allow Canadians to watch more sports if they want to shell out the extra cash for TSN2, and that's a good thing in my mind. However, it's still disappointing that Rogers felt they could walk all over their subscribers in a misguided battle to try and make Sportsnet more relevant. It's unfortunate that it took so long to work out a deal, but at last it's finished.

Links of the Day: The collection

Well, I'm back from a crazy weekend of softball: played seven games over two days, and my trademark intensity meant that I left Revelstoke sore all over, with most of the skin removed from elbows and knees from various diving catches and slides, and bruised ribs, broken sunglasses and a black eye from a head-first dive into an outfield fence (I did catch the ball, though, so it was all worth it). The rest of the weekend was okay, but the frequent downpours made camping a bit less enjoyable, and the massive traffic jam we got stuck in on the way home certainly wasn't a great experience.

Anyway, I'm back to the grind of the office and back to blogging in my spare time. Original posts should resume late tonight or early tomorrow, but to fill the gap, I figured I'd present another special edition of the Links of the Day with the other sports writing I've been doing (for anyone who cares). Here it is:

- A piece on Nikki Wright, a striker for the Vancouver Whitecaps' prospects squad who will be suiting up for Langley's Trinity Western University this fall [Langley Times, August 7].
- A profile on Langley-based chiropractor Dr. Gerry Ramogida, who's in Beijing for the Olympics to work with the Canadian Olympic team (and specifically track athletes, including 400m world champion Tyler Christopher) [Langley Times, August 5].
- Why I'm not quite sold on the new Queen's men's soccer coach yet [Out of Left Field, August 7].
- An article on Myrte Schon, a volleyball player with the Fraser Valley Volleyball Club, who played for Team BC at the 2008 National Team Challenge Cup in Calgary, travelled to Brazil with her club and earned bronze at the club nationals in Ottawa earlier this year [Langley Times, August 9].
- A story on Brandon Kaye, the half-brother of Blue Jays' pitcher Scott Richmond, who played for Team Canada in this summer's World University Baseball championships [Langley Times, August 2].
- A piece on Langley midget football coach Dana Matheson, who won back-to-back Vanier Cups with the St. Mary's Huskies [Langley Times, August 7].
- A profile on naturopathic doctor Peter Bennett, who also is in Beijing to work with the Canadian track and field team [Langley Times, August 9].
- A piece on the Canadian women's first soccer match against Argentina [Out of Left Field, August 5].

Baseball: Langley prospects blaze trail to the majors

Photo: Brett Lawrie batting for the Canadian junior team in Mexico (Photo from the Langley Blaze website).

Many of the eyes of the baseball world are on my neighbourhood these days, mostly due to the exceptional baseball talent cropping up in its backyard. The key player is phenom Brett Lawrie of the Langley Blaze, who has been high on many people's lists for a long time. Bob Elliott, the great baseball columnist for Sun Media, has had him as the top-rated Canadian prospect since at least April, and wrote an excellent piece on the weekend about how fast Lawrie's stock has been rising. The scouts Elliott quotes offer some very significant praise:

"'He hits the ball with more authority than Justin Morneau in his draft year,' one scout said.
'He's the best high school hitter I've ever seen from Canada,' said another."

That's just the beginning. Consider this passage from later in the article:

"The highlight was a doubleheader sweep of the Seattle Mariners rookie-class Dominican summer league team in which Lawrie hit five homers.
The right-handed hitter had homered three times when a scout said jokingly: 'Well, he hit the ball out to left and centre, but if he was any good he'd be able to it out to right, too.' Two pitches later ... home run to right field.
Asked what he was going to put on his report, the scout answered: 'I'm going to compare him with Babe Ruth ... but I might be a tad light.'
There is not a Ruth in this year's draft. There is only one Lawrie.
'He's such a polished hitter,' said the scouting director of one club which has Lawrie in the mix. 'We go into Ohio or Pennsylvania and see a high school hitter have a great day but the pitcher is throwing 82 m.p.h. We saw Lawrie in Arizona, in Florida and now in the Dominican. He's hitting bombs off second-year pros.'"

There's a key point in there. One of the more interesting but sometimes overlooked points from Michael Lewis' famous book Moneyball (soon to be reviewed in this space) is how Billy Beane and the Oakland A's were big on drafting college players instead of high-school players because they were less of a gamble. Their plan was they could evaluate players more effectively after they had an extensive track record playing against the high-calibre opposition in college than they could from the limited stats and vastly differing quality of competition available in high-school leagues. As I see it, the advantage with this is more of the players you select will work out in the long run: the disadvantage is you're likely to miss out on the absolute cream of the crop, as it's unlikely they'll go unselected out of high school and take the college route. The advantage of Canadian high-schoolers from the Vancouver area is they offer the best of both worlds: they have the chance to compete in a high-quality league where stats actually mean something (the British Columbia Premier Baseball League, spotlighted in Matthew Sekeres' excellent Globe feature this past weekend), but they also haven't been passed over in a previous draft.

Consider this excerpt from Sekeres' piece.

"Major League Baseball's first-year player draft is less than two weeks away and most of the reports have already been filed. In a couple of weeks, the scouts will return to size up British Columbia's crop of 2009 draft-eligible players, who in some cases are just 16.
So goes the cycle of the best amateur baseball league in the country, and a loop that is changing the face of player development in Canada.
Almost a decade after B.C.'s amateur baseball revolution, the Premier League, for players 16 to 18, is a can't-miss stop for professional scouts and college coaches. Since a formal merger between barnstorming clubs on Vancouver Island and the Lower Mainland in 1999, the league has averaged about seven drafted players a year. Mixed among them are some world-class talents.
'It's certainly the standard in the country,' said Greg Hamilton, the director of national teams for Baseball Canada. 'It brings together the vast majority of talent in one league and matches them with the top coaches.'
From a developmental perspective, the 11-team league measures up to, and beyond, high-school baseball south of the border and it is designed to graduate players into U.S. collegiate ranks. The very best might immediately sign with major-league clubs.
'Normally, the top players play down to the lower players,' said Walt Burrows, the Canadian supervisor for MLB's scouting bureau. 'In their league, it's the opposite. So not only is it a pretty good brand of baseball, but the elite players are challenged. That's the difference between their league and any other league in the country.' ... Today, almost every BCPBL game is a showcase, featuring players worthy of being drafted or of receiving athletic scholarships. The quantity, and quality, of Canadians in the major leagues is on an upswing, and those who monitored the Premier League say it is one of the driving forces behind the trend."

That sounds pretty good to me. It's not just all talk, either: the list of players that have come out of this league is very impressive, including Victoria Mariners' outfielder Rich Harden (now a star pitcher with the Oakland A's), first baseman Justin Morneau and pitcher Jeff Francis of the North Delta Blue Jays (now with the Minnesota Twins and Colorado Rockies respectively), and the highest-drafted Canadian ever, pitcher Adam Loewen of the Whalley Chiefs.

(Interesting sidebar: I actually briefly went to high school with Loewen, who was drafted fourth overall by Baltimore in 2002. He finished Grade 12 at Fraser Valley Christian High that year, the same year I completed Grade Eight.)

Another impressive thing about this league is the opportunities its players have to compete against high-calibre outside competition. Before three of the top Blaze prospects (Lawrie, pitcher Stosh Wawrzasek and outfielder Carter Morrison, who Elliott has ranked fourth and 16th respectively on his most recent list of Canadian prospects) joined the Canadian national junior team for a series against major league clubs' Dominican teams, their club went to Arizona for spring training to take on some pro minor league teams. Check out this piece from my Langley Times colleague Gary Ahuja for more on that trip and the season prospects for the Blaze.

The national junior team also offers some great opportunities for the top Canadian ballplayers, and they're certainly holding their own against tough competition. The team went 7-1 overall against the major-league clubs' Dominican affiliates. All the Langley prospects did well for themselves: Morrison went 3 for 5 with a home run, double and five RBIs in the latest game, Wawrzasek threw six innings over two games with seven strikeouts while allowing only two runs, and Lawrie hit an amazing .500 (17 for 34) during the series with eight home runs. Overall against pro teams this spring, he hit .700 with 14 extra-base hits. As Sekeres writes, his best performance was against the Mariners' affiliate, where he hit an unprecedented five home runs (to all fields) in one day during a doubleheader.

Lawrie probably helped his stock the most with those exhibition trips, but it's been rising faster than technology stocks during the late nineties. On Elliott's April 13 ratings, Lawrie was listed as the top Canadian prospect, but he was rated only 135th on the Perfect Game combined list (high school and college) and only 143rd on Baseball America's top-300 high school prospects list. By April 28, Elliott had him as a potential second-rounder, but others were slower to jump on board: Richard Griffin had him as a third-rounder at best as recently as May 21. The original Baseball America and Perfect Game ratings on him were still in force by May 8, but he'd jumped to 37th in Baseball American's rankings by May 24th. He then quickly rose to 16th, and he's now being trumpeted as at least a mid-first round pick by Sekeres, a possible top-15 selection by Baseball Digest Daily, and even possibly as high as 10th overall by Elliott. Jeff Blair discussed him on Prime Time Sports yesterday and said it would be interesting to see what happens if the Jays have the opportunity to take him with the 16th pick, but he doesn't expect that to occur. "The buzz you're hearing is he won't be available when the Jays pick," he said.

The last word on Lawrie should appropriately go to Elliott:

"Lawrie is a fast-moving stock on the Baseball America top 100 list, going from 56th to 37th to 16th in the past three weeks.
Then came the trip to the Dominican where Lawrie and his pals knocked down fences beating Yankees farmhands 11-3, sweeping the Mariners 8-5 and 14-5, losing 8-7 in the ninth to the Angels, beating the Rangers 8-7, knocking off the Twins 7-1 and humbling the Blue Jays 21-5.
'A bunch of high school kids from Canada laying beatings like that on pros. They almost won every game,' another scout said. 'I'm sure by now they are telling stories on the island, the kid is going to be a legend.'"

This guy could really be special, and his Langley teammates aren't too shoddy, either.

Key links:
- Langley Times articles on Lawrie, Wawrzasek and Morrison by Gary Ahuja.
- Matthew Sekeres' Globe feature on the Premier League.
- Elliott's latest column on Lawrie.
- Neate had some thoughts on Lawrie in his latest baseball post.

Happy birthday, Big Hurt!

In unbelievably perfect timing, Frank "The Big Hurt" Thomas turns 40 today, and his Oakland Athletics take on the Toronto Blue Jays this evening. Everyone remember how shabbily he was treated by the Jays' organization, including being benched for the supposed crime of not producing in April (which probably had more to do with his contract, despite the denials by J.P. Ricciardi, who is known to be as truthful as Clay Bennett)? Well, I didn't like the move then, and wrote that I thought it might weaken the team this season for purely penny-pinching reasons. Also, the logic is somewhat stupid, as the Jays are now paying Thomas almost $8 million this year to tear up the league for Oakland, who got him for the bargain-basement price of $337,000.

Anyways, let's look at some stats to examine the impact of the move. As I pointed out in my post on Thomas' release, April had always been his worst month, and he'd always come around. Before leaving the Jays, he went .167/.306/.333 (average/on-base percentage/slugging for the non-sabermetrically inclined) in 60 at-bats over 16 games. With Oakland, he's hit .315/.415/.506 in 89 at-bats over 27 games. His OPS+ has jumped from a lousy 77 to an awesome 161. In fact, he's on an even hotter streak right now, hitting .389/.450/.722 in his last five games (all the usual warnings about small sample size apply, but the point is, he's clobbering the ball). That, combined with his well-known propensity for proving general managers wrong about him (see Williams, Kenny), suggests that the Jays may be in for some Hurtin' tonight.

Now, how about those Jays? Well, they released Frank the Tank on April 20. They won 5-3 against Detroit later that day, but then lost six in a row. Three of those losses were to the Tampa Bay Rays, who are currently leading the AL East with a 31-20 record, but the other three came against Detroit and Kansas City, who are tied for last in the AL Central with identical 21-30 records). The Jays pulled off one win against the Royals on April 27, but then lost 1-0 and 2-1 to the Red Sox to end the month by wasting a couple of great pitching performances (what else is new?). Ironically, the Big Hurt played better against the Red Sox than anyone else he faced with the Jays this year, putting up two homers and eight RBIs in the season-opening series. With him in the lineup, that could mean a couple of extra wins instead of losses against the team most expect to win the AL East, which could be huge down the road.

The Jays' record improved a bit in May, but their hitting still wasn't great. As a team, they've hit .250/.338/.360 this month. By contrast, Thomas hit .348 /.429/.561 in May. Wouldn't it be nice to have him putting up those numbers for Toronto, instead of paying him almost $8 million to bat for the A's? Billy Beane must be rubbing his hands with glee at the moment.

Not convinced yet? Let's look at the Jays' replacements for Thomas at DH, Matt Stairs and Shannon Stewart. In 86 at-bats at the DH position, Stairs has hit .267/.337/.407 with three home runs, eight walks and 19 strikeouts. Now, those are acceptable numbers, and I love Matt Stairs, but I would much rather have him as a platoon outfielder and have Thomas cranking the ball from the DH slot. His production also declined in May, hitting .238/.314/.429 as opposed to the .315/.354/.452 he put up in April. There's also a good reason he's intended as a platoon guy against right-handed pitchers: he's .301/.356 /.480 against them this year, but just a pitiful .077/.143/.077 against lefties. Granted, that's in a small sample size of 13 AB in 9 games, but you don't want this guy hitting against lefties, which makes him a bad choice as an everyday DH. Career, he's .237/.330/.415 against LHP and a much better .274/.365/.503 against RHP.

Shannon Stewart, the other guy to take a fair number of reps at DH, has been abysmal (and Shannon Stewart should never be a DH in the first place). In the admittedly small sample size of 19 AB, he's .263/.364/.263. That's a nice OBP, but his lack of power from that slot is brutal.

The fun isn't complete yet. Removing Thomas and using Stairs/Stewart as a DH meant that other guys had to be brought in to fill the left field slot. Adam Lind was given an unacceptably brief trial, which further erodes the supposed logic behind getting rid of Thomas. It might (emphasis on the might) have been a defensible move if he was released to pave the way for a young, promising prospect in Lind, but that clearly wasn't the case. Instead, the Jays got Brad Wilkerson, who was hitting so poorly that he got released by the Seattle Mariners, the 24th-worst hitting team in baseball, and Kevin Mench, who wasn't even in the majors this year. Wilkerson hit .232/.348/.304 in Seattle this year in 56 at-bats, and you can't even argue that it was that much of a down year for him: that's better than his last two seasons, where he put up the pretty horrendous lines of .234/.319/.467 and .222/.306/.422 with the Texas Rangers. Really? A "Moneyball" team wants a guy who had a .306 OBP last season? Apparently, that makes him supremely qualified to be a leadoff hitter for the Jays. Since he got to Toronto, he's been even worse, hitting an appalling .179/.242/.304 in 56 at-bats and striking out 15 times while collecting only 5 walks (that would be a 3:1 strikeout to walk ratio, for those of you keeping score). His career numbers are a little better (.248/.352/.445), but most of that's behind some solid early years with the Expos, and he's gone downhill ever since he left Montreal.

Mench isn't much better. Career, he's .269/.325/.462, which is okay, but nothing special. Last year with Milwaukee, he hit .267/.305/.441. Hmm... another guy with a terrible OBP to add to Eckstein, Wilkerson and the like. Maybe J.P.'s decided to abandon Moneyball in favour of grit and scrappiness? Anyways, he too has been even worse in Toronto, going an atrocious .136/.208/.136 in the admittedly small sample size of 22 at-bats.

So, here's the executive summary. Thomas was released, and promptly signed with Oakland, forcing the Jays to pay him almost $8 million to play for another team. In doing so, he's hit .315/.415/.506 in 89 at-bats over 27 games. His main replacements at DH, Stairs and Stewart, have hit .267/.337/.407 and .263/.364/.263 out of that slot. The guys brought in to play left field for them, Wilkerson and Mench, have hit .179/.242/.304 and .136/.208/.136 respectively. Does getting rid of Frank the Tank look like a bad idea yet?

Besides all the previous logic, axing Hurt was a classless move from a classless organization. The man has shown he can still produce, and he has always been a slow starter, so releasing him in April was absolutely brainless. It would have been nice to let him finish out his career where he hit his 500th homer, and Lord knows the Jays could use his hitting. Thomas has always been a classy guy, and he really is one of the best hitters of all time (read this excellent Andy Behrens piece from a couple of years ago if you're not convinced). Moreover, in an age of steroid-fueled skepticism, Thomas was the one slugger everyone knew to be clean: in fact, he was arguing against the 'roids back in 1995, long before most people had any idea what was going on. He was also the only player to voluntarily talk to George Mitchell for his report on steroid use in baseball, which deserves a thumbs-up of its own. He's a feel-good story in a sport where they've become exceedingly rare, and he also has his name on possibly the best baseball game ever. I'm not sufficiently jaded to cheer against the Jays tonight, but as a birthday present, I hope Thomas goes something like 4 for 4 and drives in all the Oakland runs in a 7-6 loss. It would be nice to see him wipe that godawful smirk off J.P. Ricciardi's face.

Related:
- ESPN The Magazine's fantastic birthday ode to Thomas
- Andy Behrens' 2006 ESPN Page 2 feature on the Big Hurt's greatness.
- An interesting win-share analysis of Ricciardi's tenure as Blue Jays' GM, which suggests that releasing Thomas isn't his only bad move: according to this, he's cost the team 91 wins since he came on board.


Some updates, 11:51 P.M. ET, May 27:
- AthleticsNation has a great interview with Billy Beane where they discuss this situation. Here's some of Beane's quotes:

"We’re always going to look for opportunities. If we find something that we perceive as a great value, we’re going to jump at it. You always try to do both. It’s not a zero sum game where you’re either this or that. You can accomplish this while still trying to do that. You can try to get young players and rebuild and create a good situation and also try to be competitive. Quite frankly, Frank was such a positive influence when he was here. The thing I like about having Frank around the younger players is how he prepares himself. He prepares himself similar to how Barry Zito used to prepare himself to pitch in a game. That’s good for young guys to watch. And I have such a soft spot for Frank. He had such a great year (when he was here). And you can’t beat the price for a guy who brings all he does. ... Our history suggests that if you can make incremental improvements, you should. Yeah, it’s hard to imagine not being interested in Frank." (emphases mine).

So, Thomas is seen by at least one GM (and one of the best in baseball, in my opinion) as a good clubhouse influence (contrary to what J.P. and co. would have you believe) and an incredible bargain. That sure makes the Jays' handling of this look even better.

- A bit of a discussion on Thomas over at the always-excellent Drunk Jays Fans. Dustin Parkes made a good point on Mench: he was brought in specifically to hit LHP, and he's been pretty good at it over his career (.302/.358/.553) He isn't great against RHP though (.254/.310/.419), and many of his better seasons were earlier in his career. There's still hope for him though, unlike Wilkerson.

Whitecaps to push for MLS status?

Some interesting news came out today. The Vancouver Whitecaps, who have been trying for ages to give the city a privately-funded new showcase stadium (supposed to be paid for entirely by Vancouver multi-millionare Greg Kerfoot, the team's owner who has been a key financial backer of the growth of soccer in Canada) with little success, may have finally made the breakthrough needed on a stadium of suitable size to support their Major League Soccer ambitions. However, the potential breakthrough has come from an unexpected direction that may cause as many problems as it creates. According to local radio station CKNW, both the Whitecaps and Lions will be represented tomorrow morning at a news conference called by B.C. Premier Gordon Campbell, which is believed to be on the subject of a new retractable roof for B.C. Place. The Whitecaps told CKNW last week that they'd consider playing in B.C. Place with the new roof if it helped their chances of landing an MLS franchise.

On the face of it, this seems like it may be a problematic proposition for the Whitecaps. B.C. Place was opened in 1983, and it's appeared to show its age recently, most notably when the roof collapsed in January 2007. It also goes against the soccer-specific stadium model so desired by MLS. However, the idea makes a lot more sense once you consider comments from Whitecaps president Bob Lenarduzzi in a April 30 Vancouver Province article by Jim Jamieson.

"The club is still 100 per cent committed to building a soccer-specific, natural grass stadium on the Vancouver waterfront, but would consider B.C. Place as a temporary venue if major renos are announced shortly as expected," Jamieson writes. 'Our priority is still the waterfront stadium, but given that it's taking as long as it has, we need to have alternatives if the opportunity to move to a higher level is available,' said Lenarduzzi. 'It would be a short-term solution, as we're looking at the waterfront stadium being our permanent solution but of course we're mired in that process right now.'

Now, that makes a lot of sense. The key goal here is for Vancouver to get into MLS, and the window is rapidly closing. MLS has said it will cap expansion at 18 teams. There are currently 14 teams, and two more franchises have already been approved (Seattle next year and Philadelphia in 2010). The Montreal Impact already have a bid on the table, backed by their brand-new natural-grass Saputo Stadium, and St. Louis is apparently applying as well. Given the rapidly expanding popularity of MLS, it's hard to believe that these are the only other cities interested. If both those clubs make it in and the league sticks to its previous comments, Vancouver would be on the outside looking in. Time is clearly of the essence, so a move to a newly-reinvigorated B.C. Place (which MLS has deemed acceptable as long as there's a long-term plan for a soccer-specific stadium) would dramatically boost the team's
chances of cracking the exclusive MLS club.

B.C. Place also can handle soccer. It played host to the old NASL Whitecaps for several years, and staged the last Soccer Bowl before the league folded. More recently, 48,172 soccer fans packed the joint for last November's clash between the Whitecaps and David Beckham's L.A. Galaxy. It isn't the ideal outdoor stadium the Whitecaps have been dreaming of, but with a new roof, it would make a great interim venue until the new stadium gets finished. The capacity's also a tremendous advantage: far better than the 6,868 seats in Swangard Stadium (the Caps' current home) or even the 20,500 at TFC's BMO Field. If the Whitecaps make it into MLS, there will be likely be tremendous ticket demand similar to what happened with TFC. The Vancouver area has long been very supportive of top-quality soccer, and the old NASL team used to regularly sell out Empire Stadium (32,000 capacity). With B.C. Place, fans wouldn't have to sell their soul for a ticket the way you have to for a TFC game at BMO Field.

There are other alternatives coming out of the woodwork as well for the long-term stadium solution, which should put some pressure on the Vancouver bureaucrats who have dithered for five years over accepting a free stadium (ironic that this is happening just up I-5 from where a team is about to be stolen due to the lack of a publicly-funded stadium). One compelling one is the idea of building a new stadium in the suburbs out in Surrey, just off the SkyTrain rapid-transit line, floated by my esteemed father a while ago and promptly followed up on by the Vancouver Province with a story by Kent Spencer (which included Surrey Mayor Dianne Watts offering support for the proposal) and an editorial backing the idea. A downtown stadium would be more desirable, but Surrey is a viable alternative (especially due to the easy access provided by transit to the western part of Surrey, where the stadium would likely be located), and its inclusion in the mix should give Vancouver council a little pressure to hurry up on the downtown proposal for fear of losing out. Suburban stadiums have worked out well in other MLS locations, notably Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts (home of the New England Revolution and the NFL's New England Patriots) and Giants Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey (home of the New York Red Bulls, and the NFL's New York Giants and New York Jets).

As the Globe's Matthew Sekeres wrote in his excellent article last month, the team is quite happy to look at different stadium solutions.

"Maybe I underplay it, but I don't think it would make a difference," Lenarduzzi said. "What we're saying is, 'We can build it anywhere, just tell us where.'"
Five years later, that question awaits an answer.
In other communities, with a smidgen of political will and dollop of pressure from the local millionaire, an answer would've come in five minutes.

Perhaps the presence of political backing in Surrey (where landing a pro sports franchise would be a huge coup for the city) will be enough to get things done, or perhaps the idea of competition will produce new will in Vancouver to keep the team downtown (even though they currently play in another suburb, Burnaby). Either way, at least the team looks to have some options now.

Regardless of where the new soccer-specific stadium is located, one (and a preferably natural-grass one) is still desperately needed. However, this announcement on B.C. Place is very promising: it should give the Whitecaps a good jump on their bid for MLS by providing a suitable high-capacity venue for them to play in. In turn, the team gaining MLS status would put more pressure on local officials to get things done on a new stadium. It's rather a reverse of the normal model of stadium, then team, but a similar manuever worked for the Blue Jays many years ago: they got into Major League Baseball with the terrible confines of Exhibition Place on the promise that a new stadium would be built down the road, and then they were able to use that leverage to forge the political and financial support needed for the SkyDome. Let's hope stadium history can repeat itself in Vancouver.

Update: 7:42 P.M.: Jim Jamieson has a new story up on the expected deal.

Good moves, bad moves, you know he's made his share

It sounds like the days of John Gibbons as the manager of record for the Toronto Blue Jays may be numbered. Consider the opening paragraphs of Jeff Blair's Globe column after today's 5-2 win over Kansas City:

"John Gibbons had to do something because, let's be honest, there will come a time when the decision making is taken out of his hands.
He knows it, and has become increasingly open about how much longer he will or won't have to manage the Toronto Blue Jays. He's down to the short strokes, in other words, so it was only right and proper that he pull off a massive lineup shuffle Sunday."

This time, the lineup shuffle worked, the Jays came through with some key hits and the Royals gave them the game with several terrible errors. Thus, Gibbons may stick around for a while longer, but you can bet he's still on a short leash. I'm not entirely convinced firing him would make a huge difference, though.

Granted, Gibbons has made several very questionable moves lately. Refusing to use John McDonald, the appropriately-named Prime Minister of Defense (thanks Drunk Jays Fans) as a late-innings defensive replacement for David "Short and Scrappy" Eckstein is certainly one of them. Benching Frank Thomas for a slow start in order to use a stellar Rod Barajas at DH (which, of course led to the inevitable parting of the ways with Frank the Tank) is another, although there are questions about how much of that was contract-related pressure from above. Similar questions abound on the subject of Adam Lind's extended time in the minors after Thomas's departure, and whether it was a managerial move by Gibbons or a contract-related decision by J.P. Ricciardi.

We haven't gotten to one of the worst yet, though: Friday's decision to have Scott Downs intentionally walk Tony Pena Jr., he of the .156/.179/.203 numbers this season, to pitch to David DeJesus (.364/.405/.455) and set up a lefty/lefty matchup. DeJesus is actually hitting for a better average against lefties than righties this year (.412 vs .313), but his OPS drops from .921 against righties to .801 against lefties This is a small sample size, so let's look at his career numbers: .266/.343/.380 against southpaws versus .290/.366/.430 against right-handers. Sure, there's a drop there, but it isn't that huge. Pena, on the other hand, has hit slightly better against lefties than righties (.257/.276/.341 versus .251/.270/.338) over his career.

On the surface, both players seem to show that they follow the conventional wisdom of left-handers hitting better off righties and vice versa. Even with that, though, DeJesus is still hitting .266/.343/.380 against lefties over his career, compared to Pena's .257/.276/.341. Using the stats from this season, the discrepancy is even more glaring: Pena is hitting .125/.167/.188 against southpaws, while DeJesus has put up .412/.389/.412 numbers against LHP. Thus, Gibbons walked a guy with a .354 OPS against LHP this year to pitch to someone whose OBP and SLG numbers are both better than that! As Joe Posnanski wrote, "And finally, I’d say most of the intentional walks I see are INCREDIBLY STUPID strategic moves. The kind that make my teeth hurt. I’ve never seen a more offensive walk than Friday night. Never."

This one is pretty bad. It's overthinking on the level of Mr. Burns removing Darryl Strawberry to pinch-hit Homer Simpson instead, despite Strawberry's nine home runs ("It's called playing the percentages!"). Incidentally, Neate, Tyler and I agreed the other day that "Homer at the Bat" is one of the greatest Simpsons episodes ever, so apparently the universe can survive agreement between Tyler and myself (as long as it's only on minor points). Posnanski went on to say that he would have fired Gibbons on the spot: "I’m just telling you … I’d have fired somebody. I’m just telling you that intentionally walking Tony Pena Jr. or any other light-hitting middle infielder hitting .150 would be a fireable offense on my team. I’d have that written on a clubhouse sign."


(Brain Massage Images)

However, I'm not of a mind to fire Gibbons yet. Sure, he's made some bad decisions, but he's also made some very good ones. I liked the hit-and-run calls today to force the issue, and one had the nice side effect of snapping Vernon Wells out of a slump. As Darrin Fletcher (the baseball player and Sportsnet commentator, not the Manchester United winger) pointed out on today's broadcast, you don't usually call a hit and run with someone like Wells at the plate, but when they're in an 0 for 15 slump, it sometimes makes sense. I know from my own playing days that you're often overthinking and trying to do too much when you get into a protracted slump, and the manager creating a situation where you're aiming to just get contact (and have pressure on you to do so) seems like an inventive slump-breaker in my books.

As Blair points out, there are some good things about the new lineup as well: Alex Rios did very well out of the leadoff spot, and Scott Rolen turned in a great performance batting third. Gibbons also can't really be blamed for many of the team's struggles to this point, which, as Mike Wilner points out, have had much more to do with their terrible batting performance with runners in scoring position. Better minds than I, including Blair, Wilner and Dustin Parkes have come to the conclusion that Gibbons isn't at fault and shouldn't be fired yet, so I'm inclined to agree. Managers make a hell of a lot of decisions every day: some work out brilliantly, some are passable, and some are horrendous failures. Gibbons might need some more brain massaging to avoid moves like walking Tony Pena Jr., but unlike Posnanski, I wouldn't fire him purely for that. Until we see far more managerial moves in the "horrendous failure" category, firing Gibbons would be a move that's purely for show and highly unlikely to right the ship.

As an aside: Alex Rios proved today why speed and good decision-making on the basepaths are still valuable assets, as he managed to score from first on a Scott Rolen single when Jose Guillen threw to second base. It was a great call by third-base coach Marty Pevey, but he doesn't even have the chance to make that call if someone slower, say Matt Stairs, is on first base, as they might not even get past second on that hit. Speed isn't the be-all and end-all, but it's a nice tool to have. Baseball Prospectus' Nate Silver made a strong case for the value of speed a while back, so I'll leave the summary to him.

"The last question, of course, is how much baserunning really matters. And the general rule of thumb is that it can make about a win’s worth of difference at the extremes: a really fast/skilled baserunner will produce about 8-10 extra runs for his team on a going-forward basis as compared with a really slow/terrible baserunner. Or, if you prefer, a great baserunner will produce about an extra half-win for his team (4-5 runs) per season versus an average baserunner.

This is nothing to sneeze at. Baserunning is another in that category of things that might be overrated by the mainstream media, but has nevertheless been underrated by sabermetricians. "

Couldn't have said it better myself.

Jays: Adios to Frank the Tank

The Blue Jays released designated hitter Frank Thomas today, one day after he expressed disappointment at being benched. Jeff Blair has a great column up about how the real reason was due to Thomas' well-known contract, which would have automatically given him an extension for 2010 if he recorded 304 more plate appearances this year. Of course, J.P. Ricciardi, that paragon of truth, absolutely denied that the contract came into it.

"That never came up," Ricciardi told the Canadian Press with regards to the contract issue. "I told Frank our decision is based on performance and his decision is based on not being able to be in the lineup." Pull the other one, J.P., it hath bells on. It would make these decisions a lot easier for Jays' fans to accept if their general manager would tell us the truth once in a while instead of lies that blatantly insult the fanbase's intelligence.

I'm conflicted about this decision. From a financial point of view, it makes some sense, especially for next season: this allows the Jays to perhaps bring Adam Lind along sooner and also potentially creates an opening for Travis Snider, rather than blocking their path to the majors with a 41-year-old DH. It also lets them get Matt Stairs' bat in the lineup on a more regular basis without dealing with his slowness in the field. However, I think this might weaken the Jays this season. Sure, Thomas has struggled so far, but he's always been a poor hitter early in the season: last year, he hit just .250 in April and .193 in May before recovering late in the campaign to lead the team in both homers (26) and RBIs (95). Even in his great 2006 season with Oakland (.270/.381/.545, 140 OPS+, 39 HR, finished fourth in MVP voting), he hit .190 in April and .268 in May. That year also came after Kenny Williams and the White Sox got rid of him, invoking a "diminished skills" clause and bringing in Jim Thome to replace him, so he had plenty of motivation to get going early.

Thomas has just never been able to hit early: even in what was probably his best statistical season in 1994, when he won his second MVP in a row and hit a ridiculous .353/.487/.729 with a OPS+ of 211 and 38 HR in only 113 games, he batted .295 in April, his lowest average for any month in that year (except August, where he hit .211 in only 9 games before injury forced him out for the rest of the year). Thus, even though Blair raises doubt about his current batting mechanics, there's every chance he'll sign on with another team and have a typically strong second half. Next year is a bit more of a question, and is probably why the Jays made this move, but Thomas certainly has plenty of motivation now to prove he can still play. It may not have been wise to light a fire under him this way, especially if he winds up with a team that can challenge for the wild card and further reduce the Jays' post-season chances.

Leaving behind the logic and stats for a moment, I'm disappointed in this move from a purely emotional fan's perspective. Thomas has always been my favorite player, ever since I got Frank Thomas Big Hurt Baseball for Super Nintendo back in the day (by far the best baseball game I've ever played). My admiration for him has only grown over the years, and his signing with the Jays made it easy for me to switch my primary allegiance to them after I moved out this way. He's constantly been willing to speak his mind, even on controversial issues like steroids, and was the only active player to voluntarily talk with the Mitchell Report investigators. In this era of uncertainty, he's one player I can feel confident in admiring without having to worry about future revelations of steroid abuse. I hate to see a good guy treated this way due to financial concerns, especially when Ted Rogers is rolling in the dough. I also loved how he went out to Oakland and showed Williams and the White Sox up with his play. He got kicked around in Chicago, but he managed to prove his detractors wrong: I've got a feeling he may do the same here, which isn't good news for the Jays.

Related:
- Neate's take at Out of Left Field
- Bergkamp weighs in at Drunk Jays Fans
- White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen tells MLB.com's Brittany Ghiroli what he thinks of the decision
- Some support for the move over at The Tao of Steib
- Joanna from Hum and Chuck is also disappointed over how this went down